What’s behind the Oilers’ recent turnaround?
The Edmonton Oilers are starting to play a lot better as a team. What is the reason? Lets take a look as to why this turnaround has happened?
A couple of lapses by the skaters and Stuart Skinner having an off night may have contributed to the Oilers’ 7-4 loss to Tampa Bay, but let’s face it, 8-1-0 in the past nine games is still very good.
So what’s behind the recent turnaround the Oilers have been on? Several factors have gone into them, let’s look at them now:
1) Edmonton Oilers Health
Some players started the season or missed time while injured, which affected the team. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Ryan Mcleod all were either playing injured or missed time at the start of the season. I don’t care which team you’re on, when that much of your core plus a key role player is struggling health-wise, it’s bound to affect your team.
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All of these players are now back up to 100 percent health and it’s obvious in their play. The Mcdrai duo – who weren’t in the top 100 in NHL scoring a month ago, are now in either the top 10 (McDavid, sixth in the league) or top 20 (Draisaitl, 20th in the league). That’s quite a turnaround.
Kane has seen his role reduced in the last game or two, but he was leading the league in hits earlier this season. Ekholm missed all of training camp, as did Mcleod – easily a top-two player in the bottom-six forward group.
Although Ekholm’s partner Evan Bouchard was still rolling offensively at the beginning of the season, we saw the effect it had on him defensively when his partner was at reduced capacity, and it wasn’t good.
Regardless of what the idiotic haters will say, Darnell Nurse plays a huge role on this team and if you’re not too busy hammering him with false accusations, you can see how it affects the team when he’s not able to play at his best.
McDavid missed two games earlier in the season, and he’s looking like his old self as that extra gear he’s known for is back and he’s scoring dazzling goals for us once more.
Improved team health is a big reason for the turnaround.
2) Improved defensive play
The Oilers offence being generated now by this team has a catalyst that wasn’t there at the beginning of the season – better defence. It’s a well-known fact that in the NHL defence leads to offence. Offence might be generated of its own accord on rare occasions but usually, a good defensive play is the catalyst for scoring chances or goals – especially those of the dangerous grade A variety.
Case in point – the San Jose Sharks have the worst GA in the league as well as the worst goal differential and they’re currently in second last place in the division. The only reason they’re not last is because they’ve managed to grind out three OTL points that last place Anaheim doesn’t have; that’s pretty much it.
The Vancouver Canucks, on the other hand, who are absolutely rolling right now, are second in the division only to Vegas and they have the league’s best GF (118) and goal differential (+40) and stand second in the division in GA (76). Since the Canucks have been so terrible for so long, whether or not this lasts is up for debate, but there’s no question that they’ve put together a solid (almost) first half of the season.
At the beginning of the season only three Oilers were on the good side of the +/- ledger – three – and two of those were right on the line at 0. Now they have 10 – and I count at least six other players who are capable of joining them by the end of the season.
Part of that was team health, and part was adapting to the zone defence that the team implemented and Jay Woodcroft was trying to instil before his firing and that Kris Knoblauch has continued to utilise as he grabbed the reins.
But the biggest factor has to be the players’ re-dedication to proper defensive play. After all, it’s not the 1980s, where you can outscore your mistakes.
Jack Campbell and Brown are now left as the only players still struggling from the beginning of the season, and we all know what happened to Campbell at the beginning of November.
3) Betting goaltending
Since we’re only 85 games into Stuart Skinner’s career, we’re still not 100 percent sure what we have in him yet.
But one inalienable truth is evident, with the rebirth of better defensive play from the skaters has been a reduction in grade-A dangerous shots and shots against.
You can never completely blame a goalie for his play, as it is very dependent on the players in front of him. If they constantly hang him out to dry, don’t block shots, don’t hit the opposing players enough, don’t poke check, and don’t snuff out the opposition’s attack, then it doesn’t matter who the goalie is, the goaltending will suffer if team defence is terrible in front of him.
We saw this with Skinner earlier in the season. When team defence suffered so did his goaltending. Campbell was struggling himself as well and is unfortunately still struggling in Bakersfield. Skinner was playing around a .930 save percentage during the winning streak, and that’s a heck of a turnaround. So, although his season numbers at this point don’t look great, there’s reason to hope for a better second half of the season and change.
