The Edmonton Oilers are down, but not out.
Even with the Anaheim Ducks' overtime goal in Sunday night's game in mind (I'll be saving my thoughts for another day), the Oilers still have the pieces to turn this series around. Not only will the Oilers host Game 5 and, if needed, Game 7, but they are still more experienced than the Ducks when it comes to winning big playoff games and closing out a series.
That said, it's not going to be super straightforward.
We all know about the playoff veterans that make up much of Anaheim's lineup. Alex Killorn won two Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Radko Gudas helped get the Florida Panthers to a Stanley Cup Final in 2023, and John Carlson is part of the handful of active players that remain from the Washington Capitals' Stanley Cup-winning 2018 playoff roster.
They all know how to get over the edge in a series. They've done it so many times throughout their careers.
But as much as there is belief that they can get it done, the young guns don't yet know how to get it done.
And that is why part of Edmonton's strategy must start by winning Game 5. By winning Game 5 on home ice, they can plant that seed of doubt into the heads of the Ducks' young core and attempt to capitalize on it with a strong showing in Game 6.
Why there is still reason to be optimistic
Yes, a 3-1 deficit isn't exactly the greatest scenario for a team to find themselves in during the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it is a fixable one.
While there have only been 32 successful attempts at reversing 3-1 series deficits, four of the last five postseasons have seen a team down 3-1 after losing Game 4 come back to at least force a Game 7.
During the super-altered 2021 playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs held a 3-1 series lead on the Montreal Canadiens after dominating Game 4 by a score of 4-0. The Habs would build a 3-0 lead in Game 5 before the Leafs rallied to force an overtime period. That said, Nick Suzuki would score the overtime winner to force the series back to Montreal.
In Game 6, the Habs would build a 2-0 third period lead, which would be erased by the Leafs as they would once again force overtime. Despite dominating the overtime period, Jesperi Kotkaniemi would force a Game 7, one that the Habs won by a score of 3-1.
In 2022, the Pittsburgh Penguins held a 3-1 series lead on the New York Rangers with the series shifting back to Madison Square Garden. Back-to-back 5-3 wins would allow the Rangers to force a Game 7, while a 4-3 overtime win would give the Rangers the series victory. Ironically enough, Chris Kreider and Frank Vatrano were both on that Rangers team, and they now find themselves having to fend off a potential Oilers rally.
During the opening round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the record-breaking, Presidents' Trophy winning Boston Bruins found themselves up 3-1 on a Florida Panthers team that barely beat the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Eastern Conference's final wild card slot. But after Brad Marchand blew a third period breakaway chance to end the series, the Panthers would survive the overtime period to force the Bruins to a Game 6. After winning Game 6 7-5, the Panthers would once again survive a third period against Boston to steal the series in overtime. Ironically enough, Gudas was on that same Panthers team.
One year later, the Bruins built another 3-1 series lead, this time on the Leafs. If you happened to watch the 2013 and the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs, you know what I'm about to bring up.
After naming Joseph Woll as the Game 5 starter, the Leafs would do well to survive the full 60 minutes of regulation in Boston, backing Woll's 27 saves in a strong effort. During the overtime period, Matthew Knies would score the goal to send the series back to Toronto for Game 6. Woll would once again stand on his feet, stopping all but a last-second shot in a 2-1 victory for the Leafs.
After Woll was forced out of Game 7 with an injury, the Leafs would have to turn back to the previous starter, Ilya Samsonov, for the deciding game in Boston. Samsonov would do well during the game, keeping the Bruins off the board for the vast majority of the game. But despite William Nylander giving the Leafs the 1-0 lead midway through the third period, Hampus Lindholm would quickly level the score, while David Pastrnak would capitalize on a botched defensive end clear and score the game-winning goal during the overtime period.
Not necessarily a 3-1 comeback, but later that same offseason, the Oilers would rally from 3-0 down against the Panthers to force a decisive Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Final.
I'm not trying to say it will be done. I'm simply trying to say it can be done.
We've seen this Oilers side rally from deficits before. Be it a handful of deficits against the Vancouver Canucks or even a 2-1 scoreline against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final, the Oilers have rallied to win series' before.
And maybe, at the end of the day, all the Oilers need is a reset. The Lightning just went through theirs after three consecutive Cup Finals and they look primed for another deep run. The Panthers just went to three Cup Finals and they basically "yeah let's take the year off. Great job everyone!" It's certainly a plausible scenario that the fatigue has caught up to them after two straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final and three Conference Finals berths in the last four years.
But maybe all the Oilers need is a big Game 5. After all, a win at home could easily tip the scales their way.
And that's what they'll be preparing for tomorrow evening.
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