Let’s Break Down The Edmonton Oilers Goaltending
The main talking point of the Edmonton Oilers this season has been the goaltending. Whether it was the conversation of trading for a better goalie, or which goalie should start on a given night. This season the Edmonton Oilers goaltending has been a bit of a three headed monster, unfortunately the monster is not a scary one to face.
While Mike Smith was injured for the majority of the start of the season Mikko Koskinen and Stuart Skinner handled the load fairly well for the first few months. Then came the month of December. In December the Oilers went 3-7-1.
In the 20 games before December the Oilers goals against average (GAA) was 3 with a record of 15-5. In the month of December the GAA was 3.7, so they were allowing almost one more goal per game. Since December has ended the GAA is back down to 3.2 and a record of 19-13-4. So is no surprise when the Oilers allow less goals, they win more.
So far this season the goaltending numbers for the Edmonton Oilers hasn’t been good. The weird thing is that the goalie with the best numbers is currently starting games in the AHL. At some point the coach/management of this team need to settle on what goalie is going to be the starter going down the stretch.
Who will be the Edmonton Oilers starter the rest of the season and in the playoffs?
This is the million dollar question for Oiler fans right now. No one seems to be able to agree on what is the right answer. Most people at least want to take a look at Skinner as the starter for the NHL club. If they do that which of the veteran goalies becomes the 3rd string tender. The stats would say Smith would be at the bottom.
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This team hasn’t been much for looking at stats when choosing their starter in the past. I think the team looks at which goalie has the potential to be better. I think Mike Smith has a higher ceiling of play than Koskinen, but also has a lower floor and average so far this season. The thing with Koskinen is more times than not you know what you are getting.
I can’t read the future about who Jay Woodcroft will start moving forward, but I can look at some numbers and take a stab on what is going to happen.
Mikko Koskinen to me is the front runner for the goalie that will be the starting goalie moving forward. Of the two veterans he has been the more reliable goalie this season. I find when the Oilers play Koskinen he will constantly give you around a 0.900 SV%.
| Goal | Goal | Goal | Goal | Goal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Date | G | Opp | GA | SA | SV | SV% | SO | PIM | TOI | |
| 1 | 2021-10-19 | 1 | ANA | W | 1 | 21 | 20 | .952 | 0 | 0 | 27:42 |
| 2 | 2021-10-21 | 2 | ARI | W | 1 | 28 | 27 | .964 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 3 | 2021-10-22 | 3 | VEG | W | 3 | 39 | 36 | .923 | 0 | 0 | 59:57 |
| 4 | 2021-10-27 | 4 | PHI | L | 4 | 33 | 29 | .879 | 0 | 0 | 58:07 |
| 5 | 2021-10-30 | 5 | VAN | W | 1 | 30 | 29 | .967 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 6 | 2021-11-01 | 6 | SEA | W | 2 | 29 | 27 | .931 | 0 | 0 | 59:35 |
| 7 | 2021-11-03 | 7 | NSH | W | 2 | 33 | 31 | .939 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 8 | 2021-11-05 | 8 | NYR | W | 5 | 25 | 20 | .800 | 0 | 0 | 63:27 |
| 9 | 2021-11-11 | 9 | BOS | W | 3 | 29 | 26 | .897 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 10 | 2021-11-14 | 10 | STL | W | 4 | 39 | 35 | .897 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 11 | 2021-11-16 | 11 | WPG | L | 4 | 26 | 22 | .846 | 0 | 0 | 39:09 |
| 12 | 2021-11-24 | 12 | ARI | W | 3 | 27 | 24 | .889 | 0 | 0 | 59:40 |
| 13 | 2021-11-27 | 13 | VEG | W | 2 | 38 | 36 | .947 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 14 | 2021-12-01 | 14 | PIT | W | 2 | 34 | 32 | .941 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 15 | 2021-12-05 | 15 | LAK | L | 5 | 40 | 35 | .875 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 16 | 2021-12-07 | 16 | MIN | L | 4 | 26 | 22 | .846 | 0 | 0 | 59:56 |
| 17 | 2021-12-11 | 17 | CAR | L | 3 | 31 | 28 | .903 | 0 | 0 | 57:37 |
| 18 | 2021-12-14 | 18 | TOR | L | 5 | 25 | 20 | .800 | 0 | 0 | 59:23 |
| 19 | 2022-01-01 | 19 | NYI | L-OT | 3 | 29 | 26 | .897 | 0 | 0 | 63:52 |
| 20 | 2022-01-03 | 20 | NYR | L | 4 | 28 | 24 | .857 | 0 | 2 | 60:00 |
| Rk | Date | G | Opp | GA | SA | SV | SV% | SO | PIM | TOI | |
