In Northern Alberta, we know the feeling of an unexpected lottery win. Back in the early rebuild days there was hopeful expectation in the Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins drafts, but by 2015, few thought the Edmonton Oilers would get an opportunity to draft the next generational player, namely Connor McDavid. But the lottery balls blessed Oil Country that evening, McDavid joined the Oilers, and the story of the last decade began.
Across the country, where Toronto Maple Leafs blue and white jerseys are the majority, they got a similar surprise at the most recent National Hockey League Draft Lottery reveal. Gavin McKenna, Canadian and highly touted prospect, will be the third 1st overall pick to play for the Original Six franchise. The Yukon-born left winger already has an extensive non-professional resume, and he'll join 2016 1st overall selection Auston Matthews on the Leafs roster.
It takes losing to win the lottery
The huge challenge for many top selections is the fact that a NHL club has to be pretty bad to get themselves into position to win the lottery. In Edmonton, we called it the Decade of Darkness, and almost without fail, the young stars who join rebuilding franchises aren't able to lift their team toward immediate playoff relevance. The best players in the world play 25 minutes or less every night, and if the rest of your roster is has-beens or never-weres, then the majority of most games the club is still at a disadvantage.
In Toronto's case, the team certainly took a step back from its most dangerous period in the past ten years. Mitch Marner left, narrowly missing out on a Stanley Cup win with the Vegas Golden Knights this spring, and Matthews got hurt down the stretch. But the ill fated 2025-26 season put the Leafs in position to win the draft lottery, and now they have another potential superstar on a team-friendly entry level deal.
What Taylor Hall (and Auston Matthews) didn't have in their rookie seasons, is what Connor McDavid (and now McKenna) do. Someone who has been there before. The shelter of shared expectations, a somewhat older teammate who can give help and guidance (possibly not on facial hair in Matthews'/Mckenna's case), as well as empathy in terms of the experience of being an 18 year old with all of the fishbowl's eyes on you in a Canadian market.
The mentorship offered by another high draft selection doesn't protect a player from everything that might occur in their rookie campaign. No amount of sage advice would have saved McDavid's collarbone from Brandon Manning, but at least we can be relatively sure that anyone who potentially injures McKenna won't end up on his team later, because who would do that to your star player?
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