3. Los Angeles Kings
There are few things that are complete certainties in life, but one of them is the LA Kings will finish in third place in the division. Why do I say that? Well, it's simple, the Kings are really the last of the teams in the Pacific division that I can 100% call playoff contenders. There are two more teams in a tier below the Kings which may or may not make the playoffs as a wild card, but other than the Canucks and Oilers the Kings are really the only other team I can say with 100% certainty are making the playoffs. That being said, I don't consider the Kings to be Cup contenders or better than either the Canucks or Oilers.
The Kings' top six attack IMO is best described as solid if unspectacular - toothless if not without it's charm, if you will, the latter most definitely applies after you compare it to the lethal attacks of the Canucks and Oilers.
The Kings top line comprises two of it's top three scorers - Anze Kopitar, who somehow still manages to remain relevant at 37, put up 26 goals and 70 points for the Kings last season, buoyed by leading scorer Adrian Kempe, he of 28 goals and 75 points. Rounding out the first line is Alex Laferriere, who will be entering only his second season in the league and put up a mere 12-11-23 and a -14 in 81 games last season. They better hope he takes a step forward this season otherwise they're wasting a roster spot on a guy best played further down in the lineup.
The second line, ironically, follows much the same pattern. It's centered by Quinton Byfield, who is a former first round pick of the Kings and broke through with 20 goals last season. He'll crack the 200 game mark for the Kings this season so they'll know more of what they have in him as the season goes on. On one flank for Byfield will be dynamic scorer Kevin Fiala, who put up 29 goals and 73 points last season. Rounding out the second line is ex-Oiler Warren Foegele, who was signed by LA as cheap scoring help after Viktor Arvidsson departed for the Oilers. Foegele spent last season playing up and down the lineup, and cracked the 20 goal mark in the process. He seemed ready for an expanded role, but there will less insulation for him in LA so it's unclear exactly how he'll perform in an expanded role with more pressure. Only way to know that is to play the games.
In the past couple of years with the additions of Byfield, Laferriere, and Foegele to the top six that means inevitably some guys get bumped down the lineup. In the case of the Kings, that's three guys, which then brings us to their third line, or as I call it, the moneybags line. The reason I call it the moneybags line is two of three of these players are capable of playing in the top six forward group and all did at one time, but now are banished to the third line. This line consists of Tanner Jeannot-Phillip Danault-Trevor Moore. Why do I call this the moneybags line? Jeannot's cap hit is $2.665 million, Danault's is $5.5 million, while Trevor Moore's is $4.2 million. All except for Jeannot are signed for multiple seasons. Now don't get me wrong, all of these are solid players, but Jeannot is really the only one who is a true blue bottom six forward, and he's overpaid at over $2 million. For the record, the Kings are paying $15.365 million for this third line. FOR A THIRD LINE! WHAT IN THE BLEEP IS ROB BLAKE THINKING HERE? THIS IS A TERRIBLE USE OF CAP SPACE! It becomes even more apparent when you see that Trevor Moore scored 31 goals last season - how does a guy like that deserve to get buried on the third line? You're telling me the much more unproven Warren Foegele is a better candidate for that spot than a 31 goal scorer? Absolutely ridiculous.
The fourth line is where you can see that the Kings are saving cap space seeing as how none of them make over $1,000,000 a season. Raw prospects Akil Thomas and Alex Turcotte, second and fifth round picks respectively, will be full time NHLers for the first time in their careers. Meanwhile the veteran tasked with supporting and mentoring them will be Trevor Lewis, a member of the old core that helped the Kings win two cups in 2012 and 2014, who was reacquired and subsequently rescued from the Calgary Flames (more on that later) for a second tour of duty in LA. Now don't get me wrong, Lewis is a fine bottom six forward who puts up offense at slightly above the minimum for a fourth liner (16 points last season for the Kings) and fine defensively at a +7 last season, the problem is that Lewis is now 37, and there's a good chance he may have lost a step which may limit the effectiveness of the fourth line.
Which then brings us to the defence. The puck moving portion of LA's system tends to live and die with Drew Doughty, which will be a problem since Doughty is actually out with injury as he just underwent surgery to repair a fractured ankle and is listed as out "month to month" so that can't be a good sign. On the plus side, Doughty's cap hit is $11 million a season, so if he stays on LTIR long enough, the Kings will accumulate some pretty good LTIR cap space and might be able to snag a good veteran blueliner at the trade deadline.
Without Doughty, the King's defense looks rather wanting. Their new top pairing is Mikey Anderson, whose career best in 20 points, and Jordan Spence, a 23 year old with a mere 101 NHL games to his name who just broke open last season with 24 points. Their second pairing consists of Vladislav Gavrikov, who ever since moving from an inferior team in Columbus to the Kings has become one of the NHL's best defensive defencemen, second only perhaps to Mattias Ekholm. He has about as much puck moving ability, though, as everyone else on this list as he put up 23 points last season, so counting on him to replace Doughty's point singlehandedly would be a mistake. VG's partner will be righty Kyle Burroughs, a very vanilla player who played on a rebuilding Sharks team last year and put up a ghastly -42 from a defensive perspective, which may singlehandedly reduce the second pairing to swiss cheese unless Gavrikov can severely overcompensate for it. The third pairing consists of veteran Joel Edmondson, widely acknowledged as one of the better bottom pairing d-men in the league, and prospect Brandt Clarke making his way up to the NHL, on likely sooner than what the Kings were hoping but having no choice at least in the short term until Doughty is healed. Clarke, a former first round pick of the Kings from 2021, certainly has potential to be great as he put up 46 points in 50 for the Ontario Reign, the Kings farm team. Whether this roster spot was simply gifted to him in the wake of Doughty's injury or whether he legitimately earned it is unclear at this point in time.
Which then brings us to the Kings goaltenders. The Kings reacquired Darcy Kuemper to tend the nets for them, but they seem to have failed to realize that Kuemper, while he is abundantly talented, is essentially made of glass. In 13 years in the NHL, Kuemper has only cracked the 50 game mark three times. That's it. He's spent more time on the shelf than a Christmas fruitcake. Now that being said, when the guy is healthy he's a fantastic goalie - heck, he backstopped the Avs to the Cup in 2022 after putting up a .921 sv% and a 2.54 GAA. The problem is, you never know from one season to the next whether or not Kuemper will stay healthy. This is a huge role of the dice to the tune of over $15 million for three seasons. It's also worth noting that Kuemper is 34 now, do you think his injury issues will get worse or better as he ages? I'll save you the suspense - it's 99% sure to be the former. Backing up Kuemper will be what for the most part has been a career backup in David Rittich, aside from two seasons with the Flames over four years ago. in 24 games for the Kings last season, Rittich put up a .921 sv% and a 2.15 GAA. That being said, he also spent 16 games playing for the Reign last season, so that doesn't really inspire confidence.
I'm basing my rank here on the best case scenario for the Kings - that Doughty is back in the lineup sooner rather than later and Kuemper stays healthy all season, because when healthy I still believe that the Kings are better than the next two teams on the list. But, I will be the first to admit that if all the dominoes don't fall the Kings' way that my prediction will be wrong and the Kings will fall down the standings. The Kings also have some work to do as the coaching staff has made a bizarre move to play Warren Foegele higher in the lineup than Trevor Moore, and that GM Rob Blake has screwed up the team's cap space by a) not trading at least one of Danault or Moore for a great haul in trade and b) signing a goalie known for a long injury history.
Tell you what, if the Kings win the Cup this year and everything I've predicted is out to lunch, I'll eat my hat. How about that? :)