Oilers are peaking at the right time

I don’t know about you, but I’m liking the way the Oilers have been playing as of late. Right now they’re the hottest team in the Pacific division with an 8-1-1 record in their last 10. The Oilers have seven games left in the season so 14 points are still up for grabs.

Even more impressive are two other important facts:

1) They’re achieving statement wins over critical opponents

Timing is everything in the NHL, especially team efforts at the end of the season. You want to head into the playoffs playing your best hockey, and although the Oilers are not necessarily there yet they’re very close.

This includes critical wins over teams they’re trying to catch in the standings.

The Oilers are on a run right now, and they couldn’t have picked a better time to do it. They won a critical game over the Seattle Kraken on March 18 to increase their cushion to three points over them and retain third place in the division. Had the Oilers lost that game they’d have slid back into the first wildcard spot and lost third place in the division to the Kraken.

The Kraken have since imploded a bit, only going a tepid 4-4-2 in their last 10, and this in combination with the Oilers winning streak has effectively put the Kraken in the rearview mirror as they’re not seven points on top of them. The Kraken are not mathematically eliminated from third place but would need to win at least four games and the Oilers lose at least four games to regain third place in the division. Considering the momentum both teams have right now, I wouldn’t count on that if I was Seattle.

Then yesterday (March 28 at the time of this writing), the Oilers came through with another statement win over Vegas, 7-4, which put them but a single point under LA for second place in the division and home-ice advantage in the playoffs, and only three points behind Vegas for first place in the division. Without that win, Vegas’s lead would’ve increased to seven points thus putting the division lead largely out of reach since they’re doing almost as well as the Oilers have been as of late.

They’ll have another statement game tomorrow against LA where they can snatch second place in the division if they win – but if they can handle Seattle and Vegas I have no doubt they can handle LA too.

2) The Edmonton Oilers can beat opponents in different ways

The same team that chased Jonathan Quick from the nets in Vegas with six goals scored (seven in total) has also locked down a win by holding the Boston Bruins down to only two goals – and that’s a team with almost as much firepower in their lineup as the Oilers do. Boston’s only had 12 losses all season, and it’s very satisfying to know the Oilers beat them in their own barn.

They have the defensive acumen to beat teams by locking things down, or they can beat teams by outscoring their mistakes. They also have the size to beat opponents by outhitting them as well.

This is a skill that will come in handy in the playoffs.

Several players are leading to the team’s recent run of success. The McDrai duo is doing their usual bang-up job, they’ve grabbed a lot of headlines by doing their thing and being 1-2 in league scoring and obviously on the team as well.

This is fantastic, but as past seasons have shown two players can’t will the team to success. The bigger story is how other players are chipping in as cavalry to help out the McDrai duo.

Let’s start with the man in the picture, The Nuge. He’s in the midst of a career year in goals, assists, and points, going 35-61-96 so far this season and playing full-time in the top six ever since Ken Holland traded for Nick Bjugstad. Those are all career highs for him, and he seems destined for the first 100-point season of his career with seven games left in the season.

That five-point game he had against Vegas certainly didn’t hurt that cause. Of course, he’s also riding a 19.1% shooting %, almost 7% above his career average, so don’t expect him to duplicate that next season, but for now, we can certainly enjoy the ride.

Zach Hyman has also followed suit, setting career highs in goals, assists, and points, going 33-45-78 in 72 games this season. This is the first time he’s cracked the 30-goal mark in his career, and also the first time he’s putting up a point per game plus. The best part of Hyman’s success is it might be a lasting success, because his shooting % is 12.9%, only 0.5% above his career average. His secret to success is simply shooting more as he already has 255 shots on the season, with more time left in the season.

Kailer Yamamoto and Evander Kane have both struggled with injuries this season, but both appear to be getting healthier and back up to speed. Kane has 14 goals and 25 points in 34 games this season, and with seven games left in the season 20 goals is still within reach for him – I wouldn’t count him out as he certainly has the talent to get there. Kane’s -9 – one of three minus players on the team – I’m sure we can chalk up to recovering from two major injuries as he was +25 for this team just last year. I have a feeling he didn’t just suddenly forget how to play defence – no concrete proof, but just a feeling.  🙂

Yamo, meanwhile, has 10 goals on the season and it’s probably asking a bit much for him to crack 20 goals at this point, but it appears between injury recovery and jettisoning the snakebitten nature of his play from earlier on in the season, he’s coming on at the right time. He’s currently on a three-game points streak and has currently put up 5-5-10 in the month of March, by far his most productive month boxcars-wise. Let’s hope Yamo can build on the 2-5-7 that he put up in 14 games in the playoffs for us last year. Also, a sign the not quite in his prime 24-year-old is taking a step forward in his career – he’s rebounded from a -1 last season to a +10 so far this season.

This is a top six that’s looking healthy and very good going into the playoffs – buoyed by the fact that Jesse Puljujarvi is no longer bringing it down.

