Colton Parayko to the Oilers?

There’s no question that Parayko is a great player but he comes with risk.

First of all, his -19 last season it’s worth asking whether that is a new normal or an aberration. Putting conditions on the main draft pick that goes to the Blues helps to mitigate that risk, but it’s a risk nonetheless.

Probably the biggest reason to give this trade pause though is due to the length of his contract. Parayko just turned 30 a couple of weeks ago and he has been a top-pairing blueliner for the Blues for some time. It’s worth wondering how many hard miles he has on his body and whether his contract will age well in the coming years. He’s also signed for the next seven seasons at his current rate of $6.5 million a season ($6 million if St. Louis agrees to retain that 500K of salary).

That means he’ll be 37 by the time the contract ends, and considering how many years he’s been playing as a top pairing guy it’s worth being a little nervous about taking on that contract.

And there’s thinking about the guys you’re giving up. Ceci might not be the same puck mover but he has proven that with this roster playing at its best, he can put up at least a comparable amount of points to Parayko – and he does it at half the cap hit. That’s not nothing.

There’s also the question of chemistry and jumping into the unknown. We know Ceci can play with Nurse. We know he can handle the minutes asked of him. We don’t know if Parayko can genuinely play with Nurse – and major roster moves don’t always work out. If it doesn’t work out, you’ve given up a known commodity plus a solid depth d-man in exchange for an underachieving player with a much larger cap hit whose contract then becomes a boat anchor on the roster – almost as much as Oliver Ekman-Larsson is to Vancouver.

That’s a lot of risk.

It’s also worth noting that Ceci is only signed for another two seasons after this one, so not only does he have a much lower cap hit but his contract is up a lot sooner.

Then there’s also the state of the franchise in general. This is a team that’s widely acknowledged as a Stanley Cup contender, which means the top of the roster is one that at best we know works and at least is competitive.

Is it worth it to make this big a move to a roster that might not actually need it? I don’t know the answer to that, but it’s certainly something to think about. If we were the Ottawa Senators prior to the trade deadline and Parayko would help us get to the playoffs and we had the cap space to take him on, that’s one thing, but when you’re the Oilers who have the two best players in the world taking up 25% of your cap, you have to watch every penny of cap space you spend.

Not to mention Parayko would impede the process of young prospect dmen being able to make the roster.

Should Ken Holland do it?  

I honestly don’t know the answer to that question. Parayko brings a lot of good things to the table but I don’t know if he’s worth the risk. On the other hand, the Oilers are in win-now mode and so right now the future is secondary to the present.

I’m going to say maybe Ken Holland should do this. St. Louis is certainly not shy about sending out their veterans and I have to think that veterans from their bygone era like Parayko might be getting a little antsy to play on a winner – not to mention Parayko is bound to be excited going to his hometown team.

I’d say Holland should do his usual due diligence on the player, talk to his people, and see what they say, and if everything checks out this might be the last piece of the puzzle we need on D.