Despite many people claiming (rightfully so in many cases) that Connor McDavid will be an Edmonton Oiler at the start of training camp and that any decision on his future will take place after the season's conclusion, we all know that McDavid is not happy with the way things are going in the organization. Such a decision is going to hinge on whether the front office can finally deliver on roster changes in an effective and satisfiable manner.
And now that McDavid has been named a finalist for the Hart Trophy, the NHL's MVP award, that pressure is going to ramp up significantly.
Despite stiff competition, McDavid is on the cusp of more greatness
Only three players have won the Hart Trophy more than three times: Eddie Shore, Gordie Howe, and The Great One/Wayne Gretzky.
If McDavid were to take home the Hart Trophy, he would become the fourth player to win the Hart Trophy at least four times. It would also make the Hart Trophy the sixth NHL award that McDavid has won at least four times.
The other nominees for the award are no pushovers though. Tampa Bay Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov recorded his fourth consecutive 100+ point season and, by extension, his sixth-career campaign of such a nature. His efforts helped earn the Lightning their ninth-consecutive playoff berth, which saw them fall just short of beating the Montreal Canadiens in the opening round of the playoffs. Fun fact: the Lightning failed to win a playoff round in five of the six seasons where Kucherov recorded at least 100 points.
The third nominee for the award is Colorado Avalanche forward Nathan MacKinnon; like Kucherov, he just recorded his fourth consecutive 100+ point season while also besting Montreal Canadiens forward Cole Caufield for the Rocket Richard Trophy. His efforts not only earned the Avalanche the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs but also their fourth Presidents' Trophy in franchise history. Despite dropping Game 3 of their second-round series against the Minnesota Wild, his Avs lead the series 2-1 and have a decent chance of reaching their second Stanley Cup Final in five seasons.
Should McDavid win the Hart Trophy, it would reinforce his case that he is still among the leagues best players despite not yet being a Stanley Cup winner. Even with Kucherov and MacKinnon having won both the Hart Trophy and the Stanley Cup, McDavid would be able to prove that, even with all the playoff shortcomings, he is truly capable of playing alongside the league's best players for a chance at the Stanley Cup.
Not only that, but he would also be able to make the claim that, like Gretzky, he is capable of being the best player in the league year-in and year-out while remaining a member of the Oilers organization. And like how Gretzky was eventually traded, though due to different reasons than those influencing McDavid's potential departure, the Richmond Hill, Ontario native can use repeated Hart Trophy titles as a means to push management to make moves or else risk being forced to move the superstar forward.
But even if McDavid doesn't win, the fact that he is even being considered for the award in what was an overall down year for his team is a testament to his ability to keep them in the Stanley Cup contender conversation.
But could a McDavid-less forward core really be all that competitive?
Compete for a playoff spot? Yes.
Compete for a Stanley Cup? Absolutely not.
Considering that the Pacific Division has been as wide open as ever over the past few seasons - three of the last five division winners didn't even make the playoffs the season prior - there is indeed room for the Oilers to remain a threat in a post-McDavid world. And even if the Oilers didn't add any forward depth during the offseason and solely promoted players from their AHL affiliate, the Bakersfield Condors, they would still have at least two forward lines capable of carrying the weight offensively.
But if the team were to shed another key pillar of their current success - be it Zach Hyman (whose deal expires at the same time as McDavid's), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, or another player of a similar calibre - then the Oilers would almost certainly find themselves outside of the Western Conference playoff bubble.
That's why the prospect of a fourth Hart Trophy for McDavid must truly set the alarm bells off for the Oilers' front office.
Sure, the Oilers would be competitive in 2026-27 with two superstar-led forward lines even if they let all their free agents go (Draisaitl- McDavid - Hyman and Podkolzin - Nugent-Hopkins - Savoie would be my projected top two lines if that were to happen). But eight forwards are about to hit free agency in some form when the calendar flips to July, and that would only leave nine under contract for next season.
Among other moves, the Oilers must do what they can to secure their younger free-agency bound forwards to new deals, a move that would ensure a post-McDavid continuum and/or a basis to work with for making non-free agency moves happen.
That is the least of what must be done to help turn this team around. And that is what management must realize is obligatory to keep an award-winning, point-scoring, superstar forward like McDavid for the long haul.
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