As for who will platoon with Skinner that position remains in flux right now. Calvin Pickard, of course, was called up once Campbell was sent down and has actually been a pleasant surprise. He started for the team against New Jersey and absolutely killed it, turning aside 26 of 27 shots on goal, including a few key saves, and finished the night with a .962 save percentage.
The million-dollar question is this – is Pickard the answer long-term for the Oilers? Right now the answer is probably not, but late bloomers have happened before in goal, even on this team (Dwayne Roloson, anyone?) so don’t write anyone’s career epitaph when it barely starts.
At the very least Pickard should’ve used that game in New Jersey to secure himself more starts in the future. Let’s hope Knoblauch agrees instead of just starting Skinner all the time. No offence, but I don’t think Skinner can handle 60 games a season right now, especially at this point in his career. Don’t rule out Pickard getting a one-way extension at this point.
Complicating things even more is the play of Olivier Rodrigue down in Bakersfield. It’s only been five games down there for him, but he has a .935 save percentage and a stingy 2.17 GAA, so it appears he should have at least worked himself into the conversation. Will he get a callup later in the season? If a playoff spot is more solidified and there isn’t more room to move up at the end of the season, I have no doubt he will.
Then of course there’s the rumor that Ken Holland is furiously working the phones trying to drum up a trade, especially if he can get rid of Campbell in the process. If Columbus remains in last place in the Metropolitan division closer to the end of the season, I have to think they’d be more amenable to trading away Elvis Merzlikens without asking for a king’s ransom in return.
Mackenzie Blackwood in San Jose is another intriguing option, granted you’re trading with a division rival in that case and the Oilers might be forced into an overpay. Jake Allen on the Habs would be a good short-term option, but at 33 I doubt he has 5+ years left in the tank.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens in this regard. I expect things to heat up at the trade deadline in a few months.
4) More scoring from the bottom six
Scoring from the bottom six was close to non-existent earlier in the season for the Oilers, but now the lines have started to get rolling. Mcleod has two new wingers on his side on the third line now in Kane and Brown, but for most of the season has usually been the same two in McLovin (Warren Foegele) and Mattias Janmark.
As a result of this, Knoblauch has been more inclined to roll his lines and give the bottom six more ice time than he or Woodcroft did earlier in the season.
The fourth line has really gotten going the last couple of games. Especially and ever since James Hamblin has come up from Bakersfield and really injected some life into the fourth line. He hasn’t produced any offence in seven games, but is pushing and doing all the right things – especially defensively.
He’s found himself with regular linemates in the form of Sam Gagner and Derek Ryan, a trio that has proven to be a fantastically solid fourth line. Between Hamblin’s defensive play, Ryan’s cerebral play, and Gagner’s experience, this is a line that has been absolutely fantastic the last couple of games, especially the wingers in Ryan and Gagner who have both generated offence in the last three games.
As for Hamblin? Don’t be surprised if he’s been told he should get an apartment in Edmonton, as he’s staying up.
It might make for an awkward situation when Dylan Holloway comes back from injury. Although the logical thing to do would be to sit Brown temporarily and play Holloway instead – assuming he doesn’t need a conditioning stint in Bakersfield first.
The only blemish at this point? The two worst +/- ratings on the team belong to Mclovin and Brown – -9 and -10 respectively.
What About Kris Knoblauch?
Do I consider Knoblauch a key point of the turnaround? Not really. After all, he hasn’t really coached all that much different from Woodcroft. The only real difference I can see is that Knoblauch is much less likely to go with an 11-7 skater configuration (11 forwards, seven defencemen) than Woodcroft was, and prefers the more traditional 12-6 (12 forwards, six defencemen) skater configuration. Woodcroft tended to go to that configuration on occasion, especially when the team was in such a cap crunch they couldn’t even ice a full lineup.
I think it was more the kick in the butt the team got when Woodcroft was fired that may have contributed to the turnaround, rather than Knoblauch himself. Not to say he isn’t a capable coach, but I don’t see him as a huge upgrade on Woodcroft, actually, more of a lateral move, to be honest.
Next. Skinner deserves a break despite horrific outing for Oilers. dark
Knoblauch still prefers the same zone defence Woodcroft was trying to instil in the team, so nothing has changed in that regard. Knoblauch still basically gives the same message to the players Woodcroft did. He still plays guys on merit and plays them down the lineup or out of it altogether when they are struggling. He’s kept the special teams units the same.
In short, it’s basically the same type of coach under a different name.