The third round showdown is now set and Edmonton will play against a familiar opponent. Many in the city remember the battles between Dallas and Edmonton in years past. The Oilers have had memorable games against Dallas that dates back to the hard fought 1997 playoff series with three overtime games included a double OT game (Edmonton won this series). The 2001 battle with Dallas had four OT games with one 4-3 and another 3-1 game (Edmonton lost that series).
In fact, since 1997, the Oilers have had seven playoff series vs Dallas with the Stars winning five of them and Edmonton winning the 1997 Western Conference Quarterfinals and the 2024 Western Conference finals only. They did face each other in 1984 and 1991 while the Stars were the Minnesota North Stars, trading series wins.
The Oilers and Stars have played in 201 regular and playoff season games to 2024. The Oilers have an overall record of 76-105-15-5 (41.5 percent success) against the Stars. However, in the last 20 games, the Edmonton Oilers are 11-9-0 versus the Stars (55 percent success).
These statistics reveal two things: archived history favours the Stars winning this series, but recent history favours the Oilers. The Oilers have a belief and desire to get to the Stanley Cup Final again. They have been winning with desire, passion and a team game that is being exemplified by the play of Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Mathias Janmark, Corey Perry, Jake Walman and many others.
These are not the superstars but stars none the less. They, and basically the entire team, have risen to the occasion to be the best they can be in each and every game. The entire roster of Oilers players are unified in how they play and what needs to be done to win.
Can the Oilers repeat and punch a ticket to the Stanley Cup Finals?
Ever since game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final vs Florida in 2024, Oilers fans have been wondering if this team can elevate themselves to the same level they did in 2024, in order to make it the Stanley Cup Final in 2025? For most of the regular season we still kept wondering that, even to game 82!
However, something inspired our hockey team to flip a switch in game 85 into the team you see now. We cannot explain it, but it happened in the third period of game 3 in the LA series and the team has not looked back since. They have made us believe in them and in their ability to close out a series.
Keys to Round 3 success fo Oilers vs Dallas
In rounds 1 and 2, we saw a very offensive Oilers team become very defensive and they choked the Vegas Golden Knights' offense. Both the LA Kings and Vegas Golden Knights were very offensive teams in the regular season with goal differentials of +44 and + 56 respectively, but in their series with Edmonton they were -3 and -6 respectively by the conclusion.
Thus, Edmonton’s defensive core (without Mattias Ekholm) have been an amazing force to reckon with. For success against Dallas (a +53 goal differential in the regular season), they will need to continue to have the solid defensive play and push Dallas and Mikko Rantanen to the boards to break up any offensive game they may have. Dallas is a deep team also but I think the Oilers defense will be effective against the Stars.
The Oilers are still trying to find their footing with special teams. The powerplay is yet to rise to being a threat every time they have one and the penalty kill has leaked goals. Dallas has a 30.8 percent powerplay and an 89 percent penalty kill. Special teams may make the difference in this series and Edmonton has to find success with both the PP and PK.
Edmonton has to go back to high velocity movements on the powerplay and take more shots from the slot. Connor McDavid has to shoot more on the powerplay and maybe needs to be in that one-timer position that Leon Draisaitl is normally in.
Another idea is to replace Draisaitl on the #1 powerplay unit as his lack of control of the puck on their powerplay has been a major reason why the Oilers powerplay is not higher than 25.0 percent. Draisaitl seems hesitant and much slower than he normally is, suggestuing an injury that prevents him from keeping up with McDavid and having his wicked one-timer shot to score.
Kane, John Klingberg (who excelled at the powerplay while playing for Dallas) and Adam Henrique could all be excellent substitutes for Draisaitl on the first powerplay unit. They need someone to make that powerplay a threatening force and no time is better than in round 3.
Oilers goaltending will also be a key to success in round 3. Calvin Pickard carried the Oilers to round 2 and Stuart Skinner to round 3. Both have had some weak games, but both have also played outstanding when faced with the need to win. Skinner is just coming off back-to-back shutout wins and we all hope is ready to face the Dallas Stars.
History does suggest that with rest, Skinner comes to play with big game saves to give the team a chance to win. Pickard has the same mentality, but in a more consistent manner without feeling fatigue. So, it will be interesting to see how the Oilers' goaltending dilemma plays out (from a fan perspective as I think the coach already has a goaltending plan).
This will be very similar series to 2024 Dallas-Edmonton playoff series
This will be a hard fought series with two teams who know each other well from the 2024 series, but with a twist. Dallas has a new scoring weapon in Rantanen but has only seen 60 percent of the players in the Oilers current roster. Edmonton did not add a superstar for the 2025 playoffs, but certainly added third and fourth line players with grit, passion and a solid defensive game.
The Oilers have a very different look in their team in 2025 and they are capable of winning this series. McDavid and Draisaitl were very convincing in defensive roles against Vegas, but will breakout this round and be a significant part of the offence vs Dallas.
Combine this with a solid defensive game by the Oilers, continued depth scoring and increased output by the special team will drive them to success against Dallas. I predict an Oilers win in six but it will be hard fought games with a few overtime victories.
Oilers fans are ready for another showdown with an old enemy that will bring back memories and make new memories for younger fans. Go Oilers Go.
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