What has already been a wacky season of hockey has just seen another major wrench thrown into the works.
Nikita Kucherov, a longtime member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and a former back-to-back Stanley Cup champion, has just asked for a move out of Tampa Bay.
Given that I started writing this article on a spooky Halloween, I'm confident in concluding that the Lightning and their fans just got their fair share of the scares.
Though general manager Julien BriseBois will almost certainly manage a solid return for the superstar, and use Kucherov's 10-team trade list to have some room to hesitate on a trade, the speculation as to which teams are a part of Kucherov's modified no-trade clause could yield some very valuable returns.
It is worth noting that the identity of those teams is unknown right now, but I'm willing to take a very wild guess. The ten teams are the Edmonton Oilers, Utah Mammoth, Dallas Stars, Montreal Canadiens, Washington Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes, Toronto Maple Leafs, Minnesota Wild, Vegas Golden Knights, and Colorado Avalanche.
The Edmonton Oilers already have work to do to make a Kucherov trade work now
I took the time to rank each of the aforementioned teams' salary cap situations based on their current cap space as defined by PuckPedia. The website defines the term "current cap space" as the total AAV that a team can use before reaching the league-imposed ceiling for the season.
The rankings are as follows:
Hurricanes ($8,060,012)
Mammoth ($5,713,999)
Capitals ($3,123,228)
Wild ($2,524,478)
Habs ($1,809,526)
Maple Leafs ($1,637,500)
Stars ($1,274,087)
Golden Knights ($438,330)
Oilers ($156,190)
Avalanche ($8,854)
If this value were the primary one considered, the Hurricanes and Mammoth would be clear favorites to land Kucherov. The prospect of a trade still surrounds Hurricanes defenseman Alexander Nikishin, and he would represent an intriguing asset for BriseBois to consider adding to keep his team competitive now and in the future. If Carolina was willing to include Nikishin in a trade package for Kucherov, they could easily get away with adding a prospect and a first-round pick and calling it a day.
As for Utah, we're well aware of Utah Mammoth owner Ryan Smith's willingness to throw money at a problem.
The good news for Mammoth fans is that said willingness has yielded a very appealing hockey market (one that is also hosting the 2034 Olympics), a competitive Mammoth team that got to the postseason in their second season post-relocation, not to mention extremely-reasonable concession prices.
Even then, Utah finds itself in the same boat as other newer franchises/playoff hopefuls like the Seattle Kraken and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Specifically, all three franchises lack superstar talent. Columbus lacks this to a much lesser degree than the other two franchises, though Utah easily rectifies this deficit if they get Kucherov.
The good news for the Oilers is that the other nine teams that I guessed would be on Kucherov's trade list - with the exception of the Habs, Mammoth, and Hurricanes - will be above the salary cap by the end of the season (this is expressed through the concept of "projected cap space.") Meanwhile, Edmonton will be just below the salary cap limit at season's contract, giving them a little more flexibility when it comes to deciding which contracts to move to both ensure Tampa Bay's interest and make room for Kucherov's current and potential long-term contract with the team.
What would Edmonton have to give up?
If you look at Tampa Bay's roster situation right now, it's clear that they're right in between a veteran-led push for a Stanley Cup and a full-blown roster revamp, but they might still be leaning more towards the former. They still have seven players under contract into the next decade, and Brayden Point isn't going to be entering any serious trade or free agency conversations for the next few seasons.
That said, the team's roster issues don't start and end with Kucherov. In fact, he is only the beginning of a complex series of negotiations that could end with the team's goaltending unit and depth overhauled completely over the next year or two.
Therefore, the Lightning's strategy is easy to interpret: mitigate this as much as possible while also getting a big return back for Kucherov.
The key part of the return is going to be the impact forward who ensures that Tampa Bay will remain in the playoff conversation over the next handful of seasons. Said forward will ideally hold a place in the top-two lines of any forward group, though it doesn't necessarily mean a team's top-two forwards.
As a result, the names to watch here will be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Trent Frederic, and Vasily Podkolzin. That said, it's likely going to be a difficult choice between Nugent-Hopkins and Podkolzin; Frederic has not yet been able to replicate his 40-point 2023-24 season, while Stan Bowman, Mike Babcock and Co. will arguably be more reluctant to move Hyman.
My prediction is that Podkolzin is the star forward heading to Tampa. Yes, he's only now entering his prime. Yes, him and Nugent-Hopkins are in similar contract situations. But there's a stronger chance that Tampa Bay opts to make their roster a little younger in an effort to ensure longer-term competitiveness; the fact that Nugent-Hopkins is 33 only reinforces that potential strategy.
In terms of prospects and future stars, it's easy to see Edmonton including at least one of Isaac Howard and Josh Samanski. As it stands, Samanski is currently listed on Edmonton's non-roster list; if that remains the case as the season continues, he would more than likely be on a flight to Tampa Bay.
A goaltender could be in play, especially given that the Lightning is about to run into a major goaltending question. That said, Mads Sogaard is a quality option in Tampa Bay's prospect and non-roster pool; if Tampa Bay feels that they can get him signed to a new contract, then this becomes less of an issue in terms of a potential return.
Pick-wise, Edmonton's first-rounders in 2028 and 2029 will be in play. Edmonton could get away with a first-rounder and some mid-to-late round picks, but they don't want to be forced to concede too many draft picks.
Yes, the trade might seem like a big blow to Edmonton's hopes of contention now and in the future, especially when it comes to losing Nugent-Hopkins or Podkolzin in the deal. That said, Kucherov's status as one of the league's top forwards should easily rectify these concerns in what will be a Cup-or-bust season. Put Kucherov on a line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and you might just have a trio that could collectively average 600 points per season.
And if Edmonton can get Kucherov locked up to a multi-year contract of any kind? The money will certainly be an issue, but it will almost certainly keep the team in the conversation, regardless of what else happens in terms of their roster.
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