Edmonton Oilers Potential Playoff Opponents: LA Kings
This blog is going to be the start of a mini-series I’m writing – there’s only 10 games left in the Edmonton Oilers season so let’s take a look at some of the opponents we might face in both the division and the conference.
A good place to start is the most likely opponent the Edmonton Oilers will draw in the first round – the Los Angeles Kings.
The Kings undertook a rebuild a few seasons ago and are now roughly about where the Oilers were three seasons ago more or less – mostly done the rebuild but not a team that’s really equipped to make some noise just yet.
Due to contracts, the Kings are kind of stuck between the past and the present. Core players from their Stanley Cup winning years in 2012 and 2014 remain on the roster – Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick.
These players are interspersed with future stars who are either works in progress or starting to blossom – guys like Quinton Byfield and Adrian Kempe.
Of all the relics from past glories, only Brown’s contract is up after this season – and at 37 years old it’s fair to ask if he still has a place with the Kings going forward or even if his career is now over after this season.
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I don’t know if the Kings will truly take a step forward until these contracts are off the books. It’s unlikely another team will take them off the Kings’ hands, but never say never. Jim Benning got suckered into taking one of the worst contracts in hockey off of the Arizona Coyote’s books, so anything’s possible.
At any rate, with this crazy a mixture of greenhorns and past their prime players, I don’t think the LA Kings have the right mix of players to make much noise in the playoffs. The greenhorns won’t have the experience of playing playoff hockey just yet and the old guard won’t have much gas left in the task to go on another long playoff run.
What they’re missing is exactly what the Edmonton Oilers possess – a lot of guys in the prime of their careers and a roster that’s hungry to succeed. The Oilers have a score to settle with the rest of the league after being defeated in the play-in round two seasons ago by Chicago and last season in the first round by Winnipeg.
There’s no question in my mind which team is hungrier and will want it more. Playoff hockey tightens up significantly, oftentimes that small margin of error to play in the regular season gets even smaller in the playoffs.
I believe the Oilers match up well with the Kings, and if they’re playing the way they’ve been playing as of late they should defeat them easily.
The Kings won’t go quietly, of course, and might take a game or two, but IMO the Edmonton Oilers will come out as the victors in the end.
Let’s take a look at each team and see how they compare.
Forwards
Top six forward wise the Edmonton Oilers have two of the three best scorers in the league on their roster. The McDrai duo are both in their prime producing years and will be a handful for the Kings the entire series. They’re flanked on the wings by two great complimentary players in JP the Bison King and Kailer Yamamoto on the right side. Both of these players are physical guys who open up the ice for their superstar centers, and both have proven to be great players in the corners and in JP’s case as a net front presence. Yamamoto also plays on both special teams. At the time of this writing Yamamoto is also close to cracking the 20 goal mark with 18. He’s already shattered his career high in both goals and points weeks ago and we’re now seeing if he can take even more heat off of the dynamic duo by cracking the 20 goal mark for the first time in his career.
On the left side the top six is rounded out by Zack Hyman, offseason free agent signing extraordinaire, another guy who isn’t afraid to mix it up physically and is also having a career year in both goals and points. He’s fit like a glove in our top six all season long. Finishing it up is the most recent arrival in NHL bad boy Evander Kane, who has kept his nose clean off the ice and proven to be a fantastic fit on it. He’s only played here for 34 games and in that time has 16 – yes, 16! – goals. If he keeps going at the torrid pace he’s on right now, he’ll crack the 20 goal mark for the eighth time in his career – in a record low 44 games played for him. Wow.
It’s also worth pointing out that not only that, but these players are all pretty solid defensively, especially as of late. Puljujarvi, McDavid, and Draisaitl in particular are all close or above the +20 mark on the season, which is phenomenal and certainly a nice change of pace from the cringeworthy +/- stats we saw from this team in their rebuilding years.
The Kings have a solid top six but they just can’t match that kind of firepower. Kopitar – who’s still productive at age 34 for the Kings (lucky for them and his $10 million cap hit…) has 18 goals and 61 points in 74 games. The team will have to watch him as he might still burn the Oilers for a goal or two. The other center is Philip Danault, a free agent signing rescued from the dumpster fire of Montreal who has found a new gear in LA – a new career high of 21 goals and 44 points. Good players, just not the best in the league like the Oilers have.
