After two consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final, it wasn't completely surprising that the Edmonton Oilers took a step back. The National Hockey League is full of talent, and it takes a combination of roster composition, coaching strategy, overall health, and luck to find success. It's difficult for any team to maintain top status.
Edmonton's core remained in place as 2025-26 began, and while there were changes to the bottom half of the roster, the team's powerplay continued its dominance, leading the league in converting opportunities into Goals For. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard had outstanding offensive campaigns, and players like Zach Hyman and Mattias Ekholm returned to form after injuries limited them in the Cup Final.
Regression
The league changes year-over-year. Varying focuses in officiating, minor rule tweaks, even just the ongoing evolution of the sport mean that a change in a single statistic doesn't necessarily indicate postive or negative regression. But when compared against the league as a whole, we can get a feel for whether or not a team has improved or declined.
Oilers Goals against:
2024 - 236 - 10th
2025 - 235 - 14th
2026 - 265 - 25th
Oilers Goals For:
2024 - 292 - 4th
2025 - 259 - 11th
2026 - 282 - 6th
The Oilers were every bit as good an offensive team in 2025-26, actually quite a bit better than the prior year. But the trend in limiting opponent scoring is notable and disappointing. Recently fire head coach Kris Knoblauch may not have been given the roster pieces to be the best in the league, but when you have a powerplay and first line that can score at the rate the Oilers do, you really only need to break even when they're off the ice. That should be an achievable strategy, and Knoblauch's teams got progressively worse, as we see above.
Advanced stats
Looking slightly deeper at this past season, the Oilers were actually lower scoring that their Expected Goals For would suggest:
Expected Goals For: 192.2
Actual Goals For: 173.6
This can mean they were unlucky, or it could once again be tied to a coaching strategy. Were the Oilers passing up opportunities to adhere to the scheme the coach put in place? Looking at the other end of the ice, we once again see bad news:
Expected Goals Against: 174
Actual Goals Against: 188
All things being equal, this year's version of the Oilers should have posted a plus 18 goal differential. Not league winning, but it notably would have been better than the Vegas Golden Knights. For comparison, the President's Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche posted a plus 99 differential. The 2024 version of the Oilers were 4th in the league at plus 57. It really shouldn't be surprising that the massive shift in goals against led to fewer wins, more losses, and ultimately a first round exit from the playoffs.
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