The psychological war in the BOA

Is there a more perfect picture of the Battle of Alberta in the playoffs than this picture? I was wondering what picture to post and then this came across my screen in the first checklist.  The Edmonton Oilers and the Calgary Flames really don’t like each other.

It’ll be worth noting that the Edmonton Oilers will have the mental war in the second round on their side. What’s going on inside the players’ heads is often even more important than what’s going on inside their bodies when it comes to the NHL playoffs.

The reason I say the Oilers will have the mental edge in this series is because Calgary will have a lot more pressure on them to win than the Oilers will. You know both teams will bring it and the series will go to seven games, but the Oilers will be better equipped to handle the pressure than the Flames will be.

It all starts on Wednesday, and frankly I can’t wait.

But let’s go into why the Edmonton Oilers will win the mental war.

Calgary won the division in the regular season, and that makes them the favourites to win the series. The Oilers were the favourites to win in round one, but in round two they’ll be the underdogs. Calgary finished with a slightly higher points % than the Oilers did, so unlike in round one the Edmonton Oilers won’t have home ice advantage, but what they will have is the underdog role – which is not necessarily a bad thing as long as the team doesn’t approach the series with a defeatist attitude, which I doubt they will.

You see, as the underdog the Edmonton Oilers can simply play their game without having to feel trapped by pressure inside their own heads like the Flames will be. The pressure is intensified on the Flames because they finished higher in the standings. When you’re expected to win it’s not as much of an accomplishment – at least from the media and fan side – as it is when you’re not expected to win.

The Edmonton Oilers will be able to use that to their advantage mentally throughout the series. If I were Jay Woodcroft I’d be all over that – “Just relax and play, boys. The pressure is on them to win, not us.”

That’s right, Calgary’s two best players are wingers Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk whose contracts are up after this season. The two combined for a $13.75 million cap hit over this season.

On a lesser scale, the contracts of Andrew Mangipane and blueliner Nikita Zadorov are also up.

Complicating matters even more is the fact that both players finished with a shooting % this season which is ~ 3% over their career shooting % so it’s likely that their seasons of 115 and 104 points respectively are more of an aberration than a new normal for the pair.

I mean, what do you pay guys who seem to look poised to take a tumble in stats but are still very good players?

GM Brad Treliving could’ve locked them up in season and taken steps to decrease their cap hits – front load the contracts, give them a huge signing bonus if they signed for a moderate paycheque afterwards, there’s all kinds of ways to get creative with their contracts.

But Treliving didn’t do that. He foolishly didn’t lock either player up and is now facing the very real possibility he could lose both in free agency for nothing, when losing even one of them would be a huge hit to the team’s fortunes. Take a look if you don’t believe me.

There could be other factors at play, but to me this says that there’s a good chance the players don’t believe in the team over the long term.

The Edmonton Oilers, on the other hand, have no such issue with their two best players, who were locked up in good time without any possibility of being signed by some other team for nothing. Connor Mcdavid has another four seasons on his current deal while the Deutschland Dangler Leon Draisaitl has another three seasons remaining.

This means the Flames could potentially have this season, and this season only, to make a long playoff run and win a cup. That’s a heck of a lot of pressure, especially when they didn’t even make the playoffs at all the season before.

Brad Treliving as GM has continued a rather dubious tradition for the Flames. What is that tradition you may ask? One of inconsistency season over season. The Flames in their history have rarely been able to have consistent seasons of success. It’s always one step forward, then one step back.

Even in their two most successful seasons, 1989 (Cup win) and 2004 (Cup finals appearance) they were out in the first round in 1990 and again out in the first round in 2006 (the 2005 season was cancelled due to a lockout, if you remember).

Even if you look at the full seasons of Treliving’s tenure, here’s what you see:

2015 – out in the second round of the playoffs

2016 – didn’t make the playoffs

2017 – out in the first round of the playoffs

2018 – didn’t make the playoffs

2019 – out in the first round of the playoffs

2020 – they won the qualifying round but were out in the first round

2021 – didn’t make the playoffs

Only once in Treliving’s tenure have the Flames made the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and even then the team was out in the first round both times. Not an encouraging sign.

In fact, the Flames haven’t put together a team that was successful in consecutive seasons since the 80s. Their entire history almost has been one of make the playoffs, maybe win a round but probably not, then drop off the map again next season.

If the Flames can get at least to the third round that might save his job. Maybe. But I have to think that Treliving’s seat is feeling awfully hot these days. I don’t know how ownership of an NHL team would find it acceptable to have a GM around for eight offseasons and seven full seasons and not have the team move the needle on it’s window to win in the slightest. On most teams the Brad Trelivings of this world would have five years to prove their skills and that’s all.

Ken Holland, on the other hand, has no such pressure here. He’s been the Edmonton Oilers GM for only four offseasons and three full seasons, for one thing, and during that time his teams have made the playoffs three consecutive years and advanced to the second round (and potentially more) this season.

I don’t know about you, but I’d rather be the GM in Oil Country than Cowtown these days. Starting a tradition of winning or continuing a tradition of choking? If that were Sophie’s Choice it would’ve been a much shorter movie.