| 21 | 2022-01-20 | 21 | FLA | L | 6 | 28 | 22 | .786 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 22 | 2022-01-22 | 22 | CGY | W | 3 | 47 | 44 | .936 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 23 | 2022-01-25 | 23 | VAN | W | 2 | 27 | 25 | .926 | 0 | 0 | 64:20 |
| 24 | 2022-01-27 | 24 | NSH | W | 2 | 30 | 28 | .933 | 0 | 0 | 64:53 |
| 25 | 2022-01-31 | 25 | OTT | L-OT | 3 | 31 | 28 | .903 | 0 | 0 | 64:02 |
| 26 | 2022-02-02 | 26 | WSH | W | 3 | 27 | 24 | .889 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 27 | 2022-02-19 | 27 | WPG | W | 2 | 24 | 22 | .917 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 28 | 2022-02-20 | 28 | MIN | L | 3 | 15 | 12 | .800 | 0 | 0 | 46:17 |
| 29 | 2022-02-26 | 29 | FLA | W | 3 | 47 | 44 | .936 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 30 | 2022-03-01 | 30 | PHI | W | 0 | 39 | 39 | 1.000 | 1 | 2 | 60:00 |
| 31 | 2022-03-03 | 31 | CHI | L-OT | 4 | 32 | 28 | .875 | 0 | 0 | 61:38 |
| 32 | 2022-03-07 | 32 | CGY | L | 3 | 29 | 26 | .897 | 0 | 0 | 58:05 |
| 33 | 2022-03-09 | 33 | WSH | W | 3 | 32 | 29 | .906 | 0 | 0 | 63:27 |
| 34 | 2022-03-12 | 34 | TBL | W | 1 | 32 | 31 | .969 | 0 | 0 | 59:21 |
| 35 | 2022-03-15 | 35 | DET | W | 5 | 35 | 30 | .857 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 36 | 2022-03-19 | 36 | NJD | W | 3 | 28 | 25 | .893 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 37 | 2022-03-22 | 37 | DAL | L | 4 | 27 | 23 | .852 | 0 | 0 | 58:42 |
| 38 | 2022-03-26 | 38 | CGY | L | 5 | 12 | 7 | .583 | 0 | 0 | 25:06 |
| 39 | 2022-03-28 | 39 | ARI | W | 1 | 32 | 31 | .969 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
Provided by Hockey-Reference.com
Generated 3/29/2022.
Koskinen has started in 37 games so far this season, in those 37 games he has won 24 of them. That equals a win percentage of 65%. If you compare this to the other Edmonton Oilers goalies, Smith, 39% and Skinner, 50%, you can see why I would think that Koskinen currently will give this team the best chance to win on a regular basis.
The main issue with Koskinen is his save percentages. In the 39 games he has appeared in he has been below a 0.900% SV% 19 times, which is 49% of the time. When you put Koskinen out there, the chance he steals you a game is low.
On the other side of that point, he may not make many saves, but in 26 of his appearances he has let in 3 or less goals. In those 26 games they Oilers only lost 5 of those games. As much as you would like his stats to be better, the most important stat is wins and Mikko Koskinen gets the Edmonton Oilers the most wins.
Mike Smith is a giant question mark for me moving forward this season. Unlike Koskinen, when you start Smith you have no idea what you are getting. He has been all over the place in his 19 appearances. He goes from lights out good one night to terrible the next.
| Goal | Goal | Goal | Goal | Goal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Date | G | Opp | GA | SA | SV | SV% | SO | PIM | TOI | |
| 1 | 2021-10-13 | 1 | VAN | W | 2 | 38 | 36 | .947 | 0 | 0 | 65:00 |
| 2 | 2021-10-16 | 2 | CGY | W | 2 | 47 | 45 | .957 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 3 | 2021-10-19 | 3 | ANA | W | 4 | 15 | 11 | .733 | 0 | 0 | 31:04 |
| 4 | 2021-12-29 | 4 | STL | L | 4 | 33 | 29 | .879 | 0 | 0 | 57:03 |
| 5 | 2021-12-31 | 5 | NJD | L-OT | 6 | 41 | 35 | .854 | 0 | 0 | 62:55 |
| 6 | 2022-01-05 | 6 | TOR | L | 3 | 32 | 29 | .906 | 0 | 0 | 58:40 |
| 7 | 2022-02-08 | 7 | VEG | L | 4 | 28 | 24 | .857 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 8 | 2022-02-09 | 8 | CHI | L | 4 | 30 | 26 | .867 | 0 | 0 | 59:55 |
| 9 | 2022-02-11 | 9 | NYI | W | 1 | 38 | 37 | .974 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 10 | 2022-02-15 | 10 | LAK | W | 2 | 32 | 30 | .938 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 11 | 2022-02-17 | 11 | ANA | W | 3 | 30 | 27 | .900 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 12 | 2022-02-20 | 12 | MIN | L | 4 | 7 | 3 | .429 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| 13 | 2022-02-23 | 13 | TBL | L | 4 | 22 | 18 | .818 | 0 | 0 | 58:13 |
| 14 | 2022-02-27 | 14 | CAR | L | 2 | 29 | 27 | .931 | 0 | 0 | 57:47 |
| 15 | 2022-03-05 | 15 | MTL | L | 4 | 28 | 24 | .857 | 0 | 2 | 59:43 |
| 16 | 2022-03-17 | 16 | BUF | W | 1 | 28 | 27 | .964 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 17 | 2022-03-21 | 17 | COL | L-OT | 3 | 31 | 28 | .903 | 0 | 0 | 60:35 |
| 18 | 2022-03-24 | 18 | SJS | W | 2 | 30 | 28 | .933 | 0 | 2 | 60:00 |
| 19 | 2022-03-26 | 19 | CGY | L | 4 | 26 | 22 | .846 | 0 | 2 | 34:34 |
Provided by Hockey-Reference.com:
Generated 3/29/2022.
