Stanley Cup Obstacles For The Edmonton Oilers

This is a trophy that could very easily belong to the Oilers at the end of this season. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but you have to think the Oilers are very strong candidates. They’re in a win-now mode in their development. They’ve certainly learned lessons from their losing – in the last four seasons, they’ve lost once in the play-in series, once in the first round, once in the second round, and once in the third round.

Everyone on the Oilers is gearing up for a “Cup or bust” mentality, as the Deutschland Dangler put it.

But it’s not a sure thing by any means. Other teams are in win-now mode as well and will try to knock the Oilers off their pedestal.

Let’s look at who stands in the Oilers way of the Cup.

1. Vegas Golden Knights

There’s only one team in the division capable of knocking the Oilers off their quest to get out of the division on their way to the Cup, and that’s the GKs.

Fortunately, they will be a bit more mortal next season – I already wrote a fair amount about them here so I won’t be writing too much more about them.

I see three reasons that the Knights are eminently beatable this year – 1) Cup hangover. It’s very hard to repeat as Cup champions in large part because playoff hockey gives the players’ bodies a big beating, so even when they do their offseason workouts it’s not uncommon for them to come back next season less energized and ready, needing a longer offseason of hitting the reset button before they can play up their their best once more.

2) The loss of Reilly Smith may affect the Knights more than it looks on paper. Ivan Barbashev is his replacement, and although he’s capable he’s not quite as good defensively as Smith. That still might come back to haunt them. 3) The goaltending tandem. Don’t get me wrong, both Hill and Thompson had strong seasons last year but both have to prove they can do it again in their careers. Hill was a career backup until last season, and Thompson was a rookie last season who has to prove he’s not the next flash in the pan like ex-Washington Capital Jim Carey.

One or both of these players could easily fall on their faces next season until they play the games and prove otherwise. If the worst case scenario happens the Knights are in trouble.

That being said, the Knights are the cup champions until the last game of next season so you can never truly count them out.

If the Oilers disappoint and do not even get out of the division this season, it will be because of the Knights.

Sorry LA, the Kings are playoff contenders but not Cup contenders to me. They won’t be until they can get over the hump and get less questionable goalies.

A lot of dominoes are falling the right way for Dallas. Not only have perennial underachievers Tyler Seguin (pictured) and Jamie Benn found their scoring touches again, but a new star has emerged in Dallas in the form of Jason Robertson – who in his second full season put up 79 points in 74 games and then followed that up last season with his second consecutive 40 goal season and 109 points.

Also, he was an eye-popping +66 last season. How is a hockey player even that good defensively? I have no idea. Then there’s 39-year-old Joe Pavelski, who shows no signs of slowing down even at his age, which is practically 55 for an NHL player’s career (sort of like dog years). Somehow he put up 20+ goals for the third straight season and 77 points, with another eye-popping +42. Roope Hintz put up 30+ goals for the second straight year last season.

Evgeni Dadonov, who will likely crack the 500-game mark this season, is a useful veteran acquired at the trade deadline by Dallas last season who put up 15 points in 23 games after coming over from the rebuilding Habs to the contenders in Dallas. I fully expect him to crack the 20-goal mark once again in a full season with this top six.

Even the third line is stacked with the aforementioned Seguin centering Mason Marchment, a young player who hasn’t cracked the 200-game mark yet but already showing himself to be a quality veteran winger, and newcomer Matt Duchene, recently bought out by the Nashville Predators and ready to rebound in a big way. Even the fourth line is a scoring force, with Ty Dellandrea and Radek Faksa both putting up 20+ points last season, solid production for fourth-liners. Newcomer Craig Smith, who only played 22 games last year, should fit in well on this line as he’s a veteran of 853 NHL games.

