The Edmonton Oilers -- despite what many may think -- have been gifted an embarrassment of riches since becoming a professional hockey team. Looking through the roster over the years; the Oilers alumni is riddled with hall of famers, in total 12 former players have been inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame with many more as builders.
Gretzky alone was the centerpiece of the 1980's Oilers dynasty, holding many records both as an Oiler and as an NHL player. Definitely the most prestigious and possibly the most unbreakable record he holds is his career point total. In 1,487 regular season games played, Gretzky scored 894 goals and 1963 assists for 2,857 points.
The 1980's were a crazy time for scoring in the NHL that saw Gretzky surpass the 200-point mark not once or twice but four times! According to quanthockey.com, the NHL's average goals per game was above 7.5 G/GP six years throughout the decade. This past year, it was 6.0 G/GP and has not reached above 7 since the 1992-93 season.
How long would it take for McDavid to surpass Gretzky's points record
McDavid has been nothing short of spectacular in his NHL career thus far and even that feels like I am understating the quality of player he is. Through 712 regular season games, he has notched 1,082 points, scoring 361 goals and 721 assists at 28 years old. There has been no real signs of slowing down either, having scored over 120 points in three of the past four seasons.
However, looking at this hypothetical, we have to take a few things into account. McDavid has only played a full season in four of his 10 years in the league so far. As mentioned before, the rate of scoring has plummeted since Gretzky's reign of terror in the 1980's with nearly two less goals scored per game on average.
Averaging out McDavid's pace, which in and of itself has seen rises and dips throughout his career, he averages roughly 125 points per season. Gretzky on the other hand, averaged about 158 points per season over the course of his career, even taking into account his time playing through the dead puck era and his age-related decline.
Using these as the starting points, for McDavid to jump from his current 1,082 points to surpass Gretzky's 2,857 points, he would need to play over 14 more seasons or about 1,165 games. This is assuming no steep decline from his current pace, which is almost impossible. So, if McDavid were to attempt an Alex Ovechkin type marathon to become the record holder, he would need to play until he is 42 years old and keep up at a 125-point pace.
This seems nearly impossible, let alone improbable. A much more attainable record that McDavid could overtake Gretzky on is his Oilers all-time franchise lead in points at 1,669. To do this, McDavid would only need to pot another 587 points, which at his current pace can be done in less than five more seasons. Of course, he would need to sign a contract extension with the Oilers first since his current deal expires next July 1st.
Although it is unlikely McDavid will beat his career totals, becoming the Oilers all-time points leader is very much in reach. It seems unlikely at this time that anyone could break Gretzky's record and possibly the closest player since he retired in 1999, is McDavid. That is, until another great young phenom comes along and takes the hockey world by storm.