The Oilers season is 20% done – A deep dive into defence and goaltending

Edmonton Oilers Jack Campbell Stuart Skinner — LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MAY 12: Jack Campbell #36 of the Edmonton Oilers comes into the game to replace Stuart Skinner #74 in the second period of Game Five of the Second Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena on May 12, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Golden Knights defeated the Oilers 4-3. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Analysis 3: The Goaltending

Here are the definitions of stats we will use in this section:

Here is an explanation of the goaltending stats I will be using in my next article: pic.twitter.com/M9dKG95rOS
— Mark 📸 (@TheLineBlender) November 20, 2023

We’ve tabulated their results as a per-game and per-60 averages, with their ranks amongst NHL goalies that have played at least as many games as Campbell (five):

The #Oilers goalies have some of the worst stats in the NHL, which is no surprise to anyone at this point in the season.

Skinner has faced a lighter workload, compared to Campbell who only won one game and hasn't played during the team's better stretches of games. pic.twitter.com/qmNp733R5N
— Mark 📸 (@TheLineBlender) November 20, 2023

Both goalies have posted awful results so far. They’re 44th and 50th in the league for Goals Saved Above Expected. If we think of xGAA as how heavy of a workload the goalie has faced, Stuart Skinner faced the lighter workload.

This is not entirely a surprise since the Oilers’ defence has been better in the last eight games compared to the first eight, and Campbell has only had one start in November, and one win all season. Skinner has done quite well recently with the exception of the stinker versus Tampa Bay, and the Oilers need him to return closer to last season’s form ASAP.

How did the goalies fare against different types of chances? We tabulated their SV% against unblocked shot attempts of Low Danger, Medium Danger, and High Danger quality:

Skinner and Campbell have particularly struggled with High Danger chances, where both are near league-worst.

At least Jack was making Low-Danger saves - but when you're league worst against Medium-Danger AND High-Danger chances, you're going to have a league-worst GAA. #Oilers pic.twitter.com/0iqIdjeICq
— Mark 📸 (@TheLineBlender) November 20, 2023

Again, both goalies were very bad across the board, but they gave up goals on high danger unblocked shot attempts at a higher rate than almost all NHL goalies. It’s safe to say they haven’t been bailing out their D-men at all this season. Campbell’s ability to save low-danger shots was effective, but not enough to salvage his league-worst performance against medium- and high-danger chances.

TL;DR – The goaltending

So, while we can say that the defence was bad but underperformed expected, the goaltending was worse. They performed terribly and were among the league’s worst goaltenders against medium- and high-danger unblocked shot attempts.

The Oilers almost certainly need to trade for a solution in net, and that solution has to be someone who can make Skinner a tandem goalie. Some will say he should be the 1B or backup until further notice.

Thanks for reading! For more data-based articles, follow me on X at @TheLineBlender and stay tuned to Oil On Whyte.