Boy is Vegas likely to see a steady diet of that guy in the photo. Anyway, the last of the first round series are done, so now we can move onto the second round. These playoffs saw the biggest turnover of teams in and out of the playoffs as I've seen in quite some time. As a result, there were lots of first round series where one team was making the playoffs again for the first time in a long time. Meanwhile, some teams that have been playoff mainstays for a long time - like Pittsburgh, Boston, Nashville, and the NY Rangers, didn't make the playoffs at all, and neither did some upstart teams who fell just short - such as Columbus, Detroit, Calgary, and Vancouver. Those GMs have some work to do to figure out how to get their teams over the top. In the meantime, we have one series of two heavyweight cup contenders going at it with three ho-hum series that should be over fairly quickly. I'll save the best for first.
Oilers-Knights
This is going to be must-watch TV in the second round. Vegas, despite the fact they lost Jonathan Marchessault to free agency last offseason, still managed to lead the division somehow - which of course is meaningless once the playoffs roll around. Vegas played the Minnesota Wild in the first round, a team that is a playoff contender but not a serious cup contender. Fortunately for the Wild, they'll have more than $13 million in extra cap space thanks to the bulk of the Parise and Suter buyouts finishing as the buyout cap hits go from $7,000,000 plus each to way down to $833,333 apiece. It remains to be seen how the Wild will spend that dough - I have to think that one of either Mitch Marner or John Tavares has to be on their radar as a supplement to the skills of Kirill Kaprisov. Anyway, due to this cap handicap the Wild have been relegated to only playoff contenders and that's it. They were one of the wildcard teams and just don't have the horses to compete with Vegas, so predictably they fell to Vegas four games to two in the first round.
Vegas, meanwhile, has what they've always had - solid depth to complement their elite talents in Jack Eichel and Mark Stone in the forward corps and Alex Pietrangelo on D. Their second line leaves a lot to be desired, however, as Tomas Hertl has been handicapped on the wings with the overcooked Brandon Saad, who should be playing lower down in the forward ranks, and a guy in Keegan Kolesar on the other side who doesn't look like he belongs in the top six forward group. We can chalk this motley crew of wingers on the second line in part due to the injury of a young key forward in Pavel Dorofeyev who broke open this season for 35 goals.
We can also chalk it up to the underperforming Ivan Barbashev, who only had 1-1-2 in the first round against Minnesota - and that -4 next to his name certainly doesn't help either. I'm willing to bet coach K sees that and sees something he can exploit in the series, seeing as how the Oilers possess a hell of a lot more firepower than Minnesota. We can also chalk it up to a ridiculous coaching decision to play Brett Howden on the fourth line despite the fact he put up 23 goals in the regular season and another three in six games in the first round. Why would Vegas head coach Bruce Cassidy play Howden in the bottom six and Keegan Kolesar in the top six? That doesn't make any sense to me, as Howden seems to be the obviously superior player. If Cassidy continues that in the second round that could prove fatal to Vegas's offence.
The Oilers, meanwhile, saw two solid forward groups emerge in the top six for them in the first round against a tougher opponent in the Kings. The biggest development is the emergent chemistry of a second line center by Nuge with Evander Kane and Zach Hyman as his wingers. This line has proven to be so good in the first round that it's allowed coach K to staple Draisaitl and McDavid next to each other on the first line with an incredibly playoff effective and seemingly ageless Corey Perry rounding out the line. Perry played largely in the bottom six forward group but double K seems to do this to save up his energy for the playoffs.
As far as depth scoring goes, IMO the Oilers bottom six depth is just a smidge better than Vegas' at this point in time. While Vegas does have at least one guy that can score on both their third and fourth lines, the Oilers scoring present in their bottom six definitely has Vegas's beat, IMO - so much so that against the Kings the Oilers actually had the ability to roll four lines as coach K wanted to against the Kings. Whether he does that against Vegas or goes with more traditional line matching remains to be seen. However, if you look at the Oilers bottom six, we have reliable veteran Adam Henrique, who I would argue by the numbers was still the weak spot on this line, flanked by a physical pest with great hands in Trent Frederic who put up 1-2-3 against the Kings. On the other side is the rejuvenated Connor Brown, healthier than he's been in two seasons, thus we are finally getting the full version of what we signed in the 2023 offseason as Brown put up 3-2-5 against the Kings, including one heck of an impressive foot race win to pot an empty netter for one of his goals.
