Time is running short on the 2025/26 regular season in the National Hockey League. Playoff berths will be locked up in the coming days, alongside division, conference and league winners. The Edmonton Oilers have 12 games remaining on their schedule and a reasonable shot at first place in the Pacific Division. Will they manage it? And who are they most likely to face in Round 1 as a result?
The Oilers' remaining schedule is as follows:
If my estimation of the team's performance down the stretch is accurate, , they' could go 7-3-2 and grab up to 16 additional standings points. Edmonton has a few things working in their favour. Most of their remaining games are against divisional foes or non-playoff teams. Also, by mid-April, a lot of the picture may be set. The Avs may rest players in a game that has little meaning for them, and the Canucks (and potentially Kings) will have little to play for other than acting as spoiler for Edmonton.
Working against them is their tendency to lose matinee games, and the challenges they've had in putting away young and talented teams like the Sharks and Ducks. The Oilers should beat the Mammoth, Kraken and Kings, and the Golden Knights can't keep other clubs from scoring on them this season.
Opposing schedules
Without going into the same level of predictive detail, the Ducks have a similar strength of schedule, with arguably more games against lesser opponents. It may come down to the head-to-head match up, or the Oilers may never get an opportunity to pull alongside the Ducks in terms of games played AND standings points.
The Golden Knights similarly should win several more games. The determining factor will be the two games between the Oilers and Knights, and I have Edmonton coming out on top. That's been the story of the season series and both clubs should be equally desperate as the clock winds down.
Of all the teams trailing those three, the Mammoth seem likely to secure a wildcard spot, and then my prediction is the Sharks take the last. Loser points in overtime games should mean Utah's current 5 point lead holds up, and the other chasing teams (Kraken, Kings, Predators) have their individual holes that seem bigger than those of the Sharks.
All these imperfect calculations should see Edmonton finish second in the division, securing home ice advantage in Round 1 and playing the Golden Knights. That's a series Edmonton should win, assuming Leon Draisaitl returns at 100% and Connor Ingram's strong recent play continues into the postseason.