Ken Holland’s last-ever draft pick for Oilers may be one of his best

The thinking is this is Ken Holland’s last season as Oilers General Manager, with his likely final ever draft pick projecting as an excellent parting gift.

As it turns out, Oilers general manager Ken Holland has potentially made one of his highest value draft picks in his tenure with the draft pick that may turn out to be his last. More specifically, round seven, 216th overall in 2023.

Read on to learn about Matt Copponi’s development and why the Oilers would also be smart to look at signing an undrafted teammate, for AHL Bakersfield.

Most Oilers fans probably have never heard of Copponi, but he is making a name for himself in the NCAA’s Hockey East league after being drafted as a double-overager in 2023. This, after missing his entire draft season as a result of COVID restrictions, and going undrafted in 2022.

There was little reason to draft Copponi as an 18-year-old who produced few points in freshman college hockey. However, he took a big step forward in production as a 19-year-old, and appears to have taken another step forward this year at age 20.

Copponi was drafted by the Oilers in 2023, and has an NHLe (a basic/classic NHL equivalency) of 38.6 points in this season so far. This ranks him as one of the best-improving young prospects in the organisation’s relatively stark pipeline.

This late-round “project prospect” has made highlight plays this year that provide hope his development will continue as he approaches the pro years of his career. Here is one play where he got away on a breakout with a silky deke and finish:

Compared to successful bottom six NHLers that played in Hockey East, Copponi’s age 19 and 20 seasons have put him on the map as a rising prospect. The following plot shows his NHLe versus that of notable players who came out of Hockey East, and squares mark data points where the player moved up a league – from junior, to college, to pro, and NHL:

Copponi at age 19 jumped up to the middle of this pack of players by measure of NHLe. Such players include Jack McBain, Warren Foegele, Conor Sheary, and Matt Nieto. This year so far, Copponi is producing better than those players did at the same age. If he manages not to fall far off as the season progresses, then he will gain serious traction as a prospect to watch and a potential bottom six player who could score 30-35 points per season.

Copponi could play his next season in H-East again, or he could move up to the AHL. By age 22 he should definitely be in the AHL, with the NHL not too far off. His comparables all made the NHL by age 22-23, which indicates where his development needs to be headed if he is going to have an NHL future.

The Edmonton Journal compiled a nice arrangement of Copponi’s draft profiles. The theme is captured by the following description from Dave Gregory of the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau:

Responsible Player that is very unselfish. Versatile. Has good motor. Finishes hits. Strong skater. Dave Gregory, NHL Central Scouting Bureau

It will be interesting to watch as Copponi continues to develop.

Zach Bookman

Those following Copponi may have noticed another player on his team in Merrimack College who also has roots in Alberta. Undrafted player Zach Bookman is a late bloomer the Edmonton Oilers’ scouts should be taking notes on this season:

At age 21 he is playing just his second season in the NCAA, whereas most talented players coming out of leagues such as the NCAA find themselves drafted at age 18 and off to the NCAA the following year for their age 19 season.

Still, Bookman has shown the kind of production so far this season that you would want from a late bloomer, proving you can take it to the next level despite showing up a year later than most who have draft pedigree:

The encouraging thing about Bookman is how his production explodes in his second season in each league he plays in, which indicates a potential to develop into a quality player as he moves up each level in development. He might be a sleeper undrafted prospect, with a 41.9 NHLe so far this season.

Bookman’s production is shown in the second tweet below:

Note that fellow Oiler prospect, forward Carter Savoie, scored 99 points in the AJHL as a 17-18 year old. Bookman doing so as a defenceman at age 19 is still a noticeable feat.

Taking a look at Bookman’s NHLe versus successful ex-AJHL defencemen, his development indicates he could be a strong “project prospect” and college signing for an Oilers organisation that has seen little success in that area since the signing of Matt Benning under Peter Chiarelli in 2016.

The plot in the second tweet below compares Bookman’s NHLe production versus notable ex-AJHL players who made the NHL. Seasons where a player moved into a new league are marked with a square plot point:

Bookman reached the AJHL and college hockey a year later than most of these ex-AJHL players, but his NHLe has trended well into the middle of a pack of a list of players that includes Benning, Ian Mitchell, Colton Parayko and Carson Soucy. This year so far, he is producing very well, and in the neighbourhood of how Colton Parayko did as a 22-year-old.

Most of these players made it to pro hockey (AHL and then NHL) at around age 22 to 23, and many experienced a drop in production when taking their first pro step. Some players such as Soucy and Nick Blankenburg didn’t even make the NHL until age 25. The fact that Bookman is keeping pace with these players in his development is encouraging, and he may be a quality pro player in the coming years.

The Oilers are going to have to pick players like Bookman out of the woodwork to keep their pro prospect pipeline flowing in their Stanley Cup contending era: