3 Jack Campbell and Edmonton Oilers Outcomes
When it comes to Jack Campbell and the Edmonton Oilers, the story for both sides is not a good one so far. Two off-seasons ago the Edmonton Oilers signed the, at the time, biggest free agent goalie available that offseason. The deal was the first deal announced on free agent day and it appeared to solve the Oilers goaltending woes.
Fast forward two years and that signing has done anything but solve the goaltending woes. If anything it is the goaltending woe. Campbell so far this season has not been good. He has struggled so much that he is no longer in the NHL.
Now he did have a couple of good runs while with the Oilers, but recently the is no doubt that he is not worth the $5 million the Edmonton Oilers signed him for. Plus his stint in the AHL is proving that perhaps he may not bounce back.
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What does this mean for the Edmonton Oilers?
The main thing that this means for the Oilers is that they are going to have to figure out what they are going to do moving forward. Are they going to keep him in the minors for the rest of the season? Maybe. But some plan needs to be in the works moving forward.
I feel bad for Campbell as a person, in the past he has shown that he can play well, but right now it seems he can’t get out of his way.
In this article, I have put together a list of the three most likely outcomes of the Edmonton Oilers and Jack Campbell saga.
Jack Campbell Stays An Oiler
This is by far the most unlikely outcome, but there is still the chance that Jack Campbell will start to play well in the AHL and get another chance on the NHL club. After getting a chance if he plays at least average hockey and can be a serviceable backup to Stuart Skinner, then there is a chance he could stay.
As I said above, there is a chance this will happen, but the more games he plays in the AHL the more unlikely it looks like he will be able to turn his career around. Through 9 games played with the Bakersfield Condors Campbell’s stat line has been pretty unimpressive.
His 3.22 GAA and 0.894SV% make him the worst of the three goalies that have played this season for the Condors. The fact that Campbell isn’t even the best goalie on an AHL team does not look good for him to come back to the NHL any time soon.
The fact that Calvin Pickard has played solid is also making it hard for Campbell to come back to the Edmonton Oilers. In Pickard’s last start against the New Jersey Devils, he laid down a 0.962SV% and was a major part of the win.
If Campbell was able to bring his game back to an NHL level and he did end up getting called back up there is still no promise that he would still be an Oiler after next offseason anyway. Paying a backup $5 million is not ideal in a cap scenario.
The only way that the $5 million hit will become a non-issue is if Skinner’s game falls off a cliff and Campbell becomes the full-time starter. If that happens though the Edmonton Oilers will likely have bigger fish to fry as they will likely not be a playoff team.
Edmonton Oilers Trade Jack Campbell
Of the three options, this would be the one that I think could help the Edmonton Oilers the most. If the Oilers can throw Campbell into a trade and get rid of all or most of his cap hit that would be a huge win for this team.
The problem with this is there isn’t a long list of teams lining up to take Campbell and his $5 million. This means that the Edmonton Oilers are going to need to add something of value to a deal if they want to be rid of Campbell and more importantly his cap hit.
The Oilers management is going to need to take a long look at the pros/cons of what they give up in order to make a move. Whatever the trade is as long as Campbell is involved in the deal the Oilers are going to need to add to cancel out the cap hit.
I don’t see a way Campbell is moved and a first-round pick isn’t involved. Whether that it is a a future pick or one of the Edmonton Oilers previous picks like Xavier Bourgault or Beau Akey. It might even cost a combination of these.
If the Oilers are going to move these assets they better have a plan to use that cap space and use it well. If they move Campbell and don’t use his cap space to do something substantial to improve this team, then no matter what the cost of the trade it will be a loss.
This will be the hardest solution for the Oilers to come out ahead. Just because it would be a huge gamble on the trade itself and they also need to make a move that makes it worth it after that move is made.
Jack Campbell Buy-Out
The last and most likely option for the ending of the Edmonton Oilers Jack Campbell relationship is a buy-out this offseason. The reason this is most likely is it clears up a decent amount of cap space and will have a minimal effect after that.
If the Edmonton Oilers were to buy out Campbell this offseason here is how the savings/cost will lay out moving forward.
2024-25: Savings of $3.9 Million
2025-26: Savings of $2.7 Million
2026-27: Savings of $2.4 Million
2027-28: Cost Of $1.5 Million
2028-29: Cost Of $1.5 Million
2029-30: Cost Of $1.5 Million
In my opinion, dead cap space is one of the worst things a team could have so if there is a way to avoid a buy-out then I would say don’t do it. When it comes to the play of Campbell though a buy-out in the costing years is better than his $3.85 buried in the minors cap hit.
Another thing that needs to be looked at in the last 3 years, is if they can get a cheap backup goalie at around $1 million then the total cap hit would be the same as if they had a $2.5 million goalie. The $1.5 million in dead cap is not that much, considering the fact right now they had $1.9 million in dead space in the James Neal buyout.
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As much as I would like Jack Campbell to turn things around and become a contributor in the Edmonton Oilers it doesn’t look like that is going to be the case. The question moving forward now is what are the Edmonton Oilers going to do with Campbell and his $5 million cap hit.
I laid out what I think the main 3 options are, but it comes down to Ken Holland and Jeff Jackson on what they will do. One thing is certain whatever they do, it can’t make this team worse moving forward.