It’s no secret that the Edmonton Oilers goaltending has been a weak spot of the team this year. If it weren’t for Stuart Skinner emerging into the conversation it would’ve been a lot worse this year.
Rumour has it that Ken Holland has been aggressively shopping around for goaltending help. Whether he can get some or not at this point in the season is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t hold my breath unless he’s foolish enough to make a lateral move for a guy who isn’t an upgrade on either Smith or Koskinen.
I may be stating the obvious here, but if the trade deadline passes without some help coming from between the pipes, then we can consider the offseason the time to swap out the Oiler’s goaltenders. That’s where I’m thinking the change will be made.
Thankfully Mikko Koskinen’s contract is up after this season, so it’ll be easy to just let him walk.
I see two realistic potential moves in which the Edmonton Oilers could upgrade their goaltending at a lower cap hit