Are the Oilers defense (already) better than last season?

This is the second of a three-part article analyzing the differences between the 2021-22 Edmonton Oilers. The first part is just about the goalie position, with all the changes from last year, and you can read it clicking on the link below.

In this article we will be focused on the Edmonton Oilers’ defense and if it is already better compared to last season.

Let’s be honest, the defensive side of the team is complicated, we can just wonder what could have happened last season if the defense was better. Such as the goalie position, it does not have to be the best on NHL, it just has to be good, it just has to deliver on the big stages. And it’s hard to compare the defense with the powerful offense the Oilers has. Try to compare any defensemen lines on the NHL with a Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl Top 6

For example, let’s get the game 1 of the Oilers vs. Flames series (yes, the “we want ten” game). With the 9-6 score against Edmonton, it was a bad Oilers game overall and left all the Oilers’ supporters really worried about the next games, and got the Flames’ all hyped.

And it was needed just 51 seconds to the biggest fears to appear, when the Flames were already 2 goals ahead and seemed to dominate with a four-goal lead in the middle of the game. But when the offense came to the ice, the Oilers managed to tie the game but eventually took the first (and only) hit on the series.

In a game considered bad for the team, the Oilers managed to score 6 goals and erase a four-goal deficit. That’s how powerful this team can be, and it doesn’t need the best NHL defense, just need one who doesn’t take 9 goals when the team scores 6.

Other example is the game 4 of the same Battle of Alberta series. Oilers leading 3-0 in the first period, opening 3-1 in the series and the Flames tied in the most unexpected way possible. And still, the Oilers managed to beat the Flames 5-3 and close it all next game.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the possible defensive lines we can see in this season

Starting with the one we are all excepting to excel even more this season, Darnell Nurse has everything on his hands again to be the one who will lead the Oilers’ defense and take the role as a top defenseman, not only on the team, but in the whole league.

Unfortunately, last season he had to deal with a torn hip flexor injury who allegedly happened in the last week of the regular season, but was only published to the media after the end of the playoffs.

Nurse said that he suffered the injury in the final week of the regular season and was trying to play through it in all three series. “Our medical staff… taped it up, gave me some anti-inflamm’s and away you go,” Nurse said. “There’s no excuse when you get to this point in the season. You want to be on your game and play at a certain level. There’s no excuse. Everyone’s banged up this time of year. And myself personally, I wanted to be better in this series. It’s just added motivation for summer to come back and be a difference-maker next year.”

And even with the top defenseman playing with an injury, the Oilers was still able to reach the Western Conference Finals, eliminating teams such as the Los Angeles Kings and the Calgary Flames. If we get to see him playing with his full capacity, the post-season story can be even better than last season.

But we can’t talk about Nurse and don’t talk about one of the main motivators that we expect to see him excel at next season: His contract. With the 8 years, 74 million contract (9.25 million AAV) starting this season. At the moment, Darnell is the second highest cap hit of the Oilers, only behind Connor McDavid (12.5M AAV) and yes, he earns more money than the 2019-20 Hart Memorial Trophy and Ted Lindsey award winner Leon Draisaitl (8.5M AAV).

He knows exactly the role the franchise wants and believes he can perform on ice, by giving him 10.4% of the cap hit, in a movement comparable with names such as Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky, and even can remember Chris Pronger’s contract in 2005-06, in percentage of cap hit

Priciest Oilers D, in 2020-21 dollars: 2005-06: Chris Pronger – $13.06 million 2022-23: Darnell Nurse – $9.25 million 2007-08: Sheldon Souray – $8.75 million 2008-09: Lubomir Visnovsky – $8.05 million 2015-16: Andrej Sekera- $6.28 million

Nurse’s new contract doesn’t pay him to be Pronger; he’s not even in the ballpark, really. Nor is he comparable to former partner Andrej Sekera, the big defensive free-agent splash of Peter Chiarelli’s tenure and a distant fifth in the cap-era race of expensive Oilers defencemen.

In today’s numbers, good comparisons with other defense players would be Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks (8 years, 9.5M AAV until 2030), Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators (8 years, 9.059M AAV until 2028) and even Dougie Hamilton from the New Jersey Devils (7 years, 9M AVV until 2028).

In theory, the Oilers paid to have Nurse until 2030, when he will be 34 years old. He has the potential to fulfill the expectations in this Oilers’ defense, we can only hope this amount of money and confidence will be worth.

But who will play alongside the one who is expected to be the best defenseman of the team. It’s a real possibility to see the 22 years-old Evan Bouchard getting more minutes as he evolves his abilities on ice, but to start we should see the same as last year, with Cody Ceci being his partner.

And don’t get me wrong saying that he could be replaced by Bouchard. That wouldn’t happen because Ceci isn’t good, but it would by how Bouchard can be great with time. Cody has been good, not extraordinary, but good, and that’s exactly how the Oilers expect him to be.

