How Mike Smith and Duncan Keith decisions can change the 2022-23 Oilers’ season

The second one on Oilers’ retirement list is Duncan Keith. And with him, the situation is a little bit more complicated. The defenseman is 38 years old but will be 40 next year and still has one more year on his 13-year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks.

His cap hit is 5.5 million, so if he chooses to retire, it would open a lot of other possibilities for the Oilers pursue an elite goaltender, explore the possibility of keeping Evander Kane, and countless other options in the free agency. If we add the 2.2 million from Mike Smith, things get even better

But, coming in the opposite direction of Mike Smith, Duncan does not seem to be interested in hanging the skates, and the Oilers aren’t as well.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman also talked about Duncan’s situation on the 32 Thoughts podcast:

"“I’ve heard mixed things on this. I’ve heard Keith really liked it in Edmonton this year. Really the run, the two victories. I heard the organization really was thankful for the role he played with a lot of the younger players. I heard they realy liked having him around because of his attitude and because he’s a fitness freak. You see the way Keith prepares, you really have an understanding of what it takes. I know the Oilers were really happy with him. I’ve had some people say to me he’ll be back, I’ve had some other people say they’re just not 100% sure. So they said just take ‘Duncan, take a couple of weeks and think about it.” “I’ve heard mixed things on this. I’ve heard Keith really liked it in Edmonton this year. Really the run, the two victories. I heard the organization really was thankful for the role he played with a lot of the younger players. I heard they realy liked having him around because of his attitude and because he’s a fitness freak. You see the way Keith prepares, you really have an understanding of what it takes. I know the Oilers were really happy with him. I’ve had some people say to me he’ll be back, I’ve had some other people say they’re just not 100% sure. So they said just take ‘Duncan, take a couple of weeks and think about it.”"

He played for 64 games in this season with Edmonton, scoring one goal and 20 assists. In the playoffs, he played all 16 Oilers’ games, scoring this one goal and 4 of these assists. We all have to agree he brings experience to the team, A LOT OF EXPERIENCE.

He simply has 151 playoff games in his career. New defensemen such as Evan Bouchard, who paired with him a lot of games can benefit from it, but we all saw he is nowhere close to what he used to be

But Keith wanting to keep playing is not the complicated part, the complicated one is the understanding of the NHL about the cap relief. Besides the 5.5 million that would become available for the Oilers, the team could (in theory) add 3.4 million with the possible retirement of Keith as a cap relief.

That was all set and we all had no doubts about it. Until 2 days ago

Bill Daly, NHL deputy Commissioner, just announced: “No, there is no concept of a ‘cap credit’ for current teams that may lose a player to retirement”. Just an unexpected change of rules from nowhere that can make a huge impact on the Oilers’ team for next year if indeed Keith chooses to retire.

The Oilers will have one of the most hectic free agencies for next season. Besides the Mike Smith and Duncan Keith situations, the team still has to deal with Evander Kane contract and if the team can keep both Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto, who are restricted free agents (RFA), in the opposite of Kane, who is an unrestricted free agent (UFA). And of course, the team still has to make an agreement with head coach Jay Woodcroft. At this moment, the team cannot afford all these things. That’s why both retirements are a major subject in the organization right now.