After a rather forgettable game spent in his playoff debut in the first round against the Kings, it appears Jeff Skinner learned how to elevate his game for the playoffs as he scored in game five of the third round to help eliminate the Stars. Thus, I am giving him the nod in the picture this time around. I, for one, hope Skinner now stays in the lineup as Zach Hyman's injury replacement so he can build on that performance.
What is there to say about this matchup? As has been the pattern for the Oilers, they're now facing the toughest opponent they've faced thus far in the playoffs. Vegas was tougher than LA, and Dallas was tougher than Vegas, thus Florida will be a tougher opponent than Dallas.
This might be the teams that are most evenly matched of all the playoff teams - except that hopefully, now the result will be flipped. It's largely the same teams, although as players on both sides have acknowledged, both teams have had some turnover and are subsequently even stronger than last year. Going through the numbers both teams are pretty evenly matched this time around. Here's a rapid-fire style look at both teams right now.
Goals For - Florida 66, Oilers 65. Also important that although the Oilers have the two league playoff leaders in scoring on their roster, Florida's depth has been just a little bit better, as the Oilers have the McDrai duo with 26 and 25 points respectively (Florida's leading scorer is Barkov with 17 points - that's only good enough for fourth on the Oilers), Florida's depth scoring has been just a bit better as Florida has 10 players with 10+ points, with two more on deck with seven points, while the Oilers have seven with one more on deck with eight points (Connor Brown). How do you pick who has the better offense from that? Both teams can make a case.
Goals Against - Florida wins again but only by six goals, 39 to the Oilers 45.
Hits - Florida is first in the league with 812 but the Oilers are second with 646.
Blocked shots - Both teams neck and neck again but this time it's Edmonton better with 290 to Florida's 249.
Giveaways - Oilers get this dubious honor with 223, but Florida is not far behind with 211.
Takeaways - Once again both teams are 1-2 in this category but Florida is in front 76-67 - again a very close metric.
Penalty Kill - The one area where the Panthers have a clear advantage, topping the league at 87.9%, while the Oilers are a mere 66%, 14th in the league for playoff teams.
Power Play - This time the Oilers have the edge, 30% to Florida's 23.2% - fourth vs. sixth in the league.
Home and away records - Florida is 8-2 on the road in these playoffs but only 4-3 at home, while the Oilers are 5-2 on the road and a sparkling 7-1 at home. Considering the fact that the Oilers have home ice advantage for the first time in these playoffs (thanks to one more win than Florida in the regular season), that may prove to be a psychological difference maker. Normally I would agree with myself on what I wrote earlier, but I think I may have stumbled upon an exception to that rule.
Roster turnover - the Oilers lost the speed and secondary hands of Ryan Mcleod as well as the speed and youth of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to the St. Louis offer sheets. Unfortunately for St. Louis, seeing as how Holloway was injured the whole time and Broberg had rather pedestrian numbers on an inferior team, those offer sheets definitely blew up in their faces. The Oilers replaced those three players on their roster with Vasily Podkolzin, John Klingberg, Jeff Skinner, Jake Walman, Viktor Arvidsson, and Ty Emberson - players who I would argue have made more impact to the Oilers this season than the aforementioned trio did last season. The Panthers, on the other hand, lost Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Brandon Montour, Josh Mahura, Kevin Stenlund, Ryan Lomberg, and Kyle Okposo. They've added Nate Schmidt, Adam Boqvist, Brad Marchand, Nico Sturm, Tomas Nosek, and Seth Jones to their roster. This seems to be a case of adding quality over quantity. Let's call this one a wash.
Goaltending - Sergei Bobrovsky has played every single game for the Panthers during these playoffs and has the superior numbers to his counterpart in Stuart Skinner. However, it's important to note that Skinner has played very well as of late so his play has picked up at exactly the right time. Here's where it gets interesting though - if the Oilers need to make a change Calvin Pickard is back and healthy again - and he remains the only undefeated goaltender in the league these playoffs.
If Bobrovsky ever gets injured we can essentially consider the series over for the Panthers, as they have this bleeping guy backing him up, and you can see for yourself his career playoff stats are a complete and total trainwreck. This means the Oilers have better depth at the position so they get a very slight edge. The Panthers better hope Bobrovsky remains healthy, otherwise, their Cup hopes are essentially dead.
The Oilers firepower up front and from the back end will make mincemeat of Vanacek. Worth noting as well that Skinner/Pickard have now outduelled Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill, and Jake Oettinger, three of the league's best. Bobrovsky? Not so much. He faced an overcooked Andrei Vasilevsky, the tandem of Justin Woll/Anthony Stolarz, and Freddie Anderson, whose game fell apart when it mattered most. So Skinner has had a harder time getting to the finals than Bobrovsky.
Intangibles - The Oilers are going to want revenge for last year's result - and the players trying to win their first will be hungrier to win than the guys looking to repeat. Not to mention they've got home ice advantage, which normally wouldn't matter but now this time when the two teams are so evenly matched I believe it will. If game seven is played in Edmonton this tilts the ice in the Oilers' favor. Since they haven't lost a game at home since the first round, that bodes well for them in this series. Although Florida has the better away record the Oilers' better home record may mean even the three games being played in Sunrise may not matter too much in the grand scheme of things. Also, Rogers Place is going to be louder than BB&T Center in Sunrise which gives the Oilers a definite advantage, which gets even bigger when compared to their impressive home record so far. Of course, as I already stated the Panthers aren't exactly shrinking violets on the road, so the games at Rogers Place will likely be impressive with many momentum changes.
Health - The Panthers have a relatively healthy roster, missing only bottom six forward Eetu Luostarinen. However, the Oilers are missing Zach Hyman, out for the rest of the playoffs which is a big blow; however if Jeff Skinner stays in as expected he'll at least replace Hyman's scoring, or so it seems on paper. Whether or not he can replace the hitting machine Hyman became remains to be seen. Connor Brown is technically injured now as well but it sounds like he's ready to go again. Alec Regula is out but since we haven't seen him play even a regular season game it's not like he was much of a loss anyway. That being said, Florida still has a slight edge health-wise.
So, who am I picking to win?
I'm making the same prediction as last year, Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3 to win the Cup. The win will take place at home for the Oilers. Book it.