The wingers for the Kings are sniper Adrian Kempe, having a career year with 32 goals. However, it’s worth noting that he only has four games of playoff experience to his game, five seasons ago in which his guns fell silent. While that’s not to say he’ll duplicate that lack of offence again, it doesn’t bode well for the Kings. Then there’s Viktor Arvidsson, another guy signed in free agency last offseason by the Kings who is having a bit of a career renaissance in LA, cracking the 20 goal mark with that exact number at this point for the first time in three seasons. Then there’s complementary winger Alex Iafallo, a guy who puts up solid if unspectacular numbers – in five seasons he has yet to crack the 20 goal mark. Rounding out their top six is normal bottom six player Trevor Moore subbing in for the injured Dustin Brown.
The bottom six forward group goes to the Oilers no question. This is where we see a lack of depth in the Kings organization and a much healthier roster here in Edmonton as a comparison.
The Kings in the bottom six are led by 19 year old 2nd overall pick phenom Quinton Byfield, who is playing in his first full NHL season and has not only struggled with injury this season having played only 34 games for the team up to this point, but as you would expect for a raw 19 year old hasn’t done too much, having only put up 5-3-8 in those 34 games. At least the Kings have the good sense to give him softer competition in the bottom six as they groom him to take over for Kopitar eventually. The other center is fourth liner Blake Lizotte, a good soldier who’s defensively responsible (+11 on the season) and has put up 8 goals and 19 points on the season, pretty good for a fourth liner. The starboard side wingers are Rasmus Kupari, who has put up 12 points in 51 games and fingers crossed for him he can get to the third line minimum of 16 by season’s end. The fourth line guy is Carl Grundstrom, 14 points in 50 games, solid numbers for a fourth liner.
The left side? Gabriel Vilardi taking Moore’s normal spot on the third line left wing. Only three goals in 21 games….meh. On the fourth line is physical veteran guy Brendan Lemieux, he’s put up 11 points in 46 games, par for the course for a fourth liner.
But, still the Edmonton Oilers have the LA Kings beat here as well.
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The normal third line of the Edmonton Oilers is quite formidable, centered by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who – let’s be honest – on most teams could easily be the second line center if not the first. He has functioned as the second line center/winger when injury strikes. He’s also an integral part of the PP. Then on his port side we have Warren Foegele, who has 25 points on the year with 10 games left to go at the time of this writing. He’s at a team worst -9 on the year, which is a bit concerning, but he’s been much better defensively as of late. The other normal guy is Derek Ryan, who is a mere point away from the magical threshold of 20, the mark that shows legit secondary scoring numbers for a third liner.
The fourth line is often in flux, which is normal, but centering that we have 22 year old youngster Ryan Mcleod who appears to be rounding into form with 18 points. Then there’s the overpaid Zack Kassian, who despite his recent tendency to be invisible for large portions of the season, nonetheless is a passable fourth liner with 16 points. Trade deadline pickup Derrick Brassard rounds out the line, and he has two goals in the nine games he’s played here to go along with the six goals and 16 points he put with Philly on the season prior to the trade.
Defense
On D, I’d say the Oilers have better depth there too.
Drew Doughty is having a career renaissance this season, putting up 31 points in 39 games, but unfortunately for the Kings he’s out for the remainder of the season.
In his place is Troy Stecher, acquired from Detroit at the deadline, a generic vanilla player who’s put up goose eggs for points so far in 10 games. He lefty partner is Matt Roy, who has 17 points on the season. OK, but nothing to write home about.
LA’s second pairing is youngster Tobias Bjornfot and rookie phenom Sean Durzi. Durzi is having a phenomenal rookie season with 26 points, while Bjornfot has a mere 8 with a total of 105 NHL games so far in his career. I don’t expect this pairing to have much of an impact in the playoffs due to a lack of experience. The bottom pairing is occupied by veteran Olli Maata, who’s won two Cups with Pittsburgh in his career. He’s not the same player he once and has turned fairly vanilla, with seven points on the year. Ditto for his partner Jordan Spence, who has five points on the year.
The Edmonton Oilers counter with Darnell Nurse on the top pairing, who has 33 points, more than any other Kings D right now. His partner is Cody Ceci, who was nicknamed a pylon in past seasons but is now a defensive phenom, with a +12 and 25 points this season (fun fact – Ceci is only two points away from a new career high). I guarantee you this pairing will get major minutes in the playoffs and if they do officially end up drawing LA they should do very well against them.
