The Edmonton Oilers are heading toward a reckoning on their blueline and not everyone wearing orange and blue will make it to the postseason. While three young defensemen have been logging minutes throughout the regular season, insider Kurt Leavins is calling it now.
Apparently, two of them will be watching from the press box when playoff hockey arrives and it has to do with something far more valuable in April and May in experience under pressure.
Leavins didn't mince words when laying out his prediction. The veteran analyst believes championship teams simply cannot afford to carry multiple inexperienced defenders into the playoff crucible where one mistake can end a season and veteran savvy often separates winners from also-rans.
It seems among Spencer Stastney, Alec Regula and Ty Emberson, only one appears destined to remain in the nightly rotation when the stakes reach their highest point.
The lack of playoff reps that could cost two defenders
Here's the sobering reality. These three defensemen have combined for just 12 playoff games in their entire careers. Stastney has three postseason appearances to his name, Emberson has nine and Regula has exactly zero. That's not the resume you want when facing the gauntlet of Stanley Cup playoff hockey.
"I foresee that by the time the playoffs arrive only one of the Oilers three young D-men will still be in the lineup every night," Leavins explained. He was careful to note this isn't about their futures with Edmonton and that all three could develop into solid NHL contributors. But winning a championship? That's a different calculation entirely.
"I do not think you win a cup with more than one inexperienced man back there at a time," Leavins stated.
What the stats say about who stays and who goes
Stastney arrived from Nashville with nine points already on the board but hasn't found the scoresheet since pulling on an Oilers jersey. His minus-4 rating suggests defensive struggles, though adjusting to a new system mid-season presents legitimate challenges.
Regula's season has been rougher still. Just 3 points across 27 games paired with a brutal minus-16 rating. Those are numbers that make coaches nervous. When you're on the ice for 16 more goals against than for, you're fighting an uphill battle for playoff roster spots regardless of potential.
Then there's Emberson whose 8 points in 40 games might not jump off the page, but his plus-6 rating absolutely does. He's the only member of this trio showing positive defensive results which matters infinitely more than offense from your bottom-pairing blueliners.
Why Emberson survives the cut
Leavins seems convinced Emberson is the man who stays and the reasoning holds water. While acknowledging that Stastney skates better and Regula might have the highest ceiling down the road, he identified Emberson as "the closest" to being playoff-ready right now.
Coaching trust explains everything. Emberson has accumulated more NHL experience in fewer seasons because multiple coaching staffs have relied on him consistently. He has carved out a crucial role as a top penalty killer and according to NHL tracking data, he has significantly improved the team's goals-against rate per hour when he is on the ice.
Operating primarily from the third pairing at even strength, Emberson has become indispensable on special teams. When injuries have struck, he has even been trusted with second-pairing minutes which is again not something coaches do unless they genuinely believe a player can handle elevated responsibility.
The cold reality of championship windows
With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in their primes and the memory of last season's Stanley Cup Final appearance still fresh, this franchise is operating in win-now mode. There's no room for on-the-job learning when every shift could be your last of the season.
For Stastney and likely Regula, this means an uncomfortable spring ahead either watching from above or potentially returning to the AHL if roster moves are necessary. Emberson's reliable defensive work and penalty-killing expertise might have actually earned him the right to stay in the fight when the games matter most.
As the trade deadline looms and playoff positioning tightens, expect general manager Stan Bowman to address defensive depth through acquisition. The Oilers learned harsh lessons about roster construction during their playoff run last year and they're not about to repeat mistakes when the championship window is wide open.