The Connor McDavid question is a complex one. On one hand, you have the camp that believes that he's willing to see out his contract and try to win a Stanley Cup with the Edmonton Oilers. On the other hand, there are those who believe that McDavid could be on his way out after yet another playoff run short of a Stanley Cup.
While there is a lack of clarity surrounding the Oilers' next steps, one should not rule out either side of the argument.
Such a fact is especially true when considering that talk surrounding Brady Tkachuk, yet another superstar in a Canadian NHL market, and his future with the Ottawa Senators is only increasing.
Let's consider Tkachuk's situation. He's about to enter the second-to-last season of his contract, and he's coming off of a season that saw him put together a point-per-game scoring pace. That's impressive when considering that he missed a quarter of the season due to injury and that he was at the centre of the criticism facing the Senators following their sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes.
While Tkachuk did come out and denounced any talk of leaving during the offseason, he is eligible to negotiate a new deal as of next summer. A superstar's in staying in Ottawa is one thing (a big one when considering that Ottawa is one of the smaller markets in the league), but having a team around a superstar that is capable of contending is another.
On paper, the Senators have that team. Alongside Tkachuk, forwards like Tim Stützle and Dylan Cozens are incredibly valuable for the team's core. On the defensive side of the ice, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot act as the team's veteran leads, while up-and-coming stars like Carter Yakemchuk can be seen as the unit's future. Despite being an issue in the past, the goaltending has seen a resurgence with ex-Boston Bruin Linus Ullmark.
But can the Senators take that next step and become a contender? While the team did make things interesting in their first-round series with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2025 and they were relatively competitive against the Hurricanes this past April, they haven't been able to convert strong second-half momentum into a sustained postseason push.
There is an indication that Tkachuk and Senators general manager Steve Staios will sit down and have a conversation about the direction of the team, and that could be significant in terms of Tkachuk's future with the team. Any uncertainty in Tkachuk's view of his place in Staios' vision could lead to the Senators exploring trade options, with the Philadelphia Flyers and St Louis Blues listed as potential suitors.
It is worth noting that Tkachuk does have a no-move clause, meaning that the forward cannot be traded, waived, or sent to the minor leagues without the player's explicit consent. At the same time, the Senators would more than likely explore the option for a trade in order to maximise their return for Tkachuk rather than wait through the 2026-27 campaign and try to negotiate a contract or, in the worst-case scenario, risk losing their franchise cornerstone for nothing.
If Tkachuk ends up staying with Ottawa? The rumors may continue to persist through the 2026-27 season, ultimately culminating in a summer that will prove critical to the Senators' future.
Enter Connor McDavid
Like Tkachuk, McDavid has two seasons left on his deal, both of which act as part of an extension that the forward signed prior to the start of the regular season. He also has a no move clause that forces any move out of the Oilers' organisation through his written/verbal consent.
And like Tkachuk, offseason talk about his potential departure is only accelerating following the Oilers' elimination from the playoffs at the hands of the Anaheim Ducks.
In terms of the team itself, the Oilers also have the forward group to make noise in the playoffs. Despite the defense being a red flag, similar to the Senators' case to an extent, it's basically non existent outside of Evan Bouchard and (sometimes) Mattias Ekholm. And unlike the Senators, goaltending is still a major issue.
There could also easily be an offseason conversation between McDavid and Oilers general manager Stan Bowman to determine the immediate future and discuss the next steps for the team.
The similarities between the case of Tkachuk and McDavid are striking and fear-inducing at the same time. That alone should spark concern for Oilers fans as they prepare for their first extended offseason in five years.
But there is still the chance that the Oilers fulfill McDavid's bidding and bring in the pieces required to return to contention. Doing so could easily ensure the former top pick's interest in winning a Cup with Edmonton.
At the same time, the Oilers must prepare for the worst. As proven by the noise surrounding Tkachuk and the Senators, it could be franchise-defining.
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