The second pairing is just as impressive. It’s only been put together in the last couple of weeks, but whatever voodoo Jay Woodcroft has done with them he should continue. Bouchard only has 93 NHL games to his name, but he’s broken through in a big way this year, putting up 38 points with time to spare in the season.
That’s 28th in the league right now, a fantastic achievement for a 22 year old playing the hardest position in the NHL. His partner is veteran Duncan Keith, who can no longer play regularly on the top pairing but is nonetheless putting up a solid season, +8 on the year and 19 points already. One more and he’ll have met my expectations for offence this year. He’s been playing his best hockey of the season as of late – and there’s a good chance he’ll play a bigger role in the playoffs then we anticipated. He may be 38 but he’s playing like a guy who’s six years younger.
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The third pairing is anchored by Tyson Barrie, who has moved back and forth between the second and third pairings for most of the season, but has been stationed on the third as of late. He’s got 35 points this year, which while down from the 48 points he put up last year to lead the league is still an impressive total, especially for a guy who has spent so much time on the third pairing this year. He’s known as a PP quarterback, and he plays that role on the first unit PP here. I guess that explains why half his goals and just over half of his points have come on the PP.
One other noteworthy stat about Barrie – ever since Dave Manson joined the coaching staff from Bakersfield Barrie’s defensive stats have improved immensely – to the point where he’s +2 on the season, the third best mark of his career. Barrie was largely known as a guy who contributed enough offence that you could overlook his defensive shortcomings, but those shortcomings have disappeared as of late.
His partner is trade deadline pickup Brett Kulak, who has fit on the third pairing like a glove after we rescued him from Montreal. Even in just nine games with the team he already has 1-3-4 in those nine games.
That gives the Edmonton Oilers three puck movers and three stay at home guys, one on each pairing. Even if somebody gets injured, the Oilers have third pairing guy Kris Russell waiting in the wings, as well as prospects Philip Broberg and Markus Niemelainen, both of whom didn’t look out of place on the roster when called up to sub in for injuries or COVID protocols.
Even when healthy, the Kings just can’t compete with that – and having Drew Doughty out with injury only makes it that much worse.
The Kings also have four other players out injured right now – Sean Walker, Andreas Athanasiou, Mikey Anderson, and Blake Lizotte besides Doughty and Brown.
Goaltenders
Between the pipes it’s the same story, although to be fair this is where the two teams might be closest.
For the Kings they have relic Jonathan Quick, who at this point is now no more than an average goalie with a .908 sv% and 2.67 GAA. To be fair, that’s the best numbers he’s put up in four seasons, but that’s not exactly a high barometer.
His partner is Cal Peterson, who has only 89 NHL games to his name and whose sv% has declined every year in the league, to the point where he’s now at his career low of .899 – just below the mark of an average NHL goalie. I suspect Quick will play the playoffs for the Kings, but if he gets injured the Kings will be in trouble as Peterson has never played a single playoff game in his career so far.
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You might ask how the Edmonton Oilers can counter with two average goalies in Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen, both of whom have similar numbers on the season and neither of whom have a GAA below 3.0.
Well, the truth is both goalies have become hot as of late. Koskinen has only lost once in his last seven starts at the time of this writing, and ditto for Smith.
Koskinen doesn’t have much of a track record in the playoffs but Smith has a .931 sv% in 29 career playoff starts. Nonetheless, don’t be surprised if Smith and Koskinen still tandem throughout the playoffs. Why not use both goalies in tandem if both are hot, at least in the first round?
Quick, meanwhile, has won six of his last nine starts but in the three losses has given up five, three, and three goals. I don’t envy Kings head coach Todd McLellan the question of who to start in the playoffs because it sure seems like a case of pick your poison. Woodcroft, on the other hand, has a much more pleasant decision to make, one that doesn’t seem to have a wrong answer.
Edge goes to the Oilers between the pipes too.
The Bottom Line
If the Kings do end up winning – It’s because they’ll have gotten healthy and have somehow been able to stymie the firepower of the Oilers forwards and d corps
If the Edmonton Oilers do end up winning – As expected, it’s because they’re the hotter team going into the playoffs and are getting contributions from up and down the roster and Smith and Koskinen continue their hot play in net
My pick for who would win this series – Edmonton Oilers