Next stop – Denver

Last night the Colorado Avalanche beat the St. Louis Blues in game six of their series to clinch a third round playoff berth against the Oilers.

For the Oilers, this will be their toughest test yet. I had a feeling the Oilers would be able to handle the teams within their division, but I was less confident once they got outside the division. I still feel the same way today.

The Avs have had more playoff success than the Oilers the last couple of years, but this will still be their first trip to the conference finals since 2002, almost as long as the Oilers.

The Avs had injury issues in their top six earlier in the year, but now they’re 100% healthy and thus will be a handful. The same can’t be said for their D corps, but they’re still a formidable bunch.

Let’s see how they match up.

The Avs top 6 is a formidable one, similar to the Oilers but the attack is a little more balanced. Whereas the Oilers top six forwards are led by two superstars, one star player in Evander Kane and three very good players, the Avs are led by three star players in Nathan Mckinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog – all of whom finished at 30 goals or better in the regular season. Rantanen and Mckinnon finished 1-2 in Avs scoring in the regular season with 92 and 88 points respectively.

The rest of the top six is flanked by Artturi Lehkonen, who arrived at the trade deadline from Montreal and scored six goals and nine points in 16 games. Then there’s veteran Nazem Kadri, who has experienced a career renaissance this season since coming to the Avs from Toronto, putting up 28 goals and a career best 87 points – and this was on an 11.3 shooting %, only 0.1% higher than his career average, so those marks mean this guy is for real.

Valeri Nichushkin rounds it out – and he broke out as a sniper type scorer in a big way this year, scoring 25 goals and 52 points this year. Now bearing in mind that was with a 13.9% shooting %, which is 4.2% above his career average so he might be the one guy that on paper that’s a little mortal.

As you would expect, all of these players have continued this momentum into the playoffs in the first two rounds.

Either way, that’s still a lot of firepower. I have no doubt Jay Woodcroft will come up with a special strategy to shutdown this top six because these guys make Calgary look like a junior team. Any one of these players could burn you at anytime. I don’t know how the Oilers will defend against it, but it will be essential if they want to move onto the Cup finals.

There aren’t many teams that can match the Oilers firepower in the top six, but Colorado is one of them. Let’s call this a wash.

Like the Oilers, the Avs can post good depth at the bottom end of the roster, too. They have a winger version of Nuge in Andre Burakovsky, who finished the regular season with 22-39-61 in 80 games and is 1-3-4 in 8 games so far in the playoffs.

Third line center is JT Compher, 18-15-33 and 2-2-4 in 10 playoff games so far. Rounding out line three is Nicholas Aube-Kubel, who was claimed on waivers earlier in the season from the Flyers and has since gone 11-11-22 in 67 regular season games. He’s produced goose eggs through 10 playoff games this year so far for the Avs. He’s been snakebit in the playoffs but previously put up 2-1-3 in the same 10 games with the Flyers earlier in his career, so he’s certainly capable of chipping in.

The fourth line starts with ex-Oiler from a long time ago Andrew Cogliano, who came over at the deadline from San Jose. He’s only put up a single assist in 18 regular season games but has a goal in seven games in the playoffs so far. At center is longtime Detroit Red Wing Darren Helm, who at 35 looks like he still has something left in the tank, going 7-8-15 in 68 regular season games and is already 1-1-2 in 10 playoff games.

I’m actually surprised that Ken Holland didn’t try to acquire him for the Oilers considering their history in Detroit together – maybe he already did and we just don’t know about it. Rounding out the fourth line is youngster Logan O’Connor, an undrafted player who was signed as a college free agent in 2018, and is now playing his first full season in the NHL, putting up 8-16-24 in 81 games along with a +10. He’s 1-1-2 in seven playoff games so far.

I’m going to call this a wash as well. That’s pretty good depth to round out the shooting gallery at the top of the roster.

The D corps are formidable too, just like the forward ranks.

They’re led by breakout youngster Cale Makar, who at the age of 23 broke out big time this season by putting up 28 goals and 86 points in 77 games, second only to Roman Josi in scoring by blueliners. He’s already put up 3-10-13 in 10 games and will be a handful for the Oilers all series long.

His partner is veteran Devon Toews, no slouch himself as he’s put up 13-44-57 in 66 regular season games and 4-4-8 in 10 playoff games so far.

The second pairing is deadline day acquisition Josh Manson, acquired I assume because Samuel Girard is out with an injury long term. He’s put up 2-5-7 in 22 games in the regular season and 1-4-5 in 10 playoff games so far. Girard’s PPG number is 0.42 while Manson’s is 0.32 – there’s a slight dropoff that perhaps the Oilers could exploit.

His partner is the much maligned Jack Johnson, acquired in the offseason from the Rangers. He’s put up 1-8-9 in 74 games. He’s played in three playoff games so far and not produced any offence. He looks to be the one weak spot we might be able to exploit. His counterpart on the Oilers is Duncan Keith, a superior player who has put up better numbers in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Even the Avs bottom pairing is formidable. Covering for the injured Ryan Murray is Bowen Byram, who has put up 5-12-17 in 30 regular season games, and he’s already put up six assists in 10 playoff games for the Avs – and like Evan Bouchard this is his first playoffs too. Wow.

Rounding out the D corps is veteran Erik Johnson, who has put up 8-17-25 in 77 games in the regular season and 1-4-5 in 10 playoff games so far.

I can’t decide who’s out in front on this one because the Oilers don’t have an answer to Cale Makar but on the other hand Samuel Girard is a huge loss for the Avs and Jack Johnson might be a good veteran but he’s not an adequate substitute.

I could make an argument for either team on this one, so let’s just keep it simple and say this one’s a wash too.

Between The Pipes

This was yet another judgement call to research. After all, Darcy Kuemper is a great goalie who finished fifth in the league in the regular season in sv% and 21st in GAA with a 2.54.

We all know how Mike Smith’s regular season went, but he’s really found his form in the playoffs, outdueling two pretty good goalies in Jonathan Quick and Jakob Markstrom. It’s also worth mentioning that Smith has the far superior track record in the playoffs, as he has a stingy .930 sv% lifetime and a 2.44 GAA. Kuemper’s numbers are only .910 and 2.71 lifetime. Even looking at just these playoffs so far, Smith has the edge in sv% at .927 to Kuemper’s .904, but Kuemper has the edge at GAA – 2.44 to 2.70.

Let’s go with the broken record approach and call this one a wash too.

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Special Teams

Colorado has the edge on the PP, as they’re first in the league among playoff teams right now with a 34.5%. However, the Oilers aren’t exactly slouches in this area either as they’re fourth in the league at 28.2%.

However, the Oilers have the edge on the PK, sixth in the league at 85.4%, while the Avs are only 11th at 73.1%.

As has become the theme of this blog, let’s call this a wash. It somehow seems fitting that the two teams split the special teams numbers too.