The inspiration for this blog was David Staples's article in the Edmonton Journal on Monday, found here. But whereas Staples uses fancy stats and melodrama for the explanation, I can explain it much simpler and less extravagantly than he can.
That might sound arrogant at first, but hear me out (metaphorically, to be exact). I will say that I 100 percent agree with Staples's assertions that these two lineup changes need to be made, so let's get that out of the way right now. Let's explore both of these changes and why they make sense right about now.
Lineup change #1 - Trent Frederic out, Jeff Skinner in
Now I know what you're thinking - isn't this a bit reckless as we're changing out a physical force for something that we already have in abundance on the roster as it is - scoring touch? At first blush it might seem that way, but let's look past the surface of this.
Trent Frederic's calling card is as a physical player who can also score. As far as his impact on the playoffs so far, here's what it is - he's not much of a shot blocker but he is a pretty good hitter. This is born out by the numbers as Frederic is currently third on the Oilers in hits for the playoffs with 31 hits - third only to Zach Hyman (of all people) who leads the team with 61 hits, with the silver medal going to Vasily Podkolzin with 39 hits. That's pretty good, no question about it. What's a bit surprising, though, is that Frederic is only fourth on the Oilers in hits/60 with 18.34. Of the three players that are ahead of him, two are not surprising as they are Hyman and Podkolzin, again. The other name, though? Jeff Skinner.
I know, right? Shocked the hell out of me too. Skinner is second (!) on the Oilers in hits/60 with 26.78 in the one game he's played in the playoffs so far. He's most definitely elevated his physical game as compared to the regular season, when his hits/60 were a mere 2.88, see for yourself. That was good enough for 13th on the team in the regular season.
Now Skinner is a guy who's known as a finesse sniper type of player - he has a nose for the net and a history of getting there. He didn't get there in the one playoff game he's played so far, but we can hardly crucify him for that as one game is not an indication of long term anything. Compare this to Frederic who has put up 1-2-3 in the nine games he's played so far - that's OK, but nothing special.
So what we're getting when we make the switch here is we're getting a guy in Skinner who can replace Frederic's hitting and then some, plus has better hands and packs more offensive punch onto the third line. In game three the Oilers had problems scoring goals at times during the game, so the insertion of Skinner into the lineup makes the Oilers third line more dangerous offensively on a more consistent basis - which is exactly what this team needs right now. Imagine Connor Brown teaming up with Skinner on this line and what it can do - Brown has had a sensational playoffs as it is, with a player like Skinner on the other side this is bound to elevate both him and Adam Henrique to new levels, at least on paper.
It wouldn't make sense to compare the two defensively at this point as again, Skinner has played a mere one playoff game.