The Restricted Free Agent (RFA) offer sheet has been around for a long time. They first appeared in the 1988 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), though the process has evolved significantly since then, and the Edmonton Oilers have been involved in their fair share. There have actually been eight times when a team proposed a contract to an Oiler RFA, with the most recent being the St. Louis Blues' double offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg.
The compensation a team receives has always been dependent on specific factors. Originally it was connected to player age, and often roster players were sent to the original team if they declined to match. But over a number of CBAs, that evolved to draft pick compensation, determined by the dollar value of the deal. The current $18 million saga with Leo Carlsson of the ̶P̶h̶i̶l̶a̶d̶e̶l̶p̶h̶i̶a̶ ̶F̶l̶y̶e̶r̶s̶Anaheim Ducks is worth 4 first round selections if the Ducks decline to match.
Ungentlemanly warfare
The Oilers have been on the other side a few offer sheets as well. The $50 million, seven year deal offered to Thomas Vanek (matched by the Buffalo Sabres), and the ensuing offer sheet to the Ducks' Dustin Penner that made him an Olier, and so famously pissed off Ducks general manager Brian Burke. Given the many times the small market Oilers were the ones losing a valued asset, Burke's indignance certainly seemed outsized.
Today it appears the gloves are truly off. Every NHL GM is looking to find an edge, and offer sheets can help in two ways. First of all, it's a path toward securing a proven roster piece, with an existing NHL track record. The player is usually a known commodity, so questions about development timelines and skill gaps are easily answered, but that's only the first half of the strategy. The second is about making your opponents worse.
Looking at the Flyers' offer sheet, it would make Carlsson the highest paid player in the NHL. Carlsson is a great player, but last season he was 57th in league scoring. His point totals have risen in each of his initial three seasons on the Ducks, but he will need to take a significant step forward to deliver value on an $18 million per year deal. Frankly the odds are against it, but they're also against any of the four compensatory picks turning into another Carlsson. So the Ducks are getting a raw deal both ways. If they match, they're tying up valuable cap space just when their team is showing signs of turning into a contender. If they let Carlsson walk, they'll be searching for a replacement immediately.
As Edmonton enters what is potentially one of their last true shots at winning the Stanley Cup with Connor McDavid, they can't afford to let what happened with Holloway and Broberg happen again, and they can't cross their fingers and hope the rest of the league plays nice. Every dollar spent needs to be spent considered carefully, because even a good deal could haunt the Oilers if it loses them someone else down the road.
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