5 questions Oilers must answer during 6-game road trip
As the Oilers embark on their longest road trip of the 2023-24 campaign, we look at five questions that need to be answered over the next six games.
They often say perception is reality, and this seems apt considering the just completed six-game homestand for the Oilers. On the one hand they had an overall record of 4-2-0, which is good – on the other hand, they lost the last two games and the doubts from earlier in the season have returned.
Heading into the six-game homestand — the longest of the season for the Oilers – we asked five questions. Three were definitely positive responses, one was mostly a yes, and while the other was a no, it wasn’t actually a negative.
In any event, we’re going to do a similar exercise for the Oilers’ road trip, which begins on Tuesday night in New York. Here are five questions which need answering during the next two weeks:
1) Is this just a blip or something more serious?
It’s always been fascinating how the result of a game can impact people so much. A win puts a team and fans alike in a euphoric mood, while a loss can feel like the end of the world to some.
If it’s an NFL season, these emotions make more sense, with only 17 games during a regular season, thus increasing the impact of every win or loss on a team’s playoff chances. When it comes to the NHL however, in theory it’s not quite the same impact, with 82 regular season games to play.
And yet, because of how the Oilers’ season has gone to date, you can appreciate why each game has already taken on an added importance. All because of starting the 2023-24 campaign with the fourth-worst record in team history through 13 games.
At one stage the team was even tied with the Sharks for the fewest points. As such, it’s been an uphill battle ever since, with the Oilers desperately scrambling to get back into playoff contention.
In this respect, as the 3-9-1 start had people despondent, it was the exact opposite feeling during the eight-game winning streak, tied for the second-longest in Oilers history. Suddenly the team was within one point of a precious playoff spot in the Western Conference.
However, all feeling that the team was back to their best, was just as suddenly dispelled with the past two games. Not helping was the manner of the two losses, 7-4 to the Lightning and 5-1 to the Panthers.
The good news is that the Oilers only sit five points out of a playoff spot as of Monday morning, and with games in hand on most of the teams above them. However, it remains to be seen if they can bounce back right away, of if the two losses signify something more serious.
2) Will the goaltending recover or is a move needed?
Things had been going so well for Stuart Skinner recently. He had gone 10-2-0 record in his previous 12 starts, recording a .914 save percentage and 2.30 Goals Against Average in the process.
Then came Thursday night at home to the Lightning, when the winning streak was stopped emphatically with the aforementioned 7-4 loss. And Skinner was squarely to blame, as he allowed five goals on just 22 shots.
In fairness, the Edmonton native stood up and accepted it was his fault; that his team had played well and he let them down. The question is, will this be a one-off, or could it lead to more performances akin to those he produced earlier in the season?
At one point, Skinner had the third-worst save percentage in the NHL among all goaltenders. He also had a 1-5-1 record in his first seven starts, while also allowing four goals in a relief appearance in the season opener.
Not helping the goalie situation, was Calvin Pickard’s most recent start in the 5-1 home loss to the Panthers. After previously looking good in three appearances for the Oilers, it all went wrong on Saturday night.
In fairness to Pickard, he was probably only to blame for two of the five goals, but by the same token he never came through with the crucial save. When it was all said and done, he’d stopped 34 of the 39 shots he faced.
We should also mention that Jack Campbell continues to disappoint in Bakersfield. His most recent start on Saturday night, saw him pulled just past the halfway point of the game versus the Firebirds, after he allowed four goals on 21 shots.
Given all of this combined, the previous concerns about the Oilers’ goalie position have returned. How they perform during these upcoming six games, will have a big influenced on whether or not Ken Holland and company decide it’s finally time to pull the trigger on a trade.
3) How will the Oilers match up with the Rangers?
The New York Rangers are flying right now. At the time of posting, they are tied for the most points in the Eastern Conference and just four behind the Vegas Golden Knights overall.
The Rangers’ overall standing includes a stellar record at home. In the fortress that is Madison Square Garden they are so far 10-3-0 on the season, which has them on a better pace than last season’s 23-13-5 mark at home.
Concurrently, the Oilers have been terrible so far on their travels in 2023-24, with a 4-8-0 record. By contrast they were excellent on the road last season, with their 27-11-3 record actually better than their overall results at home.
For what it’s worth, the Oilers beat the Rangers last season at Madison Square Garden. The visitors rallied from a three-goal deficit by scoring four goals in the third period, including the winning goal with just 2:02 remaining.