Now you know why the Oilers are leading the league in Goals For.

A key ingredient for the Oilers this season, however – one which has been incrementally getting better over the last few seasons – is the depth scoring has markedly improved from seasons past. Outside of those top six forwards that I’ve mentioned, Darnell Nurse, Warren Foegele, Ryan Mcleod, Klim Kostin, and Derek Ryan all have 10+ goals on the season. Mattias Janmark is also hot on their heels with eight on the season and Evan Bouchard could get there as well as he has six goals with seven games remaining. If you include the boxcars from their old teams, Nick Bjugstad has reached that mark as well and Mattias Ekholm is close with eight goals on the season.

That’s five out of six bottom six forwards – very stellar.

Both of our newcomers to the roster – Nick Bjugstad and Mattias Ekholm – have been vital to the success of the club.

Bjugstad has put up 3-2-5 in 12 games since coming here along with a great +3. Not only did this allow the Oilers to play Nuge in the top six full time thus allowing the firepower to go nuclear, but to push Ryan Mcleod to the fourth line and use his talents to drive the bus there and produce more offence from the fourth line.

Bjugstad’s presence has only become more important since Ryan Mcleod has become injured.

Mattias Ekholm, meanwhile, has come as advertised and more. In 14 games with the Oilers so far, Ekholm has put up 3-6-9 and a fantastic +14. I’d love to see what Ekholm can do in a full season in an Oilers uniform next season – what we’re seeing so far has been stellar. I knew he’d be able to show us more offence than he could in Nashville as he’s on a better team in Edmonton.

As expected, Ekholm has played a big role on the PK as well, being a regular on the second unit and playing 2:05 per game, fourth on the team.

Bjugstad is also a regular on the first unit PK, spending 1:37 on the PK, ninth on the team. Interestingly enough, both Bjugstad and Ekholm are regulars on the second unit PP as well, something I wasn’t expecting to see in my research. Both are outside the top 10 in ice time per game, though, 21 and 33 seconds per game respectively.

For the record, the PK is improving as the season goes along, as it’s sitting 22nd in the league right now, better than the 24th and lower than it was earlier on in the season.

He’s also helped Evan Bouchard immensely, as Bouchard has been held pointless in only three games since he was paired with Ekholm and expected to take over for Tyson Barrie.

To put that in perspective, Bouchard only had points in a whopping four games COMBINED in the months of January and February.

Neither Bjugstad nor Ekholm are very physical as they’re outside the top 10 on the team in both hits and blocked shots.

The PP has lost some jam since Tyson Barrie was traded, but the difference is a lot more negligible than I thought it would be – it was 33%+ with Barrie and is now 32.7% without him. Unsurprisingly, this still leads the league which is what’s more important.

Looks like the chance that Holland took in trading away Barrie and elevating Bouchard is working, which is good news for everyone.

Tyson Barrie is doing quite well in Nashville. He was actually on their top pairing for a while but has since moved back down to the second pairing. He’s put up the same boxcars as Ekholm has here, 3-6-9, except in 15 games instead of 14.

As you would expect, Barrie QBs the PP on the first unit for Nashville and is seventh on the team with 2:21 per game. Interestingly, though, Nashville’s PP is rather anemic at 17.4%, good enough for 27th in the league, and Barrie so far has a whopping one assist on the PP.

I guess it makes a difference when you’re feeding the puck to Cody Glass and Luke Evangelista as opposed to Connor Mcdavid and Leon Draisaitl.  🙂

The Bison King, meanwhile, has not a sniff in eight games in Carolina and is starting to draw some fire because of it. He’s played up and down the lineup in Carolina since the trade, in part to help cover off for injuries and in part to see if the change in scenery has paid dividends for him yet.

The answer so far appears to be no. He’s struggling just as badly as he has here in Edmonton. Don’t buy the BS he shovelled when he told Sebastian Aho that Edmonton “ruined”  him. That’s a player who didn’t take responsibility for his own immaturity and bad behaviour while an Oiler.

Michael Kesselring, the right shot D that was the prospect included in the Nick Bjugstad trade, appears to have benefited from being included in the trade, as the Coyotes – whose lineup isn’t as set in stone as the Oilers is – called him up for a proverbial cup of coffee to see how he would do in the big leagues. This meant he was playing against the Oilers when the Coyotes got beaten in OT.

In his defence, though, their regular guy was injured at the time so injury fill-in was also the name of the game right now.

Good for him, though. With the Oilers he was buried behind Cody Ceci, Evan Bouchard, Brett Kulak, and Vincent Desharnais, so he was unlikely to get time up here. He’s no longer on the active roster so I’m assuming the Coyotes have sent him back down to their farm team in Tucson. He played eight games for the Coyotes and produced a single assist and a -3 during that time – which was actually on their top pairing, a ballsy thing to do with a player on his first call-up.

He’s on their radar for a roster spot in two or three seasons, though, count on it.