A National Hockey League team shouldn't make snap decisions. In the immediate aftermath of a poor season or an early playoff exit, emotions may run high, but good general managers and team presidents should allow things to settle prior to making organizational decisions. That's doubly true for the Edmonton Oilers, who simply cannot make the wrong hires or signings in any position over the next two seasons.
Kris Knoblauch has been at the helm of the good ship Oiler for a while now, hired into his role on November 12th, 2023, and he has enough of a body of work that we can assess his direct impact on the team's results. Beforehand we need to acknowledge that a coach can only do so much. His GM has to put the right players in his hands and those players have to execute the plan the coach gives them, but coaching undoubtedly plays an important role in team success.
2023-24 NHL season
Knoblauch came in and coached the team's final 69 games of the season. They won 46 of those games, including a 16 game winning streak that tied the second best of all time. Knoblauch was the coach of record, and gets credit for the team's early success under his tenure. It is clear, looking backward, that something about former head coach Jay Woodcroft's style or strategy was holding the club back, and that version of the team came within a lucky bounce or two of winning it all.
Big stats:
- Record (69 games): 46-18-5
- Win percentage: 66.7%
- Powerplay: 26.3%
- Penalty kill: 79.5%
- Goals for per game: 3.56
- Goals against per game: 2.88
2024-25 NHL season
What one would expect to see in a coach's second season with a hockey team, is his coaching vision fully realized. With an offseason of preparation and a pre-season of practice, the strategy should be in place, the players should know their roles, and the team's results should be a general indication of whether or not that strategy is working.
- Record (82 games): 48-29-5
- Win percentage: 58.5%
- Powerplay: 23.7%
- Penalty kill: 78.2%
- Goals for per game: 3.16
- Goals against per game: 2.87
There is a drop off in every single category up above. Again, certain player departures play a role in these changes, but the core group of elite players was the same, and one would expect an improvement somewhere if a head coach has put a good plan in place.
2025-26 NHL season
Now we start to see trends emerging, and unfortunately, many of those are not positive. The team continued to regress in terms of wins and standings points. Their inability to string wins together robbed them of what should have been an easy win of the Pacific division, and the massive increase in goals against basically cancelled out the improved powerplay and goals for. There can be no question that Knoblauch has fully implemented his plans at this point and there are obvious holes in them.
- Record (82 games): 41-30-11
- Win percentage: 50%
- Powerplay: 30.6%
- Penalty kill: 77.8%
- Goals for per game: 3.43
- Goals against per game: 3.23
Does Knoblauch need to go? I would say that the right candidate needs to be available. Firing Knoblauch without a plan for a more talented successor, while being very on brand for the Oilers, wouldn't set them up well for 2026/27 and beyond. Maybe that future coach is someone like Bruce Cassidy, who found a way to get the Vegas Golden Knights their first championship, but Stan Bowman better be sure before he signs on the dotted line.
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