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Brady Tkachuk has set a dangerous precedent for next offseason

Brady Tkachuk just pulled off what his brother Matthew did four years ago, and it could trigger a chain reaction of superstar trades.
Dec 22, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk (7) looks for a loose puck against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Dec 22, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk (7) looks for a loose puck against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images | Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Yeah, I did not see this one coming.

Here I was, relaxing after a long week, watching Belgium humiliate themselves at the FIFA World Cup, and helping to cook some butter chicken and cherry ice cream. The ONE TIME I decide to open Instagram, I see a post with Brady Tkachuk on it.

I wonder "hmmm, another offseason rumor? I guess it is that time of the year again.

I scroll a little further down and the post basically says that Tkachuk is getting traded to the Florida Panthers.

That's a shocker.

Let's clear the air on the trade first

On a more general level, Tkachuk's move to Florida all but reestablishes the Panthers as a Stanley Cup favorite, gives them the league's most dangerous sibling duo since the Sedin twins, and adds some extra clarification around the Mackie Samoskevic trade that occured a few hours prior. Specifically, the Panthers acquired the 25th overall pick in this year's NHL draft (which they used to acquire Tkachuk) as part of the return for Samoskevic.

According to Bruce Garrioch, Tkachuk was not going to re-sign with the Senators and that the front office had been proactive with regard to his future.

Elliotte Friedman reinforced Garrioch's tweet, alleging that a meeting between Tkachuk and Senators general manager Steve Staios could have hinted at some hesitancy with regard to his future in Ottawa. While bringing up the constant discussion in and around the locker room, Friedman mentioned that the front office decided to make a trade and focus on the season ahead.

Now to extend this to the bigger picture

Essentially, what this trade does is put front offices around the league on super high alert.

We're only four offseasons removed from the blockbuster deal that sent the elder Tkachuk from Calgary to Florida, one that essentially triggered Florida's recent era of Stanley Cup contention.

But that 2022 offseason was relatively quiet in terms of superstar trades.

This time, there is no messing around.

Longtime Detroit Red Wing Dylan Larkin already requested a trade out of Detroit, meaning that another superstar deal could already be on the way.

Teams are making calls about Connor Hellebuyck and his interest in leaving the Winnipeg Jets, making this the most solidified trade discussion yet surrounding the Vezina/gold-medal winning netminder.

Though Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews will likely remain in Toronto next season, there is nonetheless uncertainty on that subject.

And there's Connor McDavid, who has very clearly indicated that work needs to be done to keep him around in Edmonton for the long run.

Like Matthews and Tkachuk, McDavid is eligible to sign an extension next offseason, meaning that both superstars will be entering do-or-die seasons with their respective clubs. At the same time, Larkin and Hellebuyck are signed through the 2030-31 season, only adding to the uniqueness of the situation.

What is clear is that the Senators' front office essentially confirmed that teams can and will make trades to move players that do not want to remain with the team or re-sign with the team.

That sets up an interesting dynamic

With Tkachuk now becoming the latest superstar to essentially will his way out of Ottawa (both directly and indirectly), there is not only precedence for superstars to ask out of certain teams/situations, but there is a basis for teams looking for superstars to low-ball their way out of giving up key roster pieces.

Let's tackle the first idea. With both Tkachuk brothers now serving as the two biggest names to successfully force their way out of roster situations, big name players could now feel emboldened by such moves and hold management to their vision for the team or else ask for a trade/state their unwillingness to re-sign.

In the case of McDavid, he could let the 2026-27 campaign play out and then, if things go south once again, signal his unwillingness to return for the 2027-28 season and beyond in the hopes of having a better chance at contending for a Cup elsewhere. He likely wouldn't sit himself out for the season, but his stature in the league would more than certainly force the Oilers to get the best value for their disgruntled superstar.

When thinking about the second idea, it's possible to view it through the lens of a team looking to trade the superstar and a team looking to acquire that player. A team looking to trade a disgruntled superstar could look for the best possible value for their player, but this could either be complemented or opposed by a team looking to get the player off their roster for a sizeable return, but one that lacks the value to be seen as a blockbuster.

Where does Edmonton (and the league) go from here?

Unfortunately, there's not much that could be done by teams around the league.

There's a very good chance superstars like Matthews and McDavid will be emboldened to seek a trade what with both Tkachuks succeeding at getting out of their respective roster situations. This isn't anything against them being two of the best players in the league right now, if not all time, or even the teams that they play for. It's simply a case of wanting to win and feeling like they're in the best position to do so.

Unfortunately, said emboldening could easily create increased tensions between how a team and a given superstar envisions Cup contention, which could easily lead to further trade requests from high-profile players and (dependant on the situation) significant locker room tensions.

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