At the end of the NHL 2023-24 regular season, 5 teams each from the East and Western Conference had more than100 points. In the 2024-25 regular season, I do not expect that to be the same outcome. The total number of goals scored in the regular season is down from the 2023-24 season with a goals against average (GAA) of 2.91 to a GAA of 2.80 thus far in the 2024-25 season. In fact, the GAA in the 2022-23 season was 2.97, thus clearly indicating that is has become harder to score in 2024-25 season vs the 2022-23 season. As such, if you are not ready to play, any team can beat you this year.
The standings in both the Eastern and Western conferences reveal how competitive it is this year. The race for the last wild card spot is being challenged by 2-3 teams in each conference with 2-3 teams challenging for the first place in the Atlantic and Central divisions. Games are extremely meaningful in March and all teams need to be prepared to play in every game. I have done this for the matchups as of April 2, 2025, is (last ten games indicated):
In the East
Washington Capitals (7-3-0, Met#1) vs Ottawa Senators (5-4-1, Wild card#1) or Montreal
Carolina Hurricanes (8-2-0, Met#2) vs New Jersey Devils (5-4-1, Met#3)
Toronto Maple Leafs (6-3-1, Atlantic #1) vs Montreal Canadians (4-3-3, Wild card#2) or Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning (7-2-1, Atlantic #2) vs Florida Panthers (4-5-1, Atlantic #3)
In the West
Winnipeg Jets (7-3-0, Central #1) vs Minnesota Wild (4-4-2, Wild card#1) or St. Louis Blues
Dallas Stars (7-1-2, Central #2) vs Colorado Avalanche (6-2-2, Central #3)
Vegas Golden Knights (7-2-1, Pacific #1) vs St. Louis Blues (10-0-0, Wild card #2) or Minnesota Wild
LA Kings (7-3-0, Pacific #2) vs Edmonton Oilers (6-3-1, Pacific #3)
These are all intriguing matchups and some are returning matchups from the previous playoffs such as (LA vs Edmonton and Tampa vs Florida). Most Canadians will be excited for a Toronto vs Montreal match up and teams like the Washington Capitals and St. Louis Blues may have strong showings in this year’s playoffs when they were not favourites in the 2024. These matchups are still fluid with most teams having 8-9 games left in the regular season.
Eastern Conference Predictions
Capitals in 6 games
I think the Washington Capitals are favoured to get past the first round and will most likely meet the Hurricanes in the second round. Ovi is within 3 goals of Gretzky’s goal record of 894 career goals, and this has been a big distraction all year for the Capitals, but they have handled it well with a very impressive win record this year and strong push towards the President’s Trophy. They have had a few losses in the past 5 games but will go into the playoffs as a strong contender for the Stanley Cup. If Ovi can tie or break Gretzky’s record this season, will he have enough desire to get the Capitals back to the Stanely Cup final?
On the other hand, the Ottawa Senators have not been in the playoffs since 2017 when they lost to Pittsburgh in the Conference finals and before that they lost to the same Penguins in the Stanley Cup finals in 2007. They are hungry to get back to the playoffs lead by their emotional captain, Brady Tkachuk. I suspect that Ovi will be seeing a lot of Brady if this matchup is there. I do think that Washington is the better team and has more depth than the Senators and will win the series in six games.
Carolina in 5 games
Carolina has had a great season and they will have a strong finish the season. They have two good scoring lines with Slavin anchoring the defense and a good young goaltender behind the pipes. They should be able to take the Devils in 5 games and punch a ticket to see the Capitals in round two. The Devils have had an up and down season and are entering into the playoffs without Jack Hughes or Doug Hamilton. They have an aging goaltender duo that actually does have a decent save percentage this year but might not be enough against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Toronto in 7 games
Both the Montreal Canadians and the Ottawa Senators have been rising up the ranks to second wild card spot. They are playing well and either team will challenge the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round. The Leafs are also playing well, and this may be one of the most watched series in the first round. Marner and Mathews are playing well and the Leafs goaltending has been outstanding lead by Anthony Stolarz. These three players (in addition to others) need to be at their best for the Leafs to have playoff success and make it to the next round.
Tampa Bay in 7 games if Tampa vs Florida
A Tampa vs Florida matchup has been seen before and will be watched by many. Both teams have had up and down seasons and the race for #1 in the Atlantic is still ongoing. So, this match up may change but is highly anticipated. If it does occur, the defending Stanley Cup champions will be challenged by Kucherov and company and the edge will go to Tampa Bay as they can still score goals after losing Stamkos to Nashville. They will push this series to 7 games. If Toronto plays Florida, I still predict Toronto in 7 games as Toronto has better goaltending, better scoring lines and I think can finally push to another round.
Western Conference Predictions
Winnipeg or St. Louis in 7 games
The Jets have had a storied season led by their Vezina winning goaltender. They have done everything they possible could including having one of the best powerplays this year at close to 30% for the entire season. They are going into the playoffs as a strong Stanley Cup contender, but can they make it past the first round? Can Hellebuyck maintain his stellar play restrict teams to < 2 goals a game? Can Winnipeg outscore teams at the pace they have been doing in the regular season with a +83 goal differential as of April 1, 2025? I think they must in order to beat Minnesota. If Winnipeg meets the St. Louis Blues in the first round, my vote goes to the surging Blues that have won ten of their last 10 games with a very young and fast team. I predict a St. Louis win in 7 games.
Colorado in 7 games
Nathan McKinnon has had another Hart trophy season and will have to be stellar to beat his old teammate, Mikko Rantanen, and his new team. This will be a hard fought series that will go to 7 games. The fire power of McKinnon and Makar cannot be understated, and the Stars will have their hands full. Goaltending has always been an issue for the Colorado Avalanche in the past few years, but Makar and McKinnon will find a way to win.
St Louis in 7 games
The Blues have had a great season led by their two newest and youngest players, Dylan Holloway and Phillip Broberg. It was such a loss to Edmonton Oilers to let these two players go. I have always been a fan of Holloway since his NCAA days, and he has proven to be a number #1 player and a superstar for the Blues. He will most likely finish as their top scorer and will be one of the reasons the Blues will make it to the first round of the playoffs and possibly win their first round. This is a must watch series just to see those two dynamic players in motion. If St. Louis meets Winnipeg in the first round, I give the edge to St. Louis due to their current10-0-0 one record, youth and speed, 4 Nations winning goaltender in Binnington and a predicted strong end to the season.
Edmonton Oilers in 7 games
For all Oilers fans, it has been a stressful year with a lot of ups and downs and now several major injuries to key players. As of today, the coaching staff has indicated that McDavid, Federic and maybe Kane will be healthy come game 1 of the playoffs. Uncertainties are with Stuart Skinner due to what appeared to be a concussion last week. Great news is that Leon Draisaitl is back playing and appears healthy, and Calvin Pickard will get a chance to show the hockey world that he is a better goalie than a back up role. The LA Kings may go into the playoffs with home ice advantage and one of the best records in the last 10 games, but with so much history between these two teams, one has to pick Edmonton to win this series. However, the Oilers often start series very sluggishly, so I am predicting 7 games to knock the Oilers into playoff game shape. Their skill and depth will be an important factor as well being a younger team when compared to the Kings. Look for a hard fought series win.
The next two weeks will dictate the final composition of some of these match ups but we all hope the Oilers can switch to playoff mode and challenge for the Stanley Cup.