Smith has started in 18 games so far this season, in those 18 games he has won 7 of them. That equals a win percentage of 39%. When comparing that to the other goalies that is the worst. This is why I think Smith should be the 3rd goalie in the depth chart.
In his 19 games he played in he was below 0.900SV% 9 times, which is 47% of his appearances. This is better than Mikko Koskinen, but the Smith has a higher goals against average in all his games played and the games are won by goals for/against.
If Smith can get hot down the stretch he can move up my list quickly. I believe he has the skills to be the best goalie on this team, he just isn’t showing it right now. It would really benefit the Edmonton Oilers if they can get an in the zone Mike Smith.
Stuart Skinner is currently thriving in the AHL. In 24 games played he is has a GAA of 2.26 and a SV% of 0.920. Those are excellent numbers to have over that big of a sample size. This is in the AHL though, not the NHL. In the NHL the players are better and the game is faster. I don’t expect him to have those numbers if he gets called up to the NHL.
Statistically, Skinner has the best numbers of the three goalies. If the Edmonton Oilers want to give Skinner a fair chance to take the starting role for the end of the season they will need to get him starts soon. You don’t want him to come in and play when your team is in a do or die spot. Let him get used to the speed of the NHL before the playoffs.
| Goal | Goal | Goal | Goal | Goal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Date | G | Opp | GA | SA | SV | SV% | SO | PIM | TOI | |
| 1 | 2021-11-09 | 1 | DET | L | 3 | 38 | 35 | .921 | 0 | 0 | 58:20 |
| 2 | 2021-11-12 | 2 | BUF | L | 3 | 23 | 20 | .870 | 0 | 0 | 57:48 |
| 3 | 2021-11-16 | 3 | WPG | L | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 |
| 4 | 2021-11-18 | 4 | WPG | W | 1 | 47 | 46 | .979 | 0 | 0 | 64:42 |
| 5 | 2021-11-20 | 5 | CHI | W | 2 | 31 | 29 | .935 | 0 | 0 | 59:48 |
| 6 | 2021-11-23 | 6 | DAL | L | 4 | 33 | 29 | .879 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 7 | 2021-12-03 | 7 | SEA | L | 4 | 34 | 30 | .882 | 0 | 0 | 58:05 |
| 8 | 2021-12-09 | 8 | BOS | L | 3 | 30 | 27 | .900 | 0 | 0 | 57:43 |
| 9 | 2021-12-16 | 9 | CBJ | W | 2 | 38 | 36 | .947 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 10 | 2021-12-18 | 10 | SEA | W | 3 | 17 | 14 | .824 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 11 | 2022-01-15 | 11 | OTT | L | 5 | 25 | 20 | .800 | 0 | 0 | 58:55 |
| 12 | 2022-01-29 | 12 | MTL | W | 2 | 23 | 21 | .913 | 0 | 0 | 60:00 |
| 13 | 2022-02-14 | 13 | SJS | W | 0 | 20 | 20 | 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 59:46 |
Provided by Hockey-Reference.com:
Generated 3/29/2022.
Skinner is the only Edmonton goalie not to get pulled this season. In his 12 starts he has won 6 of them. He won half the games he started, that puts him between Koskinen and Smith. In his 13 games played he had a SV% less than 0.900 5 times, 38% of his starts he is below the 90% mark. That is the best out of the three goalies.
The one problem with Skinner is he is currently in the AHL with two veteran goalies ahead of him. As much as we all think that Skinner should be getting some starts in the NHL, he has to jump two goalies. I think in order for him to get a look, either Koskinen or Smith will need to have a streak where lose multiple games in a row in which they play bad.
In My Opinion
I think Smith has a shorter leash than Koskinen does. If Smith has two bad starts coming up, I think he will sitting in the press box watching Skinner sit in his spot. I hope it doesn’t happen, because as mentioned above I think Smith is the goalie with the highest ceiling.
If the Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs, they will need their goalies to bring their A game if they want to go on a run. I honestly don’t care which goalie it is, but if they can take the Edmonton Oilers to the conference finals I am going to be a very happy fan.
Next. Do the Edmonton Oilers need Zack Kassian anymore?. dark