Are the Oilers defense (already) better than last season?

Starting with the one we are all excepting to excel even more this season, Darnell Nurse has everything on his hands again to be the one who will lead the Oilers’ defense and take the role as a top defenseman, not only on the team, but in the whole league.

Unfortunately, last season he had to deal with a torn hip flexor injury who allegedly happened in the last week of the regular season, but was only published to the media after the end of the playoffs.

Nurse said that he suffered the injury in the final week of the regular season and was trying to play through it in all three series. “Our medical staff… taped it up, gave me some anti-inflamm’s and away you go,” Nurse said. “There’s no excuse when you get to this point in the season. You want to be on your game and play at a certain level. There’s no excuse. Everyone’s banged up this time of year. And myself personally, I wanted to be better in this series. It’s just added motivation for summer to come back and be a difference-maker next year.”

And even with the top defenseman playing with an injury, the Oilers was still able to reach the Western Conference Finals, eliminating teams such as the Los Angeles Kings and the Calgary Flames. If we get to see him playing with his full capacity, the post-season story can be even better than last season.

But we can’t talk about Nurse and don’t talk about one of the main motivators that we expect to see him excel at next season: His contract. With the 8 years, 74 million contract (9.25 million AAV) starting this season. At the moment, Darnell is the second highest cap hit of the Oilers, only behind Connor McDavid (12.5M AAV) and yes, he earns more money than the 2019-20 Hart Memorial Trophy and Ted Lindsey award winner Leon Draisaitl (8.5M AAV).

He knows exactly the role the franchise wants and believes he can perform on ice, by giving him 10.4% of the cap hit, in a movement comparable with names such as Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky, and even can remember Chris Pronger’s contract in 2005-06, in percentage of cap hit

Priciest Oilers D, in 2020-21 dollars: 2005-06: Chris Pronger – $13.06 million 2022-23: Darnell Nurse – $9.25 million 2007-08: Sheldon Souray – $8.75 million 2008-09: Lubomir Visnovsky – $8.05 million 2015-16: Andrej Sekera- $6.28 million

Nurse’s new contract doesn’t pay him to be Pronger; he’s not even in the ballpark, really. Nor is he comparable to former partner Andrej Sekera, the big defensive free-agent splash of Peter Chiarelli’s tenure and a distant fifth in the cap-era race of expensive Oilers defencemen.

In today’s numbers, good comparisons with other defense players would be Seth Jones from the Chicago Blackhawks (8 years, 9.5M AAV until 2030), Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators (8 years, 9.059M AAV until 2028) and even Dougie Hamilton from the New Jersey Devils (7 years, 9M AVV until 2028).

In theory, the Oilers paid to have Nurse until 2030, when he will be 34 years old. He has the potential to fulfill the expectations in this Oilers’ defense, we can only hope this amount of money and confidence will be worth.

But who will play alongside the one who is expected to be the best defenseman of the team. It’s a real possibility to see the 22 years-old Evan Bouchard getting more minutes as he evolves his abilities on ice, but to start we should see the same as last year, with Cody Ceci being his partner.

And don’t get me wrong saying that he could be replaced by Bouchard. That wouldn’t happen because Ceci isn’t good, but it would by how Bouchard can be great with time. Cody has been good, not extraordinary, but good, and that’s exactly how the Oilers expect him to be.

With Darnell Nurse on his line, it’s not his responsibility to be the top defenseman. And yet, even arriving last year and already facing some coach changes, he just had one of his best career seasons with the Oilers.

In 78 regular season games, he scored 28 points with 5 goals and 23 assists. And in the playoffs, he had 7 points in 16 games, with 1 goal and 6 assists, and a plus minus of +4, even with the weak defense the Oilers had and Darnell Nurse being injured, he played great, averaging almost 20 minutes per night and had his best playoff numbers so far.