And then there’s the D corps (giggity). Not as flashy as their forwards but still a great group. Miro Heiskanen, who finished seventh amongst d-men in the NHL in scoring last season with 73 points, anchors the corps. His partner is veteran Ryan Suter, who was good for 25 points last season and 32 the season before, also staying at or just past the 0 point in +/-. The second pairing still needs a little seasoning, but Jani Hakanpaa looks poised to hit 20 points after 16 the season before and 12 the season before that. Stay-at-home guy Thomas Harley is his partner, who rocketed up to +5 last season from -4 the season before. This is arguably the Achilles heel of the team this season.

Even the bottom-pairing guys are capable of contributing – Esa Lindell had 24 points last season while Nils Lundkvist had 16.

They’re good to go between the pipes too. Even though he’s only at 139 games Jake Oettinger looks right on the cusp of NHL stardom, putting up a .919 sv% and 2.37 GAA last season – and his stats have improved every year he’s been in the league. One of the few starter-caliber goalies in the NHL. Backing him up is Scott Wedgewood, a career backup who put up numbers almost as good as Oettinger – .915 and 2.72. That’s a great tandem.

With these pieces in place, it’s no wonder Dallas went to the conference finals last season and could be again as this is a pretty formidable team. If the Oilers run into them on their path it would be a good battle.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned as an Oilers fan and to a lesser extent an NHL fan, it’s to never count out the Lightning until their core players are traded and they start a rebuild.

They may have lost quite a bit of their depth due to cap issues, but they’re still a very good team – I’d say still a cup contender. They may have lost out last season to TO in the playoffs in the first round, but that will mean nothing in the grand scheme of things. That just gave them some breathing room to rest and relax after three straight deep playoff runs resulting in three straight appearances in the Cup finals, winning two of them.

The strength of their team starts on what I would say is honestly probably the best first line in the NHL – Stamkos-Point-Kucherov. That’s 113, 95, and 84-point players (not necessarily in that order). Two 30-goal scorers and a 50-goal scorer. Total scoring? Fourth, 14th, and 23rd in the league.

With the departure of Alex Killorn – who signed as a free agent with the Ducks – seemingly taking some punch out of their second line – Brandon Hagel was re-upped with a $5,000,000 raise for the next seven seasons after this one. Why? Hagel put up almost identical stats to Killorn and they couldn’t afford to keep both, so they signed Hagel and let Killorn walk. In their defence, Hagel did blow the doors off last season going 30-34-64 with a +23 to boot, all of which are career highs for him. TB is betting that won’t be the last time he puts up those kinds of numbers and hoping he can do it again – otherwise they have a boat anchor contract that will be near impossible to get rid of.

Centring Hagel is the less heralded scorer Anthony Cirelli, who hopefully gets a Hagel bump in his numbers as he’s never even cracked the 20-goal or 50-point marks in his career – sort of like an early Sam Gagner. On the other wing, they added reclamation project Conor Sheary, a player who was a great complimentary winger who made the NHL just to win two straight cups with the Penguins only to drop off after that. With the Lightning’s cap situation, they were forced to go bargain basement shopping. $6 million spread out over the next three seasons, we’ll see if it works out.

The third line is centred by sniper Nick Paul, who set career highs with 17-15-32 last season for the Lightning. On his wings is the well-traveled Michael Eyssimont, who started last season with the Jets, then went to the Sharks, and finished up the season with the Lightning. He put up five goals and 15 points between the three organizations last season. Trade deadline pickup from last year Tanner Jeannot rounds out the line – between TB and Nashville he went 6-12-18 last season. Outside of Paul, certainly, a third line that has less bite than years past for TB.

The fourth line has been completely turned over, so Logan Brown, Luke Glendening, and Tyler Motte are all newcomers to the team this year. None of these players are anything more than average fourth-liners.

Like the Rangers, the Lightning boasts a great 1-2 punch at the top of their D corps with Mikhail Sergachev, who put up career-bests with 54 assists and 64 points, with the 10 goals tying a career-high, and Victor Hedman, who was right behind him in team scoring with 9-40-49 last season. Those are the guys who anchor the left side on the first two pairings. Playing with Hedman will be Nick Perbix, a second-year NHLer who put up 5-15-20 and +11 in his rookie season, which definitely looks like a stay-at-home guy. Ditto for Sergachev’s partner Erik Cernak – 2-14-16 and +8 last season.

