Much like Superman in DC Comics, the Edmonton Oilers have a weakness. For the Man of Steel, it has always been kryptonite, that meteoric rock from his home planet that steals his invincibility and awesome powers. The Oilers' version of kryptonite is equally potent. The team cannot escape, and when they come in contact with this Achilles heel, victory is far from assured. That weakness, of course, is matinee games.
An afternoon game has meant a loss more often than not for the Oilers, although their overall matinee statistics aren't readily available. It feels true, because we've all seen it happen time and again. But on Saturday afternoon, the team needs to find a way past whatever it is that's preventing early day success, because this game is a "must win."
Ducks have pulled ahead
The Anaheim Ducks have done something that has evaded Edmonton this season; namely, winning four games in a row. That has created a late season gap in the standings that may be insurmountable, but the only remaining path to a divisional title is a win on Saturday afternoon.
That 4-point swing, moving the Oilers within 3 points of Anaheim while ending the Ducks' win streak and allowing them no points in the process, keeps the dream alive. They'll still need help, mostly from non-playoff and Wildcard ranked teams who face the Ducks in the final weeks of the season, but Edmonton has a similarly light final schedule so the points are there and the gap isn't too large quite yet.
Playoff Implications
The results on Saturday matter for another, arguably more important reason than seeding. Edmonton's path to a Western Conference Final very likely will take them through Anaheim. A late season Ducks collapse is unlikely to put them further back than third in the division making them a likely first or second round opponent, and the more likely first place finish means they'll only have to defeat a Wildcard team (odds are on Mammoth or Predators) before they're in the Oilers' way in the Divisional Final. Beating the Ducks could give Edmonton the mental edge in a Playoff Series.
Though the Oilers are 1-2 versus the Ducks this season, they have a high likelihood of possessing most of the playoff seeding tiebreakers. Ties are complex when it comes to NHL standings, but winning in regulation time is the first (Oilers currently have 27 versus the Ducks' 24). Winning in regulation or overtime (not in the shootout) is the second tiebreaker, and Edmonton also holds an advantage there (36 to 33). A win ties the season series and gives Edmonton the goal differential edge as well.
All those calculations have to wait until the season is over before they really mean anything, and even then they only matter if Edmonton can find a way to catch the Ducks. That won't happen if they lose on Saturday afternoon, so bring on the heroics.