With Connor McDavid recently becoming the fourth-fastest player to reach the 1,000-point plateau, speculation has begun about his chances of becoming the NHL’s second player to reach 2,000 points.
Now, to put into perspective what it means to reach 2,000 points in the NHL, only one player has ever achieved it. That was another Edmonton Oilers legend, Wayne Gretzky. Of course, Gretzky played for other teams, as well. Nevertheless, his most productive years were in Edmonton.
Gretzky had three-straight 200-point seasons. No one else has managed to break the 200-point barrier in a single season. In total, Gretzky did it four times. Even in his decline, Gretzky managed 97, 90, and 62 points in his final three seasons.
In total, the Great One finished his unbelievable career with 2,857 points. One could speculate about Gretzky breaking the 3,000-point barrier, but that would have required him to play another two to three seasons. Unfortunately, Gretzky’s body couldn’t take the punishment of NHL hockey anymore.
Gretzky’s accomplishments are akin to what Babe Ruth did in baseball or Michael Jordan in basketball. Like Ruth or Jordan, other players came along that approximated what Ruth and Jordan accomplished in their careers.
In that regard, McDavid could be the next in line to eclipse one of the NHL’s seemingly insurmountable barriers, the coveted 2,000-point mark. If there’s anyone who’s got a chance to do it, it’s him.
Projecting Connor McDavid’s chances at 2,000 points
Plenty of things have to go right for McDavid to get to 2,000 points. In short, he’ll have to average 100 points per season for the next decade to break the mark. Considering McDavid is 27, he’ll have to play at an elite level till he’s about 37 or 38 years old.
A good reference could be Sidney Crosby, who is 38 and is still an elite centre. The main difference between Crosby and McDavid lies in Crosby’s two-way play. In comparison, McDavid is all offence. His elite speed and puck handling make him virtually unstoppable.
But that’s precisely the point. How long could McDavid keep his elite skills going? What happens when he loses a step? Could that derail his point production?
Then, there are injuries to worry about. McDavid would need to stay healthy in order to have a chance to make it to 2,000 points. Gretzky, despite his gifted athletic ability, gradually declined due to back issues in his mid-30s. So, when father time catches up to McDavid, could his quest for 2,000 points fall short?
At the end of the day, there is no other active player who could realistically come close to 2,000 points. For instance, Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews is 27 and has 660 points in 575 career games. He’s a ways off 1,000 points. Assuming he gets there in the next four to five seasons, he’ll be about 30 when he hits the milestone. At that point, it’s hard to envision Matthews hitting 2,000.
We are truly blessed to see McDavid do what he does now. While it’s unlikely he breaks Gretzky’s 2,857 points, watching him get to 2,000 will be nothing short of amazing.