Evan Bouchard was sitting on top of the metaphorical hill following the 2023-24 campaign. He was coming off his best season yet in the NHL, which including career highs of 18 goals, 64 assists, 82 total points and a +34 rating, as he finished fifth in Norris Trophy voting.
Bouchard then took his game to another level during the Oilers' playoff run all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. His +14 rating led all players, while his 32 points were second only to Connor McDavid and the third-most ever by a defenceman (including an NHL record 26 assists by a blue line).
Even the Oilers' decision to delay contract extension talks with Bouchard until he became a restricted fee agent after this season, didn't seem like too much of an issue. He was going to get taken care of eventually, with speculation having him ending up earning somewhere between $9-$10 million per season on a multi-year deal.
Not quite as popular so far in 2024-25
Well, that was then and this is now, with things no longer looking quite as rosy for Bouchard. Yes, he's still doing well enough offensively -- albeit not as well as last season -- but his defensive lapses are becoming more noticeable, with Monday night versus the Florida Panthers offering just the latest examples of his costly mistakes.
To be clear, this is not about putting all the blame at Bouchard's feet - there have been plenty of costly errors by most Oilers players this season. However, where it impacts the 25-year-old specifically, is in respect of how much the organisation might be willing to now offer him on his next deal.
In fact, is it even possible that the Oilers may avoid paying Bouchard altogether and instead look to trade him? Giving due credit to Jim Parsons of NHL Trade Talk, this is something which Paul Almeida is asking.
Formerly with TSN 1260, Almeida wonders if the Oilers should sign Bouchard to a lucrative extension, or see what his value is on the trade market. As he quite rightly points out, there would be plenty of interest in the 2018 10th overall draft pick.
What will the Oilers do with Bouchard?
In truth, it does depend how confident the Oilers are in Bouchard's ability to cut out the defensive mistakes, which have followed him ever since he came to the NHL. While no one doubts his ability to continue being an offensive force, is this enough to make up for continuing to cost the team with errors which are often avoidable?
If the Oilers do decide to go down this path, they would undoubtedly want a quality defenceman in return, and probably one who also isn't prone to as many mistakes at the wrong end of the ice. There may also be the chance for the team to save some money over the long-term, as opposed to forking out up to $10 million per season on Bouchard's next contract.
When discussing this, it's tough to not think about how the Oilers already lost a quality defenceman just this past offseason, in the form of Philip Broberg. How this impacts general manager Stan Bowman's approach with Bouchard, will be interesting to see.
Overall, we would still hedge our bets towards Bouchard remaining with the team in the long-term. However, we appreciate that the Oilers owe it to themselves to at least perform their due diligence and see what the market is like for him, at which point our predicted scenario could quickly become null and void.