Oilers Sign Ryan Fanti: The Domino Effect

Earlier this week the Oilers announced they had inked one of the top NCAA college free agents, Ryan Fanti, to a contract for the rest of this year plus the next two. The contract is on an amateur tryout, or ATO, for the rest of this season and the next two after that on a two way contract for $762,500 per season (NHL salary).

The Oilers haven’t gone the college free agent route in awhile, not since the decade of darkness by my count, when their prospect pool was still very shallow due to horrible drafting for most of the franchise’s existence.

Like most people I don’t have insider information to share, but I believe the Oilers may have gone this route for a couple of reasons:  1) This year’s draft is poised to be not very deep, especially in comparison to 2023 which is apparently very deep. If I had to guess the Oilers scouting department took a look at the names from Central Scouting and decided nobody was worth pursuing in the draft. 2) They’ll need to replace both goaltenders within the next two seasons as both are close to the age when NHLers typically drop off a cliff and thus both will need to be replaced.

In this regard, Fanti doesn’t have much opposition in his way as he only has Stuart Skinner to leap over, and there’s a good chance he could challenge for a spot after a season in Bakersfield, if his play at the pro ranks follows the same quick learning pattern as his college years (which of course is no guarantee).

If you look at the incumbents in Bakersfield right now – Olivier Rodrigue and Ilya Konovalov – neither of them are close to NHL ready yet as both have spent either one or two seasons on the farm and neither has managed a sv% above .900 yet in the North American pros. Both of them will need more seasoning, which isn’t all that unusual for goaltenders who are 21 and 23 respectively.

The advantage of college free agents is they typically come to the NHL as more of a finished product as a human being, largely at the height and weight that they’ll be at for most of their careers. They’ve also gotten the partying out of their systems, which is something that 18 and 19 year olds are susceptible to, and are ready to get on with their lives.

So, in theory at least, Fanti has a chance to leapfrog past at least two out of three prospects right away. Between the lack of NHL ready competition, and the combination of the forward and defence skaters in front of him, I’m not surprised Fanti chose the Oilers out of other teams who came calling to him. Edmonton represents his chance for a career in the show the quickest out of more established tandems in the NHL.

But even more than the individual, I believe the signing of Fanti gives us a clue as to what dominoes will fall next in the organization. This is why what would normally be more of an afterthought signing, becomes more significant. Let’s go through that now.

If Stuart Skinner has taught us anything this season, I believe it’s that he is NHL ready now. However, with Koskinen having the hot hand right now and Smith getting his game as well, there’s just no room for him on the roster right now.

But next season, when Koskinen’s contract is up? There’s an open spot on the roster, and if Skinner has a good training camp he just might be the next guy. Skinner’s timing couldn’t have been better as he can immediately step in and fill the vacuum and save the team a whole lot of cap space in the process, being that he has another year left on his contract for $750,000. That’s $3.75 million less than Koskinen is making this season.

You better believe the Oilers could use that cap space elsewhere on the roster. Now you know the benefit of having prospects ready to step in for the team.

If Fanti takes over for Smith two seasons from now and one of Konovalov or Rodrigue is ready after that, then it opens up possibilities for dealing a goalie from a position of strength.

And considering Skinner’s past I’m not willing to write off either of Konovalov or Rodrigue despite their lackluster numbers just yet.

Remember, Skinner himself was a terrible goalie for his first two pro seasons, bouncing around between the ECHL and AHL, not really succeeding anywhere.

It appeared he was headed for the scrap heap until Dave Tippett surprisingly called him up for a game against what at the time was one of the worst teams in the league in Ottawa, and although there’s obviously improvements still to be made in an 8-5 win, it nonetheless seemed to be a shot in the arm for Skinner’s career.

After that Skinner went on a tear, and has been one of the AHL’s top three goalies for the past season and a half or so.

This season, between covid and injuries the Oilers were forced to call up Skinner more than they wanted to, but he responded when called upon, putting up a .913 sv% and a 2.62 GAA, both of which are miles ahead of what Koskinen and Smith have done this season in terms of stats.

He’s made excellent progress, and I think he’s ready to take the leap to full time NHLer, unless he completely implodes between now and next season. He’s already won championships in Bakersfield that he’s played a key role in, what’s left for him to accomplish in the minors? What does he have left to learn there? I don’t know.

I could be wrong of course, but I have a feeling our tandem next year will be Smith-Skinner. You read it here first.

Skinner’s promotion, of course, means there’s a roster spot in the minors to be had for next year. The whole reason Fanti is on an amateur tryout this year is there’s less pressure on him and more familiarity for him as he goes into his first paid hockey gig next season.

If all goes well Fanti could leapfrog to the top of the heap in short order just like Skinner did last season. Konovalov and Rodrigue will still have someone else pushing them both, it’ll just be a different guy with a different name.

If Skinner wasn’t ready for prime time and still needed more seasoning, you really think the Oilers would sign another guy to crowd the crease in the minor leagues? Unlikely. Skinner is ready to take over for Koskinen next year, and that opens up a spot in the minors – enter Fanti.

Oh, and he already has a moustache with a Twitter account, just like Ryan Smyth’s mullet did.

I’ve alluded to this in the past two slides, but Skinner is the only one able to hold his head above water in the minor leagues. The Oilers had high hopes for Olivier Rodrigue, drafted in the second round of 2018, and Ilya Konovalov, drafted in the third round in 2019, and hyped as the best Russian goalie available in that draft, having played four seasons already in the KHL and putting up elite stats in three of those four seasons.

The Oilers hadn’t drafted goalies that high that actually covered the bet since taking Devan Dubnyk 14th overall in the 1st round in 2004. Prior to that you’d have to go back to 1981 and Grant Fuhr for any goalie that had any staying power in the NHL. Every other goalie drafted in between either never made the show or flamed out quickly in short order.

Although I doubt the organization has given up on either guy so quickly, there’s no doubt neither Rodrigue nor Konovalov has gotten off to a good start in Bakersfield. There’s a reason Skinner has played the majority of the games when he’s down there – neither Rodrigue nor Konovalov have managed a sv% over .900 or a GAA below 2.5 in any of the AHL games they’ve played.

That being said, both guys are signed for next season and neither have hit the five year mark in their pro careers just yet. The sample size is much too small to give up on either player at this point – Konovalov has a mere 16 North American pro games to his credit this season and Rodrigue has 24 AHL games and another nine in the ECHL (where he’s barely been an average goalie so far). Time has a way of giving experience, and rarely does any NHL player develop in a straight line.

That being said, with an immediate need for younger goaltenders and one prospect likely departing the minors after the season, there’s a need for someone else to push the two established guys for playing time, which is where Fanti comes in.

There’s no danger to their careers just yet, but if they don’t show some improvement there might be in the near future.

Only time will tell whether at least one of them hits or whether they become the next Shane Starrett. Fanti might have the same kind of career as well, you never know.

Nonetheless, if Skinner graduates as expected, next season represents the best possible time for one of Konovalov or Rodrigue to emerge as a starter in the AHL. If they struggle again, they’ll once again be playing either in the ECHL or as second banana to another goalie who produces more.

Fanti was signed in part to push Konovalov and Rodrigue for playing time in the minors. Let’s see what happens.