Tristan Jarry or Connor Ingram? It's the Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard question of last year, with different names but the same core issue. The Edmonton Oilers don't have a clear number one goaltender as the team heads closer to the post-season. While even getting there is still up in the air, the fact that the question still exists is as big a problem as any facing the team this season.
As a reminder, the Stuart Skinner for Tristan Jarry trade was as follows:
Pittsburgh recieved:
- Stuart Skinner G - 27 years old - UFA Summer 2026
- Brett Kulak D - 32 years old - UFA Summer 2026
- Edmonton's 2nd round pick at the 2029 NHL draft
Edmonton recieved:
- Tristan Jarry G - 30 years old - UFA 2028
- Samuel Poulin - 25 years old - Group 6 UFA Summer 2026
Poulin was a throw-in, and while he's producing 0.5 points per game down in Bakersfield, if the Oilers don't re-sign him, his addition to the trade means little. Edmonton traded goalies, threw in a decent defender in Kulak, and paid a premium of a 2nd round pick in the distant future. That payment suggests the belief in the Oilers boardroom was that they were getting the superior netminder.
Mixed results
The knocks on Jarry were that he has difficulty staying healthy, and he's relatively unproven in the playoffs, in spite of his age. He's played 8 total games and never won a series. The health aspects have proven accurate, with Jarry showing up on the injury report three times since joining the Oilers. His play while healthy has been a mix of good and bad, and that, along with missed games due to injury, are what opened the door to an Ingram ascendance.
Head-to-head, both goalies have similar win percentages, and suboptimal save percentages. Jarry sits at 15 wins and .888, while Ingram has 9 wins and .892. For further enjoyment, Skinner is at .889, so it's reasonable to ask oneself if the Oilers are any better off today. But with the deadline in the past, the goalies on the roster are the only options, so now it's a question of who should start.
The answer is Tristan Jarry
All other factors being the same, the single statistic that stands out to me is Jarry's High Danger Save Percentage. Even if Edmonton has upgraded their defensive game with the other trades last week, it's safe to assume they're going to continue to surrender dangerous chances. This is the area where one goalie significantly outplays the other.
Jarry's GAA in those situations is 0.832 versus 0.805 for Ingram. That 2.7% difference works out to 3 more goals against per hundred dangerous opportunities. When the team in front of you let's you down, the goalie is the final opportunity to prevent an opposing score, and Jarry is better at making those stops than Ingram.
We can all dream of heading into the playoffs with a sturdy defense and a goalie with a lofty save percentage in the mid-.900s, but that isn't in the cards this year. So Jarry should be the guy, and on his off nights, the team will have to outscore their problems.