That guy is supposed to be back on the ice sometime in the third round and is already practicing with the team again, so now it's only a matter of time. Anyway, let's get this party farted.
Western Conference - Oilers vs. Stars
Unlike teams like Florida or Dallas, the Oilers can't seem to catch a break in between rounds - the next team up always seems to be a tougher opponent than the last. Having vanquished a formidable foe in the Vegas Golden Knights to get here, largely with stifling defensive play as the primary MO, the Oilers will be looking to do the same thing - and with the same game plan against the GKs - against the stars. They also used stifling defensive play against Dallas last year to win, and they'll have to do it again this year.
The Stars will be even more of a menace this year, as they now have something they didn't have last year - Mikko Rantanen. Rantanen currently leads the NHL In playoff scoring with 19 points in 13 games. For the record this is more than the McDrai duo but not much more, as Mcdavid shares a tie for second place with Kyle Connor - and since the Jets are now out he'll be in sole possession of second place with one more point, while Leon Draisaitl is right behind him with 16 in the same 11 games Mcdavid has played.
The Stars are pretty comparable to the Oilers in pretty much every way, so how do the Oilers beat them? The silver lining when it comes to the offensive attack is that the Oilers have better depth than the Stars do. While both teams have three players in double digit scoring so far, take a look at the immediate players behind the big three of both teams. While the Stars only have two players in striking distance of 10 points - Wyatt Johnston and Mikael Granlund - the Oilers have five players within striking distance of 10 points - Nuge (9), Hyman (8), and Perry, Kane, and Brown (7). IMO this is where the Oilers attack will beat the Stars attack in goal scoring - with depth, not necessarily at the top. The McDrai duo will do their thing, of course, but in the previous two series the Oilers depth has shown more of an ability to score than the Stars depth - illustrated by the fact that Kasperi Kapanen, who was playing in only his second game of the playoffs, scored the OT goal that knocked the GKs out of the playoffs - and it was a greasy goal to boot, off a third or fourth effort of whacking away at the puck.
This even handedness is even more evidenced by the fact that the Oilers are second in the league in GF in the playoffs with 43, only Florida has scored more goals than the Oilers have. The Stars are pretty good too, with 34, but that's only sixth in the league and nine less than the Oilers. In terms of GA, the gap isn't nearly as wide, but it's still the Oilers in front by a hair - 12th in the league with 34 GA. The Stars, meanwhile, are 14th with 38 GA. This means while both teams can play D, neither team is particularly good in terms of standout defense, although both can play defense because you don't get to the final four being swiss cheese defensively.
This means whoever wins the series is going to be the team that can outscore and outdefend the other.
What about physicality? Also pretty even-handed. Oilers are fourth in the league and Dallas is fifth in the league in playoff hits with 416 to 406, respectively. In blocked shots, it's another evenly matched stat line, this time with Dallas in front but again not by much - Dallas 223 to Edmonton's 201.
What about special teams? In terms of the PP, as you would expect, it's pretty close - 30.8% to 25% - third in the league vs. fifth. In PK the gap is greater, as Dallas is again third in the league at 86.1%, while the Oilers are 14th with a 66.7%. However, this has come with a couple of caveats. First, most of the damage on the Oilers PK was done in the first round against the Kings, they've stabilized that since then. It's also worth noting that literally every other team between the Oilers and Dallas are out, so if the Oilers can keep their PK stabilized, they will bridge that gap in no time.
Any intangibles? Absolutely. Both teams have a score to settle with each other - Dallas likely wants revenge for the Oilers beating them in the third round in 2024, however, the Oilers are definitely a hungry team, having made it to the Finals and getting within a mere two goals of taking home the Cup. The Oilers will have a lot of confidence after overcoming the one division obstacle stopping them by eliminating the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Stars are riding high after defeating the Colorado Avalanche in the first round. I don't really count their victory against the Jets as an intangible because, as a rule, the Presidents' Trophy winners 9 times out of 10 are doomed to playoff failure - especially a team with a history of choking like the Jets. I consider them a step down from Colorado. Even if you look past the surface and see who has the most past Cup winners, both teams have but a single player - Mikko Rantanen won with Colorado in 2022, while Corey Perry won with Anaheim in 2007. We'll have to call this one a wash.
What about defense and goaltending? Well, that's an interesting topic. Both teams have superstar puck movers in their corps - Evan Bouchard and Miro Heiskanen, specifically - and both teams also have a great selection of players capable of moving the puck. For Dallas, that specifically will be Esa Lindell and Thomas Harley. However, it's important to note that Lindell has largely been invisible in these playoffs, putting up but a single assist, while Heiskanen is just coming back from injury, as I understand it, so the Oilers might be able to exploit those two players, at least early on in the series. The Oilers, meanwhile, can counter with Darnell Nurse, John Klingberg, and Jake Walman. Some are pushing the whole "Dallas is his ex-team" narrative of Klingberg, but Klingberg hasn't suited up for Dallas since 2022, and that was four teams ago, so that narrative seems silly to me. As a unit, the Oilers numbers outside of Bouchard aren't that impressive, but all three of them have come up in the clutch when necessary. Let's call that a wash between the two teams - both have great strengths and both have great warts. In goal, I have to give the edge to Dallas. They have one of the league's best in Jake Oettinger and, as his tandem partner have Casey DeSmith, who, although he doesn't have a lot of playoff experience, has performed when called upon. Although the numbers of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard as a tandem aren't quite so impressive, it narrows the gap significantly when you consider the following factors: 1) Skinner outduelled Oettinger in the 2024 playoffs and thus can do it again 2) Pickard is the only undefeated goalie in the playoffs this year and 3) Skinner has the hot hand right now, having shut out Vegas in two consecutive games. That being said, of course, Oettinger wasn't exactly chopped liver against the Jets - although when you consider the fact that the Stars were playing playoff chokers, those numbers become less impressive. Let's call the goaltending for the Stars, but barely.
My prediction - The Oilers depth scoring and past history of outduelling Oettinger will win the day once more, but the series will be hard fought. Oilers win 4-3.