4 Oilers bold predictions for December
In what will be a pivotal month for the Oilers, we make four daring predictions for how December will play out in Edmonton.
These are good times in Edmonton, at least compared to a couple of weeks ago. There’s actually now hope for the Oilers, that the 2023-24 season is going to turn out as previously predicted.
Of course there’s still a long way to go, but that’s the beauty of the NHL regular season. There’s plenty of time for the Oilers to get to where they want to be, i.e. challenging for the Stanley Cup come playoff time.
Of course, no matter how talented or good you are, there still needs to be some good fortune along the way. Here are four bold predictions for the Oilers in December, starting with a particularly daring one:
1) Jack Campbell will be traded
As things stand, it’s fair to call Jack Campbell’s time in Edmonton an unmitigated disaster to date. He has done nothing to justify the decision to pay him $25 million over five seasons.
Campbell had the worst campaign of his career during his first season in Edmonton, with a .888 save percentage and 3.41 Goals Against Average (GAA). Fortunately for the Oilers, Stuart Campbell had a breakout season, which saw him become the main starter and finish second for the Calder Trophy.
There was some hope for Campbell, thanks to his play in the playoffs and then during this preseason. This proved to be a false dawn though, as he then started this season somehow looking even worse.
As much as the Oilers were floundering defensively as a whole, you could only excuse the 2022 All-Star’s play so much. Thanks to a 1-4-0 record, .873 save percentage and 4.50 GAA, he was placed on waivers and subsequently assigned to the Condors in the AHL to work on his game.
If possible, things got even worse for Campbell in Bakersfield, as he allowed a combined 13 goals and went 0-3 in his first three games. All hope seemed lost.
Since then however, the 2010 11th overall draft pick has seen some improvement in his play, winning two of his last three starts, albeit he still has an overall .894 save percentage and 3.15 GAA in six games. This has led to speculation that he will be recalled to the Oilers.
Our opinion has been that it’s too soon to bring Campbell back, that he still needs more time to work on his game — and confidence — in Bakersfield. However, we now appreciate there’s some method to the madness, i.e. putting him in the shop window to entice someone to trade for him and his albatross of a contract.
Of course it’s a risk, but it does help that the Oilers are now playing better, which can in turn help their beleaguered goaltender. As such, we predict that somehow, someway, Campbell will be traded, potentially helped by including another player on the current roster.
2) Connor McDavid will be in top 3 for points
It has undoubtedly been a challenging season so far for Connor McDavid. As the Oilers floundered out of the gate, so did their captain.
In fairness, McDavid did have eight points in the Oilers’ first five games, but it didn’t help that the team started the 2023-24 campaign with a 1-3-1 record. Then came the upper body injury which caused him to miss two games, during which the Oilers went 0-2.
However, after the five-time Art Ross Trophy winner returned for the Heritage Classic, something didn’t seem quite right. He just didn’t look like his usual self.
This led to speculation that McDavid, in his efforts to help the team, had returned too quickly from his injury. He equalled his career-worst streak of eight games without a goal, and overall had ‘only’ 16 points in 16 games.
Then came the game in Washington, D.C., where Oilers fans finally got to see the real McDavid. He notched four assists in a 5-0 win versus the Capitals, for his first game of the 2023-24 season with more than two points.
The 2015 first overall draft pick then followed this up with another four assists, and a goal to boot, in the 8-2 blowout of the Ducks. This resulted in him moving into third place in Oilers history with 39 three-plus assist games, with the two-game points spurt seeing him shoot up 100 places in the NHL scoring charts.
McDavid was subsequently named NHL First Star for the week ending Nov. 26, but he wasn’t finished yet. He added another three points in the important 5-4 shootout win against the Golden Knights, with a goal and two assists, while also notching the first Oilers goal in the shootout.
Thanks to this scoring blitz, the six-time All-Star now finds himself tied ninth in the scoring charts with 29 points, five behind third place and 10 behind top spot. He’s in a zone now, so expect him to be in the top three by the end of December.
3) Oilers will be in a playoff spot
We’ll admit it — how could we note when it’s in print on this site — that we thought the Oilers were dead and buried. That they were officially broken and had no chance of making the playoffs.
This was based on the Oilers starting the season with a 5-12-1 record through 18 games. While not as bad as in 1993-94, when they had a 3-14-1 at the same point, the writing appeared to be on the wall.
There was theoretically some hope, given the Oilers had made the playoffs in 1979-80 and 1990-91, despite respective records of 3-11-4 and 5-11-2 through 18 games. However, this was back in the days when the NHL decided that 16 of the 21 teams should qualify for the playoffs.
The Oilers just seemed to be in disarray, with horrific defensive play and the fallout from seemingly firing Jay Woodcroft too soon, almost forgetting all the good work he’d done the previous two seasons. To make matters worse, CEO Jeff Jackson’s handpicked replacement Kris Knoblauch, was on a three-game losing streak after winning his first two games as Oilers coach.
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The Oilers were sitting 10 points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference, and they weren’t even a quarter of the way through their schedule. All hope appeared lost for a team which was considered a genuine Stanley Cup contender during the preseason.
Then something happened, as if a switch was suddenly flipped on. The Oilers got their first shutout of the season, versus the Capitals, and they were off and running.
As mentioned already, the Oilers then dominated the Ducks 8-2 and followed this up with an important win versus last season’s Stanley Cup champions. Throw in the 3-1 win over the Jets in Winnipeg, and the Oilers are now on their first four-game winning streak of the 2023-24 campaign.
As a result of this, the Oilers have crept to within five points of a playoff spot at the time of posting. This team is now playing more like what was expected, so don’t be surprised to see them continue to close the gap and find themselves in a playoff spot in the coming weeks.
4) Connor Brown will justify his bonus
There was plenty of intrigue when the Oilers signed Connor Brown during the offseason. He was expected to be a key acquisition for the top six, while his previous relationship with McDavid at the Erie Otters was expected to be a positive.
Instead, Brown has done next to nothing so far in Edmonton. And by next to nothing, we really do mean next to nothing.
When the 29-year-old agreed his one-year deal with the Oilers, it came complete with an interesting incentive. While the base salary and cap hit for this season was only $775,000, he would receive a bonus of $3.225 million if he played 10 games.
However, no one could have predicted Brown would reach this milestone, without having scored a single point for the Oilers. Even despite him only playing four games in Washington, D.C. last season, before suffering a season-ending anterior cruciate ligament injury.
As a result, there was genuine concern the Toronto native still hadn’t recovered from his surgery. However, there has been at least some reason for optimism of late.
Brown has been playing better more recently, highlighted by finally scoring his first point of the season, via an assist versus the Ducks. The look of relief on his face as he celebrated ‘s Evander Kane’s goal was evident and entirely understandable.
Of course it’s going to take a lot more than one point, for Brown to justify even his base salary never mind his bonus (which will count towards next season’s cap for the Oilers). However, we predict he will indeed start to earn his way.
While never a major offensive producer, this is still the same player who is usually good for 30+ points per season. The 2012 sixth round draft pick is also going to benefit from getting top six minutes for a revitalised team, alongside superstar teammates now playing more like what they’re capable of.
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Overall, if we’re being honest, we only feel particularly confident about two of these four predictions, i.e. the middle two. However, if either of the other two bold predictions also come true, the Oilers really will be in a great position come the end of December.