The Oilers season is 20% done – A deep dive into defence and goaltending

As the Oilers continue to be one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL this season, we break down where the blue line and goalies have been falling short.

The Oilers defense has taken a lot of heat this season – not undeservedly, and none more than offensive defenceman Evan Bouchard. Similarly, the goalies have received a lot of criticism, with fans still calling for a change, and Jack Campbell sinking in the AHL.

Read on to find out:

1.       Has the defence improved in the last eight games?

2.       How much of the failure is on the goaltending?

N.B. There is a TL;DR summarising each section if you just want to see the results.

Analysis 1: The defence over 16 games

Here are the definitions of stats which will be used in this section:

The entire team was getting PDO’d to start the season – ridiculously low on-ice SH%, terrible on-ice SV%, and therefore a low PDO that should eventually rise as the Oilers score some goals. This will only go as far as the shooting talent and injuries in the forward group allow for.

After 16 games, the defence has not totally bounced back. The only pairing that has seen an Earthly PDO is Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci, which earned credit in the first handful of games for strong performances with good analytics. They were the top pair while Mattias Ekholm was still injured.

Through the first 16 games Ceci is also the only player to have a normal 1.005 PDO and an above-50% goal differential.

If you want, you can get a quick idea of their results just by looking at the colour-graded columns for GF%, xGF%, and PDO. However, we’ve also included “For” and “Against” data for reference.

The entire team has underperformed their xGF%, significantly. All D-men having xGF% in the range of ~55% is great, but many having GF% of 42% and lower is awful. The worst of this is the Brett Kulak-Vincent Desharnais pair, followed closely by Bouchard.

In 16 games, Bouchard had the worst GA/60, yet he had the second-best xGA/60 – this discrepancy is likely due to the quality of chances he gave up in the first eight games. In actual results, Bouchard had a middling GF%, but produced the highest xGF% and a scored point-per-game: 16 points in 16 games. He has been by far the best offence producer amongst the D-men.

Moreover, the rest of the defence’s PDO values will not remain at 0.950 and below forever, and they are likely to score more goals soon. Again looking at Bouchard, he has the third-lowest PDO, indicating he is, in effect, one of those players who is most due for pucks to bounce his way:

Bouchard saw normal PDO, SH%, and SV% values the last two seasons, but suddenly has a very low SV% behind him this year, and slightly lower On-Ice SH% from his teammates, resulting in a low PDO. He’s had lapses, but the goaltending has not been average behind him.

Analysis 2: The defence over last 8 games

We will delve more into the goalie issues, after we examine the defence corps’ results in the last eight games:

Everyone except Ekholm-Bouchard saw their expected results actually get worse, although they all remain above 50%.

In the last eight games, Bouchard is first in GF% and xGF%. He is allowing the least *actual* goals against, and second-least expected goals against. This, while producing the second-most *actual* goals for, and the most expected goals for. This is what you’d expect from a top line player. Watch for this to continue in the next 20 percent of the season.

Meanwhile, Kulak-Desharnais is falling further behind by measure of GF%. Their 25% and 14.3% GF% are highly concerning, but it’s important to note it’s not all their fault. Kulak-Desharnais play predominantly with the bottom six forwards, who have scored barely any goals. Their On-Ice 1.09 and 0.57 GF/60 values are a symptom of this.

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Still, Kulak-Desharnais need to limit goals against, as they have the worst GA/60 of all regular Oilers D-men, while their xGA/60 values are passable.

In short, Ekholm-Bouchard need to keep playing at their recent level, and find ways to limit goals against. Everyone else has to step it up under the new coach… or else management has to find outside solutions.

TL;DR – The Defence Lines

In the last eight games:

1. Ceci regressed a bit to 50 GF% and 52.7 xGF%. Nurse stayed about the same.
   • Nurse-Ceci, just as they showed in their last seasons (as we’ve noted previously), is not a quality line in an NHL top four. The Oilers need to acquire an upgrade in order to become a contender.
2. Bouchard put up 50 GF% in the last eight games, which is great in comparison to his 42.3 GF% overall in games 1-16. By expected, he improved slightly to 64.71 xGF%. Ekholm’s GF% results remain the same, but his xGF% improved to near last year’s levels just like Bouchard.
   • If this trend continues, we are going to see complete dominance from Ekholm-Bouchard, just as we did last year. This is a quality pairing in an NHL top four.
3. Kulak-Desharnais have worsened in results and expected. Their GF% is worst amongst Oilers D-men, 25 GF% or less, and their expected share is barely over 50%. This is in part due to the bottom six scoring virtually no goals with them on the ice.
   • If the bottom six starts scoring but Kulak-Desharnais still lets in the most GA/60, an upgrade may be required moving forward into 2024.