Going “all in”

I’ve seen a large contingent of Edmonton Oilers fans saying the Oilers need to go “all in” because it’s year seven of Connor McDavid‘s contract.

This is an overly simplistic view of where the Edmonton Oilers are as a franchise and is exhibit A as to why fans don’t run the team and never will.

Whoever thinks this out there is incredibly naive and unaware of how doing business in the NHL works.

Simply put, the Edmonton Oilers are not yet in a state where they can start going all in, mortgaging the future for the present to put them over the top.

They still need the future to develop first because they’re not yet a cup contender. Playoff contender, absolutely, but not cup contender.

Those are two very distinct states of a franchise – and if your GM doesn’t have a proper pulse on the franchise it can turn things sideways very quickly.

We have multiple historical and current precedents to this.

The San Jose Sharks at the beginning of the 2000s, thanks to a combination of shrewd drafting and good picks and trades, were one of the best teams in the league.

Then they started perpetually mortgaging the future, and although it got them one appearance in the cup Finals, in 2016, that’s all they have to show for their efforts. That team has been around since 1991 and they still haven’t won a single cup. None of the moves they made put them over the top, and they traded away a lot of draft picks in the process. To make things worse, San Jose bought into the myth that for sustained success you have to keep the band together.

Now what they have for their efforts are decent forward pieces in Logan Couture and Timo Meier whose efforts will be undone by the fact that they haven’t drafted a decent goalie, and three boat anchor contracts on D in Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and the pickle man Marc-Edward Vlasic. Even if they have the cap space for a starting goalie, why would one willingly go to such a dumpster fire of a team?

All three are producing individually to a certain extent but none of them are living up to their contracts, and are signed for another three, five, and four seasons respectively. Burns is 37 now and is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

I’m willing to bet the owners are simply waiting for those three contracts to expire before they fire Doug Wilson, because right now their cap situation is one of the worst in the league, so very few other out of work GMs would want to touch it.

They’re sixth in the division this year, three spots below the Edmonton Oilers.

Do you want the Edmonton Oilers to turn into the Sharks? I don’t.

Then there’s the Vegas Golden Knights, who came out of nowhere to get to the Stanley Cup finals in their first year of existence only to fall off the map after that.

Since then, they’ve lost their grip on the division lead as of this season. Although it remains to be seen how the acquisition of Jack Eichel will determine their fortunes, they’ve suffered so many injuries that even if they do make the playoffs it’ll be as a wildcard team that’s not bound to go far.

Not to mention they’ve invested just under $20 million of cap space between the acquisition of Eichel and signing Alex Pietrangelo as a free agent. The latter’s contract is a bit worrisome as he’s 32 and signed until he’s 38. Eichel might have a huge cap hit but he’s still young enough that he can make an impact, albeit with an injury history that is a bit of baggage that comes with the player.

Meanwhile, for their efforts the Knights are going to be missing their own first, third, and fourth round picks this year, and one of their first or second round picks next year.

They’re also limping along being over $11 million over the cap. If it weren’t for the fact that Mark Stone’s contract is taking up most of that they’d be in trouble. It’s not even a career ender so who knows what’ll happen when they have to pay him again?

The Minnesota Wild also went all in with big money contracts to Zack Parise and Ryan Suter in the 2012 offseason, and in the last 10 years what did they get for their efforts? 0 Cup Finals appearances, never mind a winner. They were playoff contenders much like the Oilers are now, but they never did take the next step to Cup contenders.

So before declaring that the Edmonton Oilers should go “all in,” take a step back and remember what it means. It means high risk. It means big money. It means there’s no guaranteed chance of success. It means Cap hell whether you’re right or wrong, and that can delve into having to make salary dump moves that means an exit of valuable quality of player development. It means setting the franchise’s development back for years if you’re wrong.

Most of all, if you’re wrong it means guaranteed failure for the franchise for years to come.

Does that sound like a good idea?