Going “all in”

Mar 26, 2022; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) skates during the warmup period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 26, 2022; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) skates during the warmup period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
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I’ve seen a large contingent of Edmonton Oilers fans saying the Oilers need to go “all in” because it’s year seven of Connor McDavid‘s contract.

This is an overly simplistic view of where the Edmonton Oilers are as a franchise and is exhibit A as to why fans don’t run the team and never will.

Whoever thinks this out there is incredibly naive and unaware of how doing business in the NHL works.

Simply put, the Edmonton Oilers are not yet in a state where they can start going all in, mortgaging the future for the present to put them over the top.

They still need the future to develop first because they’re not yet a cup contender. Playoff contender, absolutely, but not cup contender.

Those are two very distinct states of a franchise – and if your GM doesn’t have a proper pulse on the franchise it can turn things sideways very quickly.

We have multiple historical and current precedents to this.

The San Jose Sharks at the beginning of the 2000s, thanks to a combination of shrewd drafting and good picks and trades, were one of the best teams in the league.

Then they started perpetually mortgaging the future, and although it got them one appearance in the cup Finals, in 2016, that’s all they have to show for their efforts. That team has been around since 1991 and they still haven’t won a single cup. None of the moves they made put them over the top, and they traded away a lot of draft picks in the process. To make things worse, San Jose bought into the myth that for sustained success you have to keep the band together.

Now what they have for their efforts are decent forward pieces in Logan Couture and Timo Meier whose efforts will be undone by the fact that they haven’t drafted a decent goalie, and three boat anchor contracts on D in Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, and the pickle man Marc-Edward Vlasic. Even if they have the cap space for a starting goalie, why would one willingly go to such a dumpster fire of a team?

All three are producing individually to a certain extent but none of them are living up to their contracts, and are signed for another three, five, and four seasons respectively. Burns is 37 now and is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.

I’m willing to bet the owners are simply waiting for those three contracts to expire before they fire Doug Wilson, because right now their cap situation is one of the worst in the league, so very few other out of work GMs would want to touch it.

They’re sixth in the division this year, three spots below the Edmonton Oilers.

Do you want the Edmonton Oilers to turn into the Sharks? I don’t.

Then there’s the Vegas Golden Knights, who came out of nowhere to get to the Stanley Cup finals in their first year of existence only to fall off the map after that.

Since then, they’ve lost their grip on the division lead as of this season. Although it remains to be seen how the acquisition of Jack Eichel will determine their fortunes, they’ve suffered so many injuries that even if they do make the playoffs it’ll be as a wildcard team that’s not bound to go far.

Not to mention they’ve invested just under $20 million of cap space between the acquisition of Eichel and signing Alex Pietrangelo as a free agent. The latter’s contract is a bit worrisome as he’s 32 and signed until he’s 38. Eichel might have a huge cap hit but he’s still young enough that he can make an impact, albeit with an injury history that is a bit of baggage that comes with the player.

Meanwhile, for their efforts the Knights are going to be missing their own first, third, and fourth round picks this year, and one of their first or second round picks next year.

They’re also limping along being over $11 million over the cap. If it weren’t for the fact that Mark Stone’s contract is taking up most of that they’d be in trouble. It’s not even a career ender so who knows what’ll happen when they have to pay him again?

The Minnesota Wild also went all in with big money contracts to Zack Parise and Ryan Suter in the 2012 offseason, and in the last 10 years what did they get for their efforts? 0 Cup Finals appearances, never mind a winner. They were playoff contenders much like the Oilers are now, but they never did take the next step to Cup contenders.

So before declaring that the Edmonton Oilers should go “all in,” take a step back and remember what it means. It means high risk. It means big money. It means there’s no guaranteed chance of success. It means Cap hell whether you’re right or wrong, and that can delve into having to make salary dump moves that means an exit of valuable quality of player development. It means setting the franchise’s development back for years if you’re wrong.

Most of all, if you’re wrong it means guaranteed failure for the franchise for years to come.

Does that sound like a good idea?

Edmonton Oilers (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
Edmonton Oilers (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

In Ken Holland we have a guy who has built Cup winners in both the pre and post salary cap era. We have a GM who has built a prospect pipeline between the minors and the NHL team, and has brought a lot of those people with him to Edmonton.

I’m not saying he’s perfect, far from it, but he’s a guy with a past record of success, so if he doesn’t believe now is a good time to go all-in then perhaps we should give him that latitude.

After all, considering the success that Detroit has from the early 90s to the next 20 years after, I’m willing to bet if you ask Holland he’ll tell you he’s trying to establish the same pipeline here that he had in Detroit, so that the Edmonton Oilers can have long term success. This means rather than risking it all for one cup win, we have a little more patience and in the long term we can have two or three cup wins. Or four or five.

The point is that you shouldn’t be concerned with how long the two superstars have been here. You can bet Holland has an open door with the core players, so they’re on board with what he’s doing here. Mcdavid doesn’t like losing, but if he’s on board with the plan and he understands once he takes some time to recover from the losing, the winning is all the more sweeter. You can bet that Mcdavid would rather have multiple cups than just one.

It’s also worth noting that Pittsburgh, Chicago, and LA have all duplicated what Holland did while he was GM of Detroit. Those three teams virtually dominated the league from 2009-2017.

Tampa Bay is doing that right now, having won the last two cups largely to good drafting and shrewd trades and signings (sound familiar?).

Why couldn’t Edmonton be next? There’s no reason it couldn’t happen.

But it’s also important to remember that this team has only in the last couple of seasons recovered from horrible drafting that happened from 1982-2015. That’s a long time for the prospect cupboards to go bare – and is the main reason why the rebuild took 13 years instead of five.

So stop going bipolar Oilers fan – I’ve said that before but I really can’t say it enough. Holland has a decent pulse on his team and the league, and he’s only the second GM in team history with a decent drafting record.

Not to mention he’s only been at the helm for three years.

It’s also important to remember it took Alex Ovechkin 13 years to win a cup in Washington. Mcdavid isn’t close to that yet.

The Oilers are baking their winning cake right now, but it’s still in the oven. Let it bake for awhile longer, and then the victories will taste so much better than if you’d burned the cake on a higher temperature for a shorter period of time.

Next. Let’s Break Down The Edmonton Oilers Goaltending. dark

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