As you would expect with their cap situation, the bottom pairing is unimpressive with two blueliners plucked from the bargain bin – Zach Bogosian and Calvin De Haan. Neither player put up numbers of any consequence for TB last season.

Although he’s cooled off the last few seasons, I still consider Andrei Vasilevskiy a top 2-3 goalie in the league. Certainly starter caliber, he put up a .915 sv% and 2.65 GAA. Perhaps like the rest of the team with a longer offseason and more time for the bumps and bruises to heal, he’ll rebound a bit more next season. Backing him will be – yup, you guessed it, a player plucked off the bargain bin in Jonas Johansson. He’s only got 35 games of NHL experience with three different teams, most recently playing three games for the Avs last season – and although he did very well in those three games – .932 and stingy 2.10 respectively – it is, after all, only three games so picking this guy as Vasilevskiy’s backup is a bit strange. He may only be making the NHL minimum, but if Vasilevskiy ever goes down with injury boy are the Lightning in trouble.

So as you can see, they’ve lost some bite but I still won’t count them out. If the Oilers were to beat them it would be like a passing of the torch from one time period to the next in the NHL.

We all remember THAT guy, don’t we? Mr. Turtle himself. Good thing he’s out of the division now so we don’t have to play him as much.

The Panthers attack is led by what I would say is probably one of the most underrated players in the NHL, Alexander Barkov. 23-55-78 in 68 games last season. His wingers are Sam Reinhart, a sniper the Buffalo Sabres gave up on who has gone on to be two for two in 30 goal seasons since he became a Panther, although the -12 he had last season you hope is an aberration and not a new normal. Up against the cap, on the right side, the Panthers went shopping for bargains and signed Evan Rodrigues at $3 million a season for three seasons. He played for Colorado last season and has yet to crack the 20-goal mark or even the 40-point mark. Could he become the next Sam Reinhart and see his stats get a bump on this team? I’m sure the Panthers are counting on it.

On the second line, we have center Sam Bennett, rescued from the gongshow of the Flames, then scored 28 goals two seasons ago and regressed to 16 last season. I bet the Panthers hope he rebounds this upcoming season. On the right side, we have Tkachuk, who put up 109 points this season and finished seventh in league scoring. Can he do it again? That’s the million-dollar question but he’s a good bet to as he finished almost a full % point below his career shooting %. On the other side, we have Carter Verhaege, who set new career highs with 42 goals and 73 points last season. Not a lot of sexy names but not a bad top six overall.

The third line could probably use an infusion of talent on the right side, but they’re off to a good start with Anton Lundell at center (12 goals, 33 points) and Eetu Luostarinen (17 goals, 43 points). Gregori Denisenko had three assists in 18 games there. Hopefully for them that increases this year. The fourth line looks decent, with newcomer Steven Lorentz at center (19 points in San Jose last year), Ryan Lomberg at one wing (12 goals, 20 points) and Nick Cousins at the other (nine goals, 27 points).

At D, it’s a bit of a double-edged sword as Aaron Ekblad is technically there as the guy who stirs the drink but he’s out with injury for the entirety of the 2023-24 season. I’m starting to think his bones and muscles are just baking powder and rolled-up socks he’s injured so much.

That’s a huge blow to the top of the lineup but they still have Gustav Forsling on the left side who put up 41 points for the Panthers last season. The only other incumbent on D is Josh Mahura, who put up 16 points and a +17 last season, both career highs. This was his first season as a regular in the lineup so that bodes well for him. All the other spots have been turned over, though. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, fresh off the Canucks biting the bullet and buying him out, was signed to a modest cap hit to replace Ekblad in the lineup next season. Will he be an adequate replacement? For a healthy Ekblad probably not but he’ll probably be good for 20 or 30 points if recent performance is any indication. That’s something, anyway.