With Darnell Nurse on his line, it’s not his responsibility to be the top defenseman. And yet, even arriving last year and already facing some coach changes, he just had one of his best career seasons with the Oilers.

In 78 regular season games, he scored 28 points with 5 goals and 23 assists. And in the playoffs, he had 7 points in 16 games, with 1 goal and 6 assists, and a plus minus of +4, even with the weak defense the Oilers had and Darnell Nurse being injured, he played great, averaging almost 20 minutes per night and had his best playoff numbers so far.

With that in mind, we can only expect he’ll be even better next season, especially playing with a healthy Darnell Nurse, having one of the most powerful offenses of the NHL and especially with a full season of Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. The 15th pick overall of the 2012 draft can still evolve even more on defense and be one of the most important players of the team, as noticed in the next quote,in the Oilers Nation preview of him:

What’s important to note, however, is how much of an improvement he saw under Woodcroft. His GF% and xGF% rose from 46.03 and 49.10, respectively, under Dave Tippett, with those same numbers rising to 50.88 and 54.70 by seasons end. Most notably, his goal share with Darnell Nurse, his most common linemate down the stretch, rose from 46.2 under Tippett, to 64.2 under Woodcroft — a huge improvement.

I know, we all liked to see a total change on the goaltending, and having a first option without doubts on Jack Campbell. Also, the value of Evander Kane’s contract together with the ones of Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto were a great job from GM Ken Holland and the whole organization

But one of the best off-season moves was Brett Kulak staying in Edmonton. With Duncan Keith retiring, the Oilers would have a big hole on defense if he had chosen to leave. Not only he is the perfect candidate to play on the second-pairing of defense, his contract is great as well.

The hometown boy signed for 4 years and 11 million dollars (2,75M AAV) to play for the team he grew up watching and supporting, even after being open to other options on the free agent market.

He already proved to be worth. Such as Cody Ceci, he arrived last season in Edmonton, is 28 years old and just had the best numbers of his career. Putting together his numbers in Montreal and Edmonton on 2021-22, he had 21 points (5 goals and 16 assists) in 74 games played.

But at the big spot he really showed what he is capable. With Nurse being injured and even suspended one game, he received more minutes than usual, more pressure than usual and played great, posting 5 assists and a plus minus of +7 in 16 playoff games.

Just like Ceci, in a full season with Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, Kulak can also still evolve even more on defense and be one of the most important players of the team, making his contract be worth as well. Here’s what he had to say about testing the free agent market and staying in Edmonton:

“You might only have one opportunity to test the free agent market [en carrière], philosophized Kulak, according to the official Oilers website. In this situation, I said to myself: « let’s see how it goes ». There were some things on the table, but the balance of things I was hoping to achieve [était] in Edmonton. It was an obvious decision to settle here with my wife.”

Completing the Oilers’ defensive top 4 we have Evan Bouchard. Evan just had his first full season in NHL, playing 81 of the 82 games in regular season, scoring 12 goals and 31 assists (43 points) in a second-pairing with most of time having the highly-contested Duncan Keith alongside him. In the playoffs, he scored 3 goals and 6 assists in 16 GP. I know, sometimes we tend to forget, but that was only his rookie season.

Nurse has the potential to excel this season. Ceci and Kulak can have their best career numbers this year, but the one who seems to blaze up this season is Bouchard.

He will have all this expectation only with 23 years-old. This past year the Oilers noticed that the 10th pick of the 2018 draft isn’t just an important prospect for the future, but he’s already an important player for the present of the franchise.

Here is his numbers compared to other defensemen in the NHL:

Among all defenceman who played as many minutes as Bouchard last year, he ranked seventh in terms of his 5×5 points per hour production. His 1.42 ranked behind the likes of Morgan Rielly, Victor Hedman, Justin Faulk, Brady Skjei, Cale Makar, and Roman Josi. Bouchard is good. Among the same parameters, Bouchard ranked fifth in 5×5 goals per hour behind Hedman, Shayne Gostisbehere, Makar, and Faulk.

And he’s not only valuable on the 5×5. His presence on the Power Play on only his rookie season was already great, with him having numbers to be even on the first line, contributing effectively on PP lines with names such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane.

If he keeps improving as he is, we should see Bouchard earning even more and more ice time, such in 5×5 and Power Play, taking the place from Tyson Barrie, one of the most “offensive defenseman” in league

His offensive numbers are above average between the defensemen, but he still has a lot of room to be better in his defensive skills, and being with Brett Kulak most of the time, and even with Darnell Nurse sometimes, in addition to a full season with Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, two coaches he knows since he played in Bakersfield, Evan can become a top defenseman in both sides of the ice.

And the Oilers has be profit all they can in the last rookie year of his contract:

Bouchard broke out in his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and gave the Oilers a legitimate offensive threat from the blue line at just $863,333. With a full season of mentorship under coaches Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, Bouchard should only get better. The ceiling is very high, and his defensive game should round into form soon enough. The Oilers will need to take advantage of the final year of the young defenceman’s entry-level deal before he is paid significantly more.