Eastern Conference - Hurricanes vs. Panthers
I, for one, am absolutely thrilled that this is the Eastern Conference third round. Why? Because it doesn't matter who wins, the Oilers will have the chance to avenge a Cup finals loss. If the Panthers win, the Oilers will be able to avenge last year's loss. If the Hurricanes win, the Oilers will have the chance to avenge the loss the Hurricanes handed them as a franchise back in 2006.
This series won't be as interesting to watch as the Oilers-Stars series because the storylines aren't as good. There's a much higher gap between these two teams. The Hurricanes are basically another answer to the Jets and Maple Laffs, playoff chokers who can't make it past the third round. This is why I have a hard time picking them to win the series. If you look at their numbers, they have a much lesser attack as a team in comparison to the rest of the final four. The additions of Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven haven't been nearly as impactful to the roster as initially hoped from that blockbuster Mikko Rantanen trade, and with only two players who have double digit numbers - and both players are barely at that point, at that - they are hands down the lowest scoring team left playing in the playoffs. This will make the defensive stifling of the Panthers much easier to succeed in this series. Also, take a look at the Panthers scoring in comparison. It's an unflattering comparison - and with one of the best power forwards in the league in Brad Marchand now playing for the Panthers, expect him to be a huge pest in combination with Mr. Turtle Matthew Tkachuk. Those two will be giving the Hurricanes fits all series.
As for the Hurricanes defence, it's basically a who's who of puck moving blueliners.......from 10 years ago. The fossil of Brent Burns is, for some reason, still playing on their top pairing, forming a not-so-effective duo with Jacob Slavin as the two have a mere seven points between them, and they're being paid over $10.5 million a season to underachieve as a duo. Brilliant cap space usage, Canes.....NOT. At least Burn's contract is mercifully up after this season. Then on the second pairing, you've got the slightly less fossilized Dmitry Orlov, who's getting a raise next year to over $6,000,000 to put a rather pedestrian 28 points in the regular season and a whopping four assists in the playoffs. He'll be 34 by the time he's a free agent again. Good luck with that. For that $$ I'd expect better as a GM. Then on the third pairing, you've got Shayne Gostisbehere, who is somehow putting up seven points in 10 games to lead the Canes in points from the blueline. What bizarro world are we living in? Also, who are Sean Walker and Scott Morrow, who round out their corps anyway? Two nobodies and four fossils make up their D corps. What will they think of next?
But - mind blown - the Canes are actually the better team defensively by the numbers so far, only 18 GA so far, while Florida hasn't been much better than the Oilers, with 29 GA vs. the 34 the Oilers have. Florida - a team that has a reputation as the top defensive team in the league - is sitting at 11th amongst playoff teams. Are the Canes beating them at their own game? The numbers say yes. Good thing Florida's got all that firepower up front, otherwise they probably would've been out of the playoffs by now.
The goaltending is pretty straightforward to look at right now. Laughably it's the battle of the fossils, as Canes starter Freddie Anderson is 35 while Sergei Bobrovsky is 36. How are either of these guys still able to play? I don't get it. But this is a simple analysis. Bobrovsky is good, but Anderson has the hot hand and is thus better. Advantage Canes.
Special teams is also a bit of a bizarro world. With all that firepower, the Panthers PP is struggling, only at barely 20% and limping along at 10th amongst playoff teams. Meanwhile, the Canes are fourth in the league at 28.1%. How is that possible? It defies explanation. Meanwhile, both PKs are thriving, as Carolina and Florida are 1-2 in the league in playoff PK, with Carolina in first and Florida second, 93.3 vs. 89.5%. Clearly, Florida needs to stay out of the box in this series, which may be easier said than done for a team that pays Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand to play for them.
As far as intangibles go, the Panthers are the defending Cup champs, however, that may actually be a curse instead of a good thing, as they're already at the third round, and they may run out of gas if they make it to the finals, especially if this series goes the distance. Good for me, but bad for them.
Even with all the cracks showing in Florida's armour, I'm going to pick them over the Canes - until the Canes can prove otherwise, they're playoff chokers whose ceiling is the third round. Just like Winnipeg and Toronto, I'll believe in them more when they show me they can do more.
My prediction - Panthers win 4-3
Cup finals - Oilers-Panthers rematch, with the Oilers winning this time