Rounding out the rest of the corps is stay-at-home guy Dmitry Kulikov, at one time a deadline pickup of the Oilers, ditto for Mike Reilly, and ditto again for Niko Mikkola.

Perhaps the least impressive defensive corps on the list of teams in terms of puck-moving, especially without Ekblad in the lineup.

Then there’s goal, where the Panthers have a Jekyll and Hyde type of starter in Sergei Bobrovsky, who had a regular season to forget with a .901 sv% and even that was buoyed by a strong second half of the season after he struggled in the first half. Come to the playoffs, however, he took the team on his back and was probably the #1 reason why they made it to the finals, as he finished with a .915 sv% and a 2.78 GAA – safe to say that’s probably the best uptick in goalie stats amongst any goalie between the regular season and playoffs.

Backing up Bobrovsky is Anthony Stolarz, who has only 81 NHL games played to his name and thus is very much an unproven guy. The Panthers better hope that a) Bobrovsky stays healthy and b) that he plays like he did in the playoffs all year long. Otherwise, they will be in big trouble.

Do I think the Panthers make it back to the Cup finals? Probably not. Give them credit for beating Boston and embarrassing them after they had a historically good regular season, but their next two opponents in the Maple Laffs and Carolina – whose ceiling seems to be the third round and that’s it – were very easy to beat. Once they encountered a better team again in Vegas, they couldn’t match up and only won a single game in the Finals.

I doubt they’ll be that lucky this time around. But, you never know. If last playoff’s Bobrovsky shows up he can single-handedly win them games when it matters. The one thing that can kill the Oilers is a strong goalie and Bob could be that guy.

Colorado Avalanche

Normally the Avs would be higher up on the list, but they’ve got a huge problem for next season – one of their core players, Gabriel Landeskog, is out for the season this year. Think about how much it would crater the Oilers if McDavid or Draisaitl were gone for the season – same thing.

To fill in for him they signed……Jonathan Drouin. I get that he was cheap, but he’s a reclamation project and a poor substitute at best. I expect because of this the Avs will have trouble scoring goals this season which will push them down the standings and maybe even out of a playoff spot.

Without Landeskog, IMO the Avs are just short of having all the horses to compete next season. Look for them to move back into the contender’s list when Landeskog comes back.

Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina has a great team on paper.  They’ve made some great moves in the last couple of years, especially on defence.  Dmitry Orlov, Brent Burns, and Tony Deangelo will all have upped the ante on puck moving.

They also have some great firepower up front with Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Taravainen, and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. They even have a three-headed monster at goalie right now which hopefully training camp resolves for them.  But they just can’t seem to get over the hump and make it to the Finals. Including last season, Carolina will have made it to the third round many a time over the past few seasons. But they can never get past the Conference Finals. I just don’t know what it is with this team, but the third round seems to be their ceiling.

Until they prove otherwise. Will this be the year they get over the hump? Maybe, maybe not. If I were a betting man I’d say probably not.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils within the last couple of seasons have emerged from a rebuild and some are whispering that they’re already at the Cup contender phase. I tend to think it might be a little premature, but on paper, they definitely look like a deadly team. Rescuing Timo Meier from San Jose and Tyler Toffoli from Calgary IMO was a stroke of genius for GM Tom Fitzgerald. They drafted both of their top six centermen Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier and both are looking pretty good right about now.

Erik Haula and Ondrej Palat are definitely going to anchor the bottom six for them. Dougie Hamilton and John Marino are the cornerstones of their blueline.

Plucking Vitek Vanacek from Washington was a great move as all of his stats got better after the move. Akira Schmid had a rough start to his career as he put up terrible numbers in his first six NHL games in his rookie season but performed much better in his second call-up last season, to the point where it looks like now they’re ready to keep him in the NHL full time.

They upset the Rangers in the first round last season, which was a good first step. But IMO this team still has more losing to do for the learning experience. I would put them right around the 2020 Oilers period – playoff contenders but not cup contenders yet. However, could they get to that point next season? Perhaps.

