The Edmonton Oilers Plan For The Trade Deadline
By Phil Gretzky
Just before the Philly game on Thursday, Oilers GM Ken Holland joined the Got Yer Back podcast to talk about the trade deadline. Just before the Philly game on Thursday, Oilers GM Ken Holland joined the Got Yer Back podcast to talk about the trade deadline.
As you would expect, he didn’t get too specific but did reveal his plans in a very general way. The players are expecting much of the same. As you would expect, he didn’t get too specific but did reveal his plans in a very general way. The players are expecting much of the same.
1. He doesn’t know yet whether he’s going to make a big or small move
He confirmed he has talked to a number of teams about a number of players but doesn’t know how many of those talks are going to amount to anything yet. Personally, I’m on board with that – I’d rather Holland make no move at all than one that will hurt the team either now or in the future.
2. He acknowledged the team has been doing well lately
This turns down the pressure on making a big move. After all, as the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, why fix it? The roster he has now is obviously working. This turns down the pressure on making a big move. After all, as the saying goes, if it ain’t broke, why fix it? The roster he has now is obviously working.
After all, look at the two teams who recently made big moves – the New York Islanders are fighting for a playoff spot and were sixth out of eight teams in goals for, which explains why they paid the price to get Bo Horvat from the Canucks.
Meanwhile, the New York Rangers are in a dogfight with the New Jersey Devils in the Metropolitan for second place in the division and the last of the home-ice advantage spots for the playoffs – they’re currently four points back at the time of this writing. They also had a surplus of first-round picks from an earlier trade with Dallas so they could afford to part with one of the major pieces the Blues were looking for – the two big factors in why they went out and got Vladimir Tarasenko.
The Oilers, meanwhile, are in a completely different situation. At the time of this writing they sit but a single point out of the division lead and their nearest competition – Vegas – are hurting for injuries right now – notably Mark Stone and Robin Lehner have been out for the entire season – with Lehner guaranteed to be out for the season – and rookie All-Star Logan Thompson now out with injury as well. They’ve only won three of their last 10 games and things don’t appear to be looking any better for them.
Even some of the guys who are playing right now for them – specifically Jack Eichel – are rumoured to be playing injured right now. Compare this to the Oilers who are by far the hottest team in the division, going 8-0-2 in their last 10 games – in fact, only three other teams in the Pacific even have winning records in their last 10 games, and none of them (Calgary, Anaheim, or LA) have won more than five games, which is pretty tepid. One more Oilers win (which could be as early as tomorrow morning in Montreal) and one more Vegas loss and the division lead belongs to Edmonton.
Once Kailer Yamamoto is back in the lineup – which could be as soon as tomorrow – and the Oilers will have all the important pieces in the lineup and healthy (I don’t count Ryan Murray as a major piece). Once Kailer Yamamoto is back in the lineup – which could be as soon as tomorrow – and the Oilers will have all the important pieces in the lineup and healthy (I don’t count Ryan Murray as a major piece).
Naturally, this reduces the need for a major move. Even though Jesse Puljujarvi scored earlier today in Ottawa, he still remains our biggest trade chip – and could be on waivers unless the Oilers send Yamo down to Bakersfield on a conditioning stint.
3. Edmonton Oilers cap situation remains LTIR cap space rules the day
That means it’s more difficult for him to make a move. Not impossible, just more difficult. But it does mean that any move will either have to be with additional trade assets moved to incentivize trading partners to retain salary or simply make a move for players who have a smaller or the same cap hit as the player we move out.
Holland has been known to show some creativity in getting around the cap, and the fact that 16 teams in the NHL are in the same boat will surely reduce the prices come deadline day. After all, if the number of buying teams is reduced then this will naturally cause more bidding wars to drop off.
4. Be prepared for Holland to do potentially nothing or a single minor trade
Due to all the reasons listed above, we know Holland is a calm and tough negotiator and won’t be panicked into a move. After all, we rightly remember two offseasons ago when he balked at paying Jacob Markstrom $6 million a season, right?
Due to all the reasons listed above, we know Holland is a calm and tough negotiator and won’t be panicked into a move. After all, we rightly remember two offseasons ago when he balked at paying Jacob Markstrom $6 million a season, right?
A lot of people criticized him for that strategy, but look at where Markstrom is now. Completely dropped off the map and a boat anchor on our division rival’s cap space with three more years to go. Nobody is clamouring for him to come to the Oilers now, we really dodged a bullet on that one.
There’s historical precedence for Holland to not make a move he doesn’t like.
5. Holland doesn’t believe in going all-in, he’d rather have a team that’s competitive year after year
This means that just because a name player is available, doesn’t mean that Holland goes after him, even as a rental.
Word on the street is that Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg are attractive trade chips as are fellow prospects Xavier Bourgault, Reid Schaefer, and Raphael Lavoie.
But Holland considers all of these players key to the future, not the least of which is because young players on cheap ELCs are vital to keeping our spending on players’ salaries down – especially in this cap climate where the NHL is still recovering from the pandemic and the players have one more season of paying back the owners for salaries paid out during the cancellation of one season and subsequent late start of another.
The reason other teams find them attractive is the same reason we drafted them – we need them on our team too. If we traded them away and they turned out to be key contributors on other teams, how would that reflect on the GM?
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Lavoie especially would be valuable just now on the Oilers next season once the Bison King is inevitably traded and the Oilers replace JP’s cap hit with a much lower one with more upside. That might be wishful thinking, of course, but one never knows with these things. He could very well need more seasoning in the minors and the Oilers will be forced into an outside hire situation – or Bourgault’s been making waves too – maybe he makes the team next season.
I like this philosophy of Holland – after all, he’s right that there are no guarantees and if your playoff run goes nowhere you’ve just given up a significant chunk of your future for nothing.
So considering all of the above points, why would Holland mortgage the future and put his job on the line for a team that’s firing on all cylinders now?
I agree with Holland – I’d rather have a team that’s competitive and win two or three cups than one that’s competitive for one season and then drops off the map. So many people have been saying “WE ONLY HAVE MCDAVID AND DRAISAITL UNDER CONTRACT FOR X MORE SEASONS RAWWWWR” but think about this – what do you think our two superstars will find more attractive at the end of their contracts – a team with one cup and then drops off the map or a team that’s still competitive years down the road? I know the answer to that one, it’s the latter.
Personally, I’d be more concerned about the Leafs losing Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander than the Oilers losing Mcdavid or Draisaitl. I don’t know why any of their best players would stick around a franchise that loses another series in the first round and shows no signs of progress towards a Cup after six straight first-round series losses for the Maple Laffs, some of which were in very embarrassing fashion (vs. the Habs *cough**cough*).
My barber was telling me earlier this week that he thinks the Leafs will trade us Auston Matthews for Connor Mcdavid. I wouldn’t bet on that happening.
The bottom line is this – Ken Holland built his teams in Detroit around a pipeline of prospects that came and went to the Red Wings, and now he’s doing the exact same thing here. It’s a formula that works and has a proven track record, even more so in the salary cap era. You might even say he pioneered it.
It took Alex Ovechkin 13 years to win a Cup in Washington, and the Oilers are trending for that to happen before either of the McDrai duo’s contracts expire.