The fourth line is firing on all cylinders as well, with the pleasant surprise of ex-Knight Mattias Janmark at center - I call him a pleasant surprise because he seemed like a square peg in a round hole at that position in the regular season - another reason why the regular season should mean squat to you. Flanking Janmark are two guys who have been relegated down the lineup since the promotion of Corey Perry and the return of Evander Kane - physical defensive presence Vasily Podkolzin and top six exile Viktor Arvidsson. Nonetheless, this line still put their stamp on the Kings series at times as all three players contributed on offence, even Janmark who is known more as a defensive guy than someone who produces offence.
The Oilers D has likewise found ways to contribute as well. The Oilers, with the return of John Klingberg and Jake Walman from injury, now boast a top four with four blueliners that can move the puck - the top pairing of Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard is a puck moving super duo albeit admittedly a defensive adventure. Vegas is a step up as a team from LA, so whether coach K sticks with this top pairing remains to be seen.
Even the third pairing of Brett Kulak and Ty Emberson is firing right now - mostly as a defensive and PK presence, but Kulak has shown he can up his secondary puck moving game too as he put up two assists in the Kings series. All three of these pairings are bound to give Vegas fits throughout the series.
The million dollar question, however, is does Vegas have the better corps? Some are saying that but I'm not convinced of that. Vegas has the better all around player in Alex Pietrangelo who can move the puck, be responsible defensively, and play physical, and while the Oilers have Darnell Nurse who can do that too I have to give the edge to Pietrangelo as that player type. However, outside of this I'm not convinced the GK's defense is better as a unit. Granted, between Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, and Noah Hanifin, the Knights have guys who can move the puck on each pairing, and that's great, but that leaves three spots occupied by either seat fillers or more defensive guys. I don't really count Brayden McNabb as a puck mover as he's never even eclipsed the 30 point mark in the regular season and hasn't even eclipsed double digits in the playoffs, even in the year they won the Cup. That's a more traditional way to distribute your D, but the Kings showed that the Oilers model of putting four puck movers in the top four, playing them steadily with the firepower in the forward corps, and it's going to be a hard unit to defend. Granted, the Oilers will miss Mattias Ekholm in their corps again until the third round, maybe the end of this round if we're lucky. But, they overcame his loss in the first round and IMO they can do it again.
As far as the goaltenders, both Vegas and Edmonton saw their starters falter in the early going, much like a lot of playoff teams this postseason. Where the difference lies, IMO, is in the tandems. The Oilers will shoot a lot more shots at Hill than the Wild did, and they won in the first round in spite of Hill, not because of him. That may prove to be a problem if that continues in round two. Skinner likewise faltered but he faltered in the second round last year too and then rebounded to be sharp enough to take the team all the way to the finals. Yes, Hill was in net when the GKs won in 2023, but he played A LOT better that year than he played in the first round of this postseason. His round one performance should not inspire confidence in Las Vegas. His tandem partner is Swiss youngster Akira Schmid, who put in an admirable performance in less than 20 minutes of work in round one. However, Schmid has a mere 10 playoff games on his resume, and only eight starts. That's still very green behind the ears and hardly a great track record if Hill gets injured or underperforms as badly as he did in round one. It's a tall order considering all the firepower the Oilers have on their roster from top to bottom. Meanwhile Skinner has a history of rebounding from tough performances - can we say the same for Hill? The bigger factor, however, IMO, is that Skinner's tandem partner is Calvin Pickard, whose numbers weren't that great but nonetheless he was the only goalie in the first round to go 4-0. IMO this series will come down to which goalie tandem outduels the other, as both teams are fairly evenly matched at both forward and defense - even when one team or the other tilts that areas of their game in their favor it's not by much.
The Oilers also have the better PP as a team going for them right now as well, while the GKs hold the edge on the PK. Will that PK hold up against a superior team in Edmonton? Only time will tell.
Overall the GKs are a very good defensive team while the Oilers are a very good offensive team. So what this series is going to come down to is goaltending and whether offence or defence will win the day. As an intangible the Oilers also have a score to settle with Vegas as it was Vegas that beat them in the second round of 2023, and the Oilers will want revenge for that. Granted, that team didn't have the same top six or depth that this edition of the Oilers has. The Oilers will be tougher on the GKs this time around.
My prediction - Oilers win the series 4-3. The GKs will make it interesting but the Oilers are simply too multidimensional to lose this one.