The Oilers have signed three players to PTOs – Brandon Sutter, Brent Sutter’s son who has been out of the NHL the past two seasons recovering from long-term Covid, two-time ex Oilers forward Sam Gagner, and defensive specialist Adam Erne, who most recently played for Detroit for the last four seasons.

Many are excited about being “gaga for Gagner” as they love the retro feels but it’s important to remember that Gagner is not the same player he once was at 34 – and even in his prime he wasn’t exactly a speed demon.

We recently learned that Gagner won’t be healthy enough to play any preseason games, only practice with the team due to his healing from the double hip surgery he had being longer than anticipated. The Oilers may sign him to a two-way contract, send him down to Bakersfield, and call him up as his health improves and he’s needed.

Sutter and Erne are largely unknown commodities at this point and things could go either way for them.

Other Edmonton Oilers related news

• It looks like old Oilers Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli will be returning to Ottawa where his management career started. He has close ties to new Sens majority owner Michael Andlauer, but don’t count on him becoming Sens GM anytime soon as Pierre Dorion has this team on the upswing and on the cusp of emerging from a rebuild. You’d have to think long and hard about unjustly firing a guy like that – especially when you have a guy whose most recent NHL job was as checkered as Chiarelli’s was.
• Although Brown’s health is miles better than Gagner’s, it appears Connor Brown will not be playing consecutive games in the preseason as a precaution against the ACL surgery he had in Washington last season.
• In the past, for cap reasons, I’ve written about how it might be time for the Oilers to turn the bottom pairing left D spot over to Philip Broberg full-time, but there are rumblings now that Broberg isn’t developing as quickly as the Oilers want him to which is resulting in rumblings that the Oilers will be trading Broberg rather than Brett Kulak, even though Kulak would net the Oilers much more cap space if only one of those players can be Oilers this upcoming season. IMO this would be giving up on a good young player too soon, but ultimately at some point push comes to shove and you have to do what’s best for the team. Number games get played all the time in the NHL and one player has to win and one player has to lose. I sincerely hope it doesn’t come to that in terms of Broberg, but I would certainly understand and not begrudge Ken Holland for pulling the trigger on a trade for the player.

It appears as if the Montreal Canadiens have used the two warm bodies they got back in the Erik Karlsson trade as nothing more than trade bait as they traded Jeff Petry to Detroit mere days after acquiring him and now they’ve done the same with the other warm body, goalie Casey Desmith.

Montreal actually flipped DeSmith to Vancouver in exchange for bottom-six forward Tanner Pearson and a 2025 third-round pick.

Montreal will be taking on cap space with the trade but they have LTIR cap space in abundance as even after assuming the additional $1.4 million in cap space that Pearson will bring to the Habs they still have over $4 million in LTIR cap space thanks to Carey Price’s humongous $10.5 million cap hit going on LTIR for at least one more season, and maybe for good depending on how his health holds up in the near future.

Montreal appears to have a cheaper option they like better to platoon with Jake Allen, while the Canucks have a starter quality guy in Thatcher Demko and could definitely use a veteran option like DeSmith to spell him off, as they would’ve been in trouble in case of an injury to Demko otherwise.

Not to mention the Canucks BADLY needed the $1.4 million in cap space this trade saved them as Tanner Pearson I would argue is overpaid for a bottom-six forward. This means that with the LTIR cap space that is available to them (Tucker Poolman is the guy on LTIR for them right now) that instead of being over their LTIR threshold as well as the cap, now the Canucks have $503,333 in LTIR cap space which means they are now cap compliant.

Personally, I think this is a good trade for both teams. Montreal gets a veteran presence for their bottom-six forward group, even if he is overpaid (I believe he was a top-six forward in Vancouver at one point in time), and a third-round pick from the Canucks (which explains why they didn’t retain salary in the trade) while the Canucks fill a hole on their roster and save cap space in the process.