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The Oilers season is 20% done – A deep dive into defence and goaltending

ByMark MacCrimmon|
Nov 15, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Seattle Kraken forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (41) deflects a shot pas Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) during the second period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 15, 2023; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Seattle Kraken forward Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (41) deflects a shot pas Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner (74) during the second period at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
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Edmonton Oilers
Nov 9, 2023; San Jose, California, USA; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) and Edmonton Oilers defenseman Cody Ceci (5) and San Jose Sharks left wing Anthony Duclair (10) battle for position in front of the net during the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

Analysis 2: The defence over last 8 games

We will delve more into the goalie issues, after we examine the defence corps’ results in the last eight games:

Everyone except Ekholm-Bouchard saw their expected results actually get worse, although they all remain above 50%.

In the last eight games, Bouchard is first in GF% and xGF%. He is allowing the least *actual* goals against, and second-least expected goals against. This, while producing the second-most *actual* goals for, and the most expected goals for. This is what you’d expect from a top line player. Watch for this to continue in the next 20 percent of the season.

Meanwhile, Kulak-Desharnais is falling further behind by measure of GF%. Their 25% and 14.3% GF% are highly concerning, but it’s important to note it’s not all their fault. Kulak-Desharnais play predominantly with the bottom six forwards, who have scored barely any goals. Their On-Ice 1.09 and 0.57 GF/60 values are a symptom of this.

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Still, Kulak-Desharnais need to limit goals against, as they have the worst GA/60 of all regular Oilers D-men, while their xGA/60 values are passable.

In short, Ekholm-Bouchard need to keep playing at their recent level, and find ways to limit goals against. Everyone else has to step it up under the new coach… or else management has to find outside solutions.

TL;DR – The Defence Lines

In the last eight games:

  1. Ceci regressed a bit to 50 GF% and 52.7 xGF%. Nurse stayed about the same.
    • Nurse-Ceci, just as they showed in their last seasons (as we’ve noted previously), is not a quality line in an NHL top four. The Oilers need to acquire an upgrade in order to become a contender.
  2. Bouchard put up 50 GF% in the last eight games, which is great in comparison to his 42.3 GF% overall in games 1-16. By expected, he improved slightly to 64.71 xGF%. Ekholm’s GF% results remain the same, but his xGF% improved to near last year’s levels just like Bouchard.
    • If this trend continues, we are going to see complete dominance from Ekholm-Bouchard, just as we did last year. This is a quality pairing in an NHL top four.
  3. Kulak-Desharnais have worsened in results and expected. Their GF% is worst amongst Oilers D-men, 25 GF% or less, and their expected share is barely over 50%. This is in part due to the bottom six scoring virtually no goals with them on the ice.
    • If the bottom six starts scoring but Kulak-Desharnais still lets in the most GA/60, an upgrade may be required moving forward into 2024.
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