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In this respect, we know a Oilers roster which is largely unchanged from last season is capable of winning again in New York. Whether they will though is another matter, with them (currently) not as good overall as last season, while the Rangers are better.
Hope comes in the fact that the Oilers are actually scoring at a slightly better rate per contest, at 3.43 goals per game versus 3.28. On the flip side, the Rangers have the eighth-best defensive record in the NHL at 2.72 goals allowed per contest, as opposed to the Oilers being sixth-worst, at 3.46.
Interestingly, the Rangers have the third-best power play unit, just above the Oilers in fourth place. Where there is real separation is in the penalty kill, with the Rangers ranked sixth-best, and the Oilers just 20th.
Ultimately, the Oilers face a tough challenge in getting something at Madison Square Garden. Their most likely route to a positive result, will be winning a high-scoring affair.
4) Can Connor McDavid continue his hot streak?
This question is more of a fun one, although it doesn’t make it any less important. As much as the defensive play was key to the recent winning streak, so was the improvement in Connor McDavid’s points production.
It’s been an interesting season for McDavid, with arguably more adversity than usual. There was the recent controversy surrounding his induction into the Canada Hall of Fame, preceded by unnecessary criticism from so-called fans and an injury which caused him to miss two games.
At the heart of any dissatisfaction was the lack of points from the five-time Art Ross Trophy winner, with ‘only’ 16 in his first 16 games this season. In some respects, this showed exactly how much is expected of him, combined with people just taking his usual level of production for granted.
Fortunately for everyone connected with the Oilers, this is a man with superior mental fortitude and determination. Starting with four assists in a 5-0 shutout of the Captials, McDavid’s been on a tear of late.
The six-time All-Star has 25 points in his last 10 games, which encompassed the recent eight-game winning streak. As a result, he’s soared up the scoring charts in the NHL.
At one stage not even in the top 100, McDavid now sits in tied-fifth place as of Monday morning with 41 points. Yes there’s still six points separating him from second place, and 11 from first, but he does have games in hand. (Even allowing for missing the aforementioned two games.)
The recent scoring surge was also highlighted by an impressive feat not seen since 1995-96, when the 26-year-old had three points in the 5-4 shootout win over the Golden Knights. As per Ryan Gaydos of Fox Sports, he became the first player since Mario Lemieux to have three-point periods in three consecutive games.
With all this said, Oilers fans will be eager to see if McDavid can continue at his recent pace during the six games on the road. If he can, it should contribute significantly to the outcome of our fifth and final question.
5) Will the Oilers win the overall road trip?
While this is technically the Oilers’ longest road trip of the season, it’s not all in one stretch. They will play three games out East, then return home for five days during the Christmas period, before completing the road schedule on the West coast.
Regardless, this will still be a demanding stretch for the Oilers, even more so now after losing their last two games at home. Heading onto the road with a 10-game winning streak would have had us a lot more confident about what they’re capable of doing on this trip.
We’ve already referenced the Oilers’ superior road record last season, so we know what they are capable of. However, it’s about what this season’s version of the team can do, and so far they’ve quite simply not been good enough.
First up there’s a trip to the Islanders on Tuesday night, who are 8-3-6 at home so far in 2023-24 and currently holding onto a playoff spot. Further, it doesn’t bode well that the Oilers were blanked 3-0 last season at UBS Arena.
Next up it’s the Devils on Thursday night, who are 6-7-1 at home so far, and just one point out of a playoff spot at the time of posting. As a point of reference they also beat the Oilers at home last season, 5-2.
Then, after facing the Rangers and returning home for Christmas, it’s onto San Jose, the scene for the lowest point of this season as they lost 3-2 and cost Jay Woodcroft his job. To give you an idea of how different things were last season, the Oilers beat the Sharks 6-1 and 7-1 respectively at SAP Center.
Next it’s onto Los Angeles and the Kings, who they split the two away games with last season. The Kings are pretty average at home so far with a 5-5-3 record, although their outstanding road record has them in a playoff position, so who knows what to expect.
Finally, the Oilers will go to Anaheim, to face a Ducks side they’ve already dominated this season. The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the NHL and this is reflected in their 5-10-0 record at home.
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Overall, if we had to make a prediction, the Oilers won’t win this six-game road trip, although there would be no issue with being proven wrong. However, we believe they have an excellent chance to go .500, which would actually be a success given how this season has gone to date.