Elliotte Friedman just poured cold water all over Edmonton Oilers fans dreams of pairing Buffalo Sabres alternate captain Alex Tuch with Connor McDavid.
The NHL insider's latest prediction on the 32 Thoughts podcast makes it clear that the Buffalo Sabres are keeping their star winger through next week's trade deadline effectively ending months of speculation about Tuch donning an Oilers jersey at some point this season.
"Buffalo is not a seller. They're going for it again," Friedman said. "I could make myself look really bad here, but the betting on Tuch is that he stays in Buffalo next week, whether there's an extension or not."
For Oilers fans who've spent the better part of five months envisioning Tuch riding shotgun with McDavid on Edmonton's top line, it's seems the move will not be happening after all with the March 6 deadline just days away.
The Oilers connection that won't happen
The Tuch-to-Edmonton rumor mill started churning back in October when multiple insiders flagged the Oilers as serious suitors.
"He still hasn’t re-signed; it’s not a great situation, you wonder about players leaving. How good would Alex Tuch look riding shotgun with Connor McDavid, could that be the player the Oilers are looking at here?" Jeff Marek had floated last year.
David Pagnotta had echoed that sentiment suggesting that if Buffalo fell out of the playoff race, "the Oilers would be one of them" pursuing the big winger.
The fit made perfect sense on paper. Tuch's 6'4", 219-pound frame combined with his elite goal-scoring ability and that he potted 36 goals last season, would provide exactly the kind of power-forward element the Oilers have been missing. Analysts specifically mentioned him as the ideal complement to McDavid's skill, a north-south player who could crash the net while Connor worked his magic.
By December, The Athletic even listed Edmonton among the top three teams most likely to pursue Tuch as their deadline target.
The dream Connor McDavid-Alex Tuch pair up
The vision of a top line featuring McDavid centering Tuch and Zach Hyman is really something. The trio would have given Edmonton arguably the most dangerous scoring line in the league with skill, speed, size and finishing ability all rolled into one.
It would have allowed Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to slide down to center the third line adding depth down the middle. Tuch's affordable $4.75 million cap hit for this season would make the money work, at least in theory. But there was always one problem. Buffalo had to be willing to sell.
"So my bet is he stays," Friedman said. "And even if he doesn't have an extension, which he probably won't by next week, again, things can change, but that's my call right now."
Why the door just slammed shut
The Sabres currently sit in the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference with a 33-19 record. After missing the playoffs for 14 consecutive seasons, the longest active drought in North American professional sports, they're not about to sacrifice this opportunity for future assets.
Friedman made that abundantly clear. "Don't forget that Kevyn Adams, he has been in this position before," he explained referencing Adams' time with Columbus when the Blue Jackets went all-in during their 2019 playoff run. "When Columbus won their first ever playoff series, beating Tampa, they had some UFAs, and Kevyn was in the position where he just said, 'You know what, we're going for it.' And if we lose guys, we lose guys, and that's what they did."
Adams is prepared to run the same playbook in Buffalo even if it means losing Tuch for nothing in free agency on July 1.
"He understands this. He knows how to handle it, and I think that's the way he will do it in Buffalo," Friedman said.
The risk Buffalo is taking with Alex Tuch
Make no mistake, this is a gamble by the Sabres. Tuch's contract expires this summer, and extension talks have reportedly stalled over his asking price of $10-11 million per season. Buffalo hasn't been willing to pay that figure.
By keeping Tuch through the deadline without an extension, the Sabres risk watching him walk away for nothing in free agency. They're essentially using him as their own rental player for a playoff push.
But for Adams and the Sabres, ending the 14-year playoff drought is perhaps worth that risk.
No Alex Tuch for Edmonton
With Tuch off the board, the Oilers will need to pivot to other targets before the March 6 deadline. Edmonton currently sits second in the Pacific Division with a 29-23 record and general manager Stan Bowman will be under pressure to add scoring depth for a playoff run.
The dream of seeing Tuch ride shotgun with McDavid will have to wait, at least until free agency opens on July 1 assuming the Oilers want to throw their hat in the ring for his services.