Three years ago, Kirby Dach was coming off a strong first season with the Montreal Canadiens. While he missed 24 games due to a series of injuries, he was still able to record 38 points (14 goals and 24 assists) through 58 total games played. Translated to an 82-game pace, he would have finished well above the 50-point threshold.
Fast forward a few seasons, and Dach is struggling to regain that same form. Sure, injuries are still playing their part, but he's scored just 39 points in 96 regular season games since that 2022-23 campaign.
That has led to some trade speculation, with the Edmonton Oilers having been part of that conversation as per Frank Seravalli. He recently reported that the Oilers and Calgary Flames are extremely interested in acquiring the former Chicago Blackhawks forward and that one wouldn't be crazy to think that the team will acquire him at some point before next season.
While the concern is there for the Oilers, particularly with the forward's injury history in mind, a player who recently recorded a 30+ point season should be worth the minimal draft capital. In addition, given that Dach is set to become a free agent in one year, the Oilers would have the option to re-sign him, trade him for a return on their investment, or let him walk if things don't pan out.
The Oilers might not need to give up all that much
It was reported that an unnamed team tried to acquired Dach for a second-round pick back in June, but the Habs declined that offer.
That said, the Oilers' interest and the fact that only one year remains on Dach's current contract means that it is truly a matter of when, not if, there is a move. If the Habs feel like he cannot recapture his past form, they will make a move to get something back for his services after acquiring him from Chicago for two early-round picks in 2022. But if they hold onto him for the entire 2026-27 campaign, then the Oilers could sign him next summer without giving up any draft capital.
And while there is word that he could be a piece in an effort to land Columbus Blue Jackets forward Kirill Marchenko, there is surely a chance that the Habs pull off what the Florida Panthers achieved to acquire Brady Tkachuk from the Ottawa Senators. Specifically, the Panthers used the first-rounder acquired from the Seattle Kraken for Mackie Samoskevich to complete a same-day trade for Tkachuk. While the Habs might not necessarily pull off a same-day deal, they could use whatever pieces they acquire from Edmonton to complete a deal with the Blue Jackets.
As for what the return could look like?
It might be cheaper to wait until free agency, but the Oilers could acquire Dach and get away with a minimal return. One can easily argue that Dach's current value is not the same as it was three years ago, and they would be right to extend that to say that Edmonton would not need a first and a third-rounder to acquire his services.
But given that the Habs didn't want a second-round pick for Dach, there is a chance that the Oilers would have to give up a pair of picks to acquire him now. That pair of picks could end up being a combination of the second-rounder that was rumored to be on the table and a portion of the return Chicago acquired, which would likely involve just the third-rounder.
If the Oilers wait until the first month of the season is complete or until the trade deadline rolls around, they could potentially get a Habs front office that is more desperate for a return and therefore willing to part with Dach for only a second- or third-round pick.
Why Kirill Marchenko could be an indirect catalyst for a Dach trade
I previously mentioned the Habs' interest in acquiring Marchenko from Columbus.
If one were to ask a Habs fan, "Do you think the Habs will acquire Marchenko?" at around the time the most recent draft took place, they would likely say, "Yes, it's only a matter of what kind of package Montreal needs to get him."
Now, it's likely a whole different response. While Montreal was at one point the runaway favorite to trade for Marchenko should Columbus opt to move on, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman has added a handful of teams that either are potential suitors or looking into the matter for the sake of doing so. Those teams are the New York Islanders, the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Winnipeg Jets, the Boston Bruins, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Seattle Kraken.
To ramp up the urgency for the Habs, it is also worth noting that the Leafs' new general manager, John Chayka, has shown that he can make and has made big trades to improve his team; getting on the phone with Blue Jackets' general manager Don Waddell to acquire Marchenko would be nothing short of that. As for the Bruins, there is word that they proposed the best package for the winger and that the chance of a transaction taking place is quite high.
Given that the Leafs and Bruins both reside in the same division as Montreal and that acquiring Marchenko could push either team back into or, in Boston's case, further into the playoff stratosphere. For Montreal, that means losing valuable ground in what will be a tightly-contested battle for the Atlantic Division title.
If moving Dach is what separates the Habs from getting the capital required to acquire Marchenko and, by extension, returning to level terms with their division rivals, then that will only further move the needle in favor of the Oilers.
Even then, the path for the Oilers to acquire Dach is quite favorable, and there are so many factors that could only speed the process up.
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