How Mike Smith and Duncan Keith decisions can change the 2022-23 Oilers’ season

Mike Smith, the first option for Oilers’ goal when trying to win it all, is 40 years old and still has 1 year left on his contract, with a cap hit of 2.2 million. He has already played in 16 NHL seasons (2006-2022) and in the 16 playoff games this season (lucky 16!) he had 8 wins, 6 losses and a sv% of .913%.

He was already a big doubt in everyone’s mind, if he could still perform and well… We all know some games he was great, and some other ones not so great. Without Mikko Koskinen, if he chooses to finish his contract, he would probably keep his main role in the team. The thing is, even he is thinking about retiring. As Jason Gregor said:

“I’ve heard rumblings that Smith is considering retirement. His salary next season ($2.5m) is higher than his AAV ($2.2m) so if he does retire he won’t count against the cap. He fought back his emotions in his post-game presser last night. He’s an emotional person, so maybe it was simply the disappointment of losing, but the structure of his contract, having his sons attend post-game pressers at times this playoffs, his age and his emotion last night, make me think retirement is a legit possibility… He proved he can still compete and play well in the NHL this year, but does he want to do all the work in the off-season to get ready for next season? If he decides this is it for him, I expect he will tell Ken Holland before free agency. He wouldn’t leave the organization later in the summer when the UFA market has dried up. It is short-sighted to think replacing Smith will be easy. There are good goalies available, but how many will sign for the same $2.2m cap hit that Smith has? And are you certain they will be as good in the playoffs? Playoff success, even for top-end goalies, is far from a certainty. Ask the Flames.” “I’ve heard rumblings that Smith is considering retirement. His salary next season ($2.5m) is higher than his AAV ($2.2m) so if he does retire he won’t count against the cap. He fought back his emotions in his post-game presser last night. He’s an emotional person, so maybe it was simply the disappointment of losing, but the structure of his contract, having his sons attend post-game pressers at times this playoffs, his age and his emotion last night, make me think retirement is a legit possibility… He proved he can still compete and play well in the NHL this year, but does he want to do all the work in the off-season to get ready for next season? If he decides this is it for him, I expect he will tell Ken Holland before free agency. He wouldn’t leave the organization later in the summer when the UFA market has dried up. It is short-sighted to think replacing Smith will be easy. There are good goalies available, but how many will sign for the same $2.2m cap hit that Smith has? And are you certain they will be as good in the playoffs? Playoff success, even for top-end goalies, is far from a certainty. Ask the Flames.”

And we all know the oilers would have only the 23-year-old Stuart Skinner if Smith decides to hand the skates. Skinner is great and I really hope to see him playing even more this season. He has the potential to be the future of Edmonton. But we are in the present, and he has a lot to develop as well. Even with Smith, the Oilers will be searching for a goalie in the free agency. Without him, we can be sure a new face will appear behind the Oilers’ helmet.

Elliotte Friedman said, in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast:

“Smith had made it very clear publicly that he was thinking about (retirement), I think LTIR is a possibility for him, even if he decides not to officially retire. I hear he’s really banged up, really banged up.” “Smith had made it very clear publicly that he was thinking about (retirement), I think LTIR is a possibility for him, even if he decides not to officially retire. I hear he’s really banged up, really banged up.”

The Oilers reportedly asked about Mike Smith decision until July, 1st. But he wasn’t the only one to be asked about it.

The second one on Oilers’ retirement list is Duncan Keith. And with him, the situation is a little bit more complicated. The defenseman is 38 years old but will be 40 next year and still has one more year on his 13-year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks.

His cap hit is 5.5 million, so if he chooses to retire, it would open a lot of other possibilities for the Oilers pursue an elite goaltender, explore the possibility of keeping Evander Kane, and countless other options in the free agency. If we add the 2.2 million from Mike Smith, things get even better

But, coming in the opposite direction of Mike Smith, Duncan does not seem to be interested in hanging the skates, and the Oilers aren’t as well.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman also talked about Duncan’s situation on the 32 Thoughts podcast:

“I’ve heard mixed things on this. I’ve heard Keith really liked it in Edmonton this year. Really the run, the two victories. I heard the organization really was thankful for the role he played with a lot of the younger players. I heard they realy liked having him around because of his attitude and because he’s a fitness freak. You see the way Keith prepares, you really have an understanding of what it takes. I know the Oilers were really happy with him. I’ve had some people say to me he’ll be back, I’ve had some other people say they’re just not 100% sure. So they said just take ‘Duncan, take a couple of weeks and think about it.” “I’ve heard mixed things on this. I’ve heard Keith really liked it in Edmonton this year. Really the run, the two victories. I heard the organization really was thankful for the role he played with a lot of the younger players. I heard they realy liked having him around because of his attitude and because he’s a fitness freak. You see the way Keith prepares, you really have an understanding of what it takes. I know the Oilers were really happy with him. I’ve had some people say to me he’ll be back, I’ve had some other people say they’re just not 100% sure. So they said just take ‘Duncan, take a couple of weeks and think about it.”

He played for 64 games in this season with Edmonton, scoring one goal and 20 assists. In the playoffs, he played all 16 Oilers’ games, scoring this one goal and 4 of these assists. We all have to agree he brings experience to the team, A LOT OF EXPERIENCE.

He simply has 151 playoff games in his career. New defensemen such as Evan Bouchard, who paired with him a lot of games can benefit from it, but we all saw he is nowhere close to what he used to be

But Keith wanting to keep playing is not the complicated part, the complicated one is the understanding of the NHL about the cap relief. Besides the 5.5 million that would become available for the Oilers, the team could (in theory) add 3.4 million with the possible retirement of Keith as a cap relief.

That was all set and we all had no doubts about it. Until 2 days ago

Bill Daly, NHL deputy Commissioner, just announced: “No, there is no concept of a ‘cap credit’ for current teams that may lose a player to retirement”. Just an unexpected change of rules from nowhere that can make a huge impact on the Oilers’ team for next year if indeed Keith chooses to retire.

The Oilers will have one of the most hectic free agencies for next season. Besides the Mike Smith and Duncan Keith situations, the team still has to deal with Evander Kane contract and if the team can keep both Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto, who are restricted free agents (RFA), in the opposite of Kane, who is an unrestricted free agent (UFA). And of course, the team still has to make an agreement with head coach Jay Woodcroft. At this moment, the team cannot afford all these things. That’s why both retirements are a major subject in the organization right now.