The Edmonton Oilers entered the Olympic break are in an uncomfortable spot in the NHL standings. They sit four points behind the first place Vegas Golden Knights in the Pacific Division but they have multiple teams closing in. The Anaheim Ducks, Seattle Kraken and even the Los Angeles Kings are not far behind with games in hand if the Oilers sloppy play continues.
The Kings especially present an issue after their recent acquisition of Russian star Artemi Panarin.
Oilers poor home record in January
January was a frustrating month for the Edmonton Oilers. Normally a great home team, they were under 0.500 in win percentage at home in January after a 5 win record in 8 home games in December. The losses in December and January have been due to inadequate penalty killing that has averaged 73.9% since December 1, a statistic that is in the range of the bottom 5 teams like St. Louis, Ottawa Senators, Seattle Kraken and the disaster that is the Vancouver Canucks.Â
Prior to December 1, the Oilers actually had their PK at over 80 percent. In fact, for a month between December 23 and January 22, they only allowed three powerplay goals in 34 chances for an amazing rate of 91.2% . But, in true Oilers fashion, in the last five games before the Olympic break, the PK was at a dismal 35.7%! What on Earth is happening with this team and instability of the PK? I do not think even the players can explain these statistics. Thankfully, the powerplay was still league best during these periods at over 31% and at times over 34%.
The effect of the Stuart Skinner trade
Stuart Skinner and Brett Kulak were traded in December and we are still coming to terms with how the loss of those two players have affected the play of The Edmonton Oilers.
Skinner is 7-1-0 in his last 8 starts with the Penguins with a 1.63 goals against average and 0.934 save percentage. Â In comparison, Jarry has gone 5-4-1 in the last 10 games with a 3.72 GAA and a 0.868 save percentage. Brett Kulak was a minus seven in 31 games for the Oilers but is now a plus two in 25 games for the Penguins. I think you can see where this is going. The Oilers D-core is a plus 33 on the season with Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, and Ty Emberson but a combined minus 42 for the rest of the defensive core that includes a minus 11 for Darnell Nurse and minus 16 for Alec Regula. Not great statistics for a $9.25 million dollar defenseman and a future defenseman!
So, once again you can see where this conversation is headed – we are not better since Skinner/Kulak trade but actually worse in the back end and in goal. Nurse is not playing like a $9.25 million dollar/year defenseman again and will finish this season with the lowest amount of points in a season. Regula has not really adjusted well and cannot make up for the poor defensive play of Nurse.
Guess what, Kulak was a regular partner for Nurse before being traded and thus a very important part of that duo. It is safe to say that Nurse’s play has suffered since the Skinner/Kulak trade.  Nurse has been a liability this year and the Oilers management need to find a stable, reliable partner for him or trade him for better players that can play a more defensive game needed in the playoffs.
Rumoured changes behind the bench
There is a lot of rumours right now about the return of Paul Coffey and having him back might be a very smart move. Â Mark Stuart, a former NHL defenseman, is now in charge of both special teams and that might be too much for him. The Edmonton Oilers have a high end powerplay that needs careful management from the players that run it (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) and they do that very well.
Careful management from the coaches is needed for the penalty kill and, traditionally, more attention during game play depending on who the opponents are. There is a clear need for coaching help for the PK as it does seem like the Oilers just do not want/care to play smart on the PK. What else would explain a PK percentage of 35.7% in the last five games before Olympic break? Â I hope the rumors are true and having Paul Coffey back will be great to settle the defensive chaos that we currently see.
The excessive minutes of McDavid and Draisaitl
Oilers fans have two of the most dynamic players in the world. We are very lucky to have these players and often it is a curse as Oilers coaches want to play them together. As such, the coaches do not play some of the bottom-six wingers as often as they could play them. Â If we did not have Connor and Leon outscoring our defensive/goaltending mistakes in the past month or two, we would be in the position of the Florida Panthers - out of a playoff spot in February.
Connor and Leon clock over 23 minutes per game and often play more than half of an overtime 3-on-3 period. I think we can all see how tiring this is on them and this was very evident in the recent overtime win by the Oilers against the Sharks when Draisaitl had to leave the play due to tiredness. A fresh Hyman came on and took an awesome feed from McDavid to score. Â Smart decision on Draisaitl's part as I do not think the coaches asked him to do that.
Leon and Connor need to play less minutes per game and especially as we head to the playoffs. We need both of them rested and healthy for any push to the Stanley Cup finals. Looking at other stars, they tend to play much less.
Sidney Crosby has won three Stanley Cups and has an average time on ice between 18 to 20 minutes; Nathan MacKinnon has won one Stanley Cup and is a consistent cup contender, averaging between 20 and 22 minutes per game; Nikita Kucherov has won two Stanley Cups and has averaged 19 to 20 minutes per game; Connor and Leon have averaged over 23 minutes (often approaching 25 minutes) per game and have won 0 Stanley Cups.  Again, data to support my point – Leon and Connor are being overplayed during games. This overplay is catching up to them and it has shown itself during some games, such as the 1-0 loss to the New York Islanders, the 3-2 loss to the Calgary Flames and several other games lost by one goal in January. A rested Draisaitl and McDavid are a lot more dangerous than when they are playing over 23 minutes a game.
Who do we blame or can we blame for the higher playing time of our superstars when compared to other superstars? Either Connor and Leon are asking to play more (unlikely) or it’s the coach(s) that deploy them out without realizing how many minutes they have played. Those boys will not say no - they are competitive and want to win. So, we have to blame the coaches.
If you remember, one of the first things Coach Knoblauch did when he arrived here was to play McDavid and Draisaitl on different lines and to give them less playing time per game. It was a winning formula, we all loved it and resulted in a playoff push to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals. Less ice time for those two would mean more ice time for the 3rd and 4th lines. More ice time for those bottom-six forwards would allow them to build confidence in their play, allow them to find partners that they trust and thus want to play with purpose every night, as their effort matters.
I think we have capable 3rd and 4th line wingers that can be effective but they will not become quality players playing six to eight minutes a game. Knoblauch is losing control of this team at this moment as he is just blending the lines with no apparent thought to outcomes (at least that is how it looks). This approach is not smart, will not produce successful results and the team will regress back to their poor play at the beginning of this season.
Post-Olympic Predictions
NHL players are playing on the biggest stage in the world, the Olympics, where the best of the best compete to be named the best in their respective sport. Crosby has solidified his legacy in helping Canada win the gold medal for ice hockey in the 2010 Olympics on Canadian soil.
Now, 16 years later, he hopes to do it again with help from the games best - McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, Celebrini, Marchand and others. We hope they can win gold but one has to worry about the fatigue level of Connor and Leon. Both have played a lot of hockey since 2023 going to game 7 of the Stanley Cup final in 2024, game 6 of the Stanley Cup final in 2025, playing in the 4 Nations Cup last year (for Connor) and now the Olympics.
They are both quit fit with an amazing exercise programs from what we all know, but they are only humans and fatigue will catch up to them. We hope it does not and they stay healthy to take Edmonton back to the Stanley Cup finals in 2026.
The Oilers players know what they need to do and we know as fans that they can turn it on when needed. They will need to show accelerated purpose in late March/early April as they play the final games before the playoffs begin. They have showed us twice that they can switch on good defensive play, play with purpose and be the team that believes they can win. Let’s hope Team Canada wins gold at the Olympics and McDavid/Draisaitl can bring that level of excitement and play to the Oilers in their journey to the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs.