Tonight's game qualifies as a "must win" for the Edmonton Oilers. In an up-and-down season, the Oilers have not managed to put distance between themselves and the bubble teams in the Western Conference. Playoff positioning will be on the line every night from now until the end of the National Hockey League season, and there is a legitimate risk of missing the postseason entirely if a perfect storm of losses against Pacific and Central division foes occurs.
Therefore it's vital that the Oilers consistently defeat teams below them in the standings. Even if, the records of the Utah Mammoth (37-28-6) and the Oilers (34-28-9) are disturbingly similar, the Mammoth, better known to many as the relocated Arizona Coyotes, lack established stars.
Best on best
Connor McDavid is virtually without a comparable, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that no Mammoth player approaches his statistical game-by-game production. While McDavid surely misses his powerplay partner Leon Draisaitl, he can certainly be expected to make defenders nervous and almost definitely find his way to the scoresheet.
Comparatively, the best offensive player on the Mammoth is Clayton Keller. Keller's 68 points through 71 games is literally half of McDavid's production. It's also less than Oilers first pairing defenseman Evan Bouchard's total. Two other Mammoth players are in Keller's vicinity:
- Nick Schmaltz - 26
goals, 37 assists for a total of
63 points - Dylan Guenther - 34
goals, 25
assists for a total of 59 points
Stars versus stars, the Mammoth simply do not compare. If McDavid has one of those nights where everything is going his way, the game will be over before it begins.
Offense versus defense
Edmonton is a top five scoring team that can't prevent goals against, in spite of relatively decent shot suppression. The Mammoth allow an average of one fewer shot per game, but don't score as much. As one would expect with a team that lacks a true superstar, the Mammoth pay better attention to defense, and have allowed the 6th fewest goals against in 2025/26.
One would tend to think that the higher scoring team should win out in a tightly contested game with similar shot totals for both sides. But the absence of Draisaitl means these seasonal numbers may not reflect the current capabilities of the Oilers roster. Both the 5-on-5 play and the powerplay are missing Draisaitl's abilities, meaning the game is likely to be decided by a single goal.
Time for depth to shine
The Pacific division is hot garbage this season. No team has pulled away from their very average competition, including the Oilers. As a Cup favorite at the beginning of the season, they should be able to easily defeat the Central division's fourth-ranked club and work toward capturing their first division title in many fan's lifetimes.
If the middle and bottom six forwards truly want to be part of a deep Cup run, it's time to step up and produce. Team health concerns are a part of any playoff drive, and if the Oilers cannot overcome Draisaitl's absence in vital late season games, they aren't likely to find their way past the best teams in the Conference, let alone the league as a whole.