With that in mind, we can only expect he’ll be even better next season, especially playing with a healthy Darnell Nurse, having one of the most powerful offenses of the NHL and especially with a full season of Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. The 15th pick overall of the 2012 draft can still evolve even more on defense and be one of the most important players of the team, as noticed in the next quote,in the Oilers Nation preview of him:

What’s important to note, however, is how much of an improvement he saw under Woodcroft. His GF% and xGF% rose from 46.03 and 49.10, respectively, under Dave Tippett, with those same numbers rising to 50.88 and 54.70 by seasons end. Most notably, his goal share with Darnell Nurse, his most common linemate down the stretch, rose from 46.2 under Tippett, to 64.2 under Woodcroft — a huge improvement.

I know, we all liked to see a total change on the goaltending, and having a first option without doubts on Jack Campbell. Also, the value of Evander Kane’s contract together with the ones of Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto were a great job from GM Ken Holland and the whole organization

But one of the best off-season moves was Brett Kulak staying in Edmonton. With Duncan Keith retiring, the Oilers would have a big hole on defense if he had chosen to leave. Not only he is the perfect candidate to play on the second-pairing of defense, his contract is great as well.

The hometown boy signed for 4 years and 11 million dollars (2,75M AAV) to play for the team he grew up watching and supporting, even after being open to other options on the free agent market.

He already proved to be worth. Such as Cody Ceci, he arrived last season in Edmonton, is 28 years old and just had the best numbers of his career. Putting together his numbers in Montreal and Edmonton on 2021-22, he had 21 points (5 goals and 16 assists) in 74 games played.

But at the big spot he really showed what he is capable. With Nurse being injured and even suspended one game, he received more minutes than usual, more pressure than usual and played great, posting 5 assists and a plus minus of +7 in 16 playoff games.

Just like Ceci, in a full season with Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, Kulak can also still evolve even more on defense and be one of the most important players of the team, making his contract be worth as well. Here’s what he had to say about testing the free agent market and staying in Edmonton:

“You might only have one opportunity to test the free agent market [en carrière], philosophized Kulak, according to the official Oilers website. In this situation, I said to myself: « let’s see how it goes ». There were some things on the table, but the balance of things I was hoping to achieve [était] in Edmonton. It was an obvious decision to settle here with my wife.”

Completing the Oilers’ defensive top 4 we have Evan Bouchard. Evan just had his first full season in NHL, playing 81 of the 82 games in regular season, scoring 12 goals and 31 assists (43 points) in a second-pairing with most of time having the highly-contested Duncan Keith alongside him. In the playoffs, he scored 3 goals and 6 assists in 16 GP. I know, sometimes we tend to forget, but that was only his rookie season.

Nurse has the potential to excel this season. Ceci and Kulak can have their best career numbers this year, but the one who seems to blaze up this season is Bouchard.

He will have all this expectation only with 23 years-old. This past year the Oilers noticed that the 10th pick of the 2018 draft isn’t just an important prospect for the future, but he’s already an important player for the present of the franchise.

Here is his numbers compared to other defensemen in the NHL:

Among all defenceman who played as many minutes as Bouchard last year, he ranked seventh in terms of his 5×5 points per hour production. His 1.42 ranked behind the likes of Morgan Rielly, Victor Hedman, Justin Faulk, Brady Skjei, Cale Makar, and Roman Josi. Bouchard is good. Among the same parameters, Bouchard ranked fifth in 5×5 goals per hour behind Hedman, Shayne Gostisbehere, Makar, and Faulk.

And he’s not only valuable on the 5×5. His presence on the Power Play on only his rookie season was already great, with him having numbers to be even on the first line, contributing effectively on PP lines with names such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane.

If he keeps improving as he is, we should see Bouchard earning even more and more ice time, such in 5×5 and Power Play, taking the place from Tyson Barrie, one of the most “offensive defenseman” in league

His offensive numbers are above average between the defensemen, but he still has a lot of room to be better in his defensive skills, and being with Brett Kulak most of the time, and even with Darnell Nurse sometimes, in addition to a full season with Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, two coaches he knows since he played in Bakersfield, Evan can become a top defenseman in both sides of the ice.

And the Oilers has be profit all they can in the last rookie year of his contract:

Bouchard broke out in his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and gave the Oilers a legitimate offensive threat from the blue line at just $863,333. With a full season of mentorship under coaches Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, Bouchard should only get better. The ceiling is very high, and his defensive game should round into form soon enough. The Oilers will need to take advantage of the final year of the young defenceman’s entry-level deal before he is paid significantly more.

The bottom line of defense can change quickly, with a lot of new prospects wanting some minutes on the big league and trades still to happen, wouldn’t be a surprise if it becomes a different bottom 6 in the curse of the season.

On the left he should see Ryan Murray getting some time. The 2nd overall pick of the (un)forgettable 2012 draft ended up playing for Edmonton 10 years after all the fuss between his name and Nail Yakupov. And as Nail, he never fulfilled the expectations in the NHL, coming to his third team in three seasons (NJD, COL and now EDM) after spending 8 years in Columbus, the team who drafted him in 2012.

The main cause of him never getting able to accomplish these expectations were the injuries. He has only played 432 games since 2013, averaging 48 per season. His best season in points was in 2018-19 with the Blue Jackets, the only one he played 82 games, when he scored 29 points (1 goal and 28 assists) in 56 games played, having an average ice time of 21:26.

But last season with the Avalanche, he just had four assists in 37 GP, being a healthy scratch for the playoffs. Since March 2017, he has on Injured Reserve seven times, and an additional one in LTIR. Here are some stats about his last seasons and the influence of the injuries on them:

Granted, Murray has never been known as a scorer. Even during his standout junior career with the Everett Silvertips, the blueliner failed to reach double-figures for goals in any of his four Western Hockey League seasons. For his career, he has 15 goals in 432 NHL games (plus one in 20 NHL playoff contests), with a single-season high of four (2013-14 and 2015-16). Don’t look for Murray to start lighting the lamp in Edmonton, either. At this stage of his career, it’s pretty clear what Murray is, and he is not an offensive defenceman. But the Oilers already have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, including on the backend. What Edmonton needs from him is a dependable veteran blueliner that can be a positive influence in the locker room and fill the challenging role of seventh defenceman, who could just as easily draw onto the first pairing as be a healthy scratch in the press box.

For only one-year contact, earning the minimum salary of the NHL ($750.000), Murray brings good competition for some minutes in the defense, getting himself and the AHL players to always be improving and, if it doesn’t work for him and the team, is a bet with no risks involved for the Oilers.

Injuries hampered him during his tenure with Colorado, but he also served in a limited role while healthy. Still, he’s turning just 29 on Sept. 27 and he’s played as a top-four defenseman at times in the past, so he’s someone to keep an eye on going into the Oilers’ training camp.

But what about Tyson Barrie? The main question about him is not about his abilities, his stats or anything else. It is if he will be an Oiler this season.

At this moment, the Oilers still must find a way to be cap complacent. With Klefbom and Smith on LTIR, the team yet need to clear 1.19 million and sign Ryan McLeod, so something has to change on this lineup until opening day, and a 3rd line defenseman who has a 4.5M AAV is one of the favorites to leave.

We all know how good Barrie was in the 2020-21 season on the offensive side, scoring 48 points (8 goals, 40 assists) in just 56 games of the shortened season. That was better than his 39 points with the Maple Leafs in 2019-20.

Like Evan Bouchard, he is great on offense, but in defense, which is his primary position, is where the problem is. We can bring some stats to prove it, but just seeing Barrie in the last defensive line on the Oilers’ defense, which is average compared to the NHL, losing already minutes to Cody Ceci who just arrived last season and Evan Bouchard, who made his rookie season last year, shows that Barrie has to get back his good form to have place on the team.

Even on Power Play, where he was undoubtedly the defenseman in first line, now he has lost this place. Evan Bouchard is here to stay, and names such as Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen and Dmitri Samoroukov are on line to get some minutes. Even some known names, like Kris Russell and Slater Koekkoek are always trying to get back, and that puts competition for these spots, which is always good for the team as a whole.

Tyson has yet 2 more years on his contract, and he can’t keep playing in a way he’s fighting for minutes with AHLers. If he stays as an Oiler, he will have some work to do. Like the other defenseman, let’s hope a full season of Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson helps him and the team to be even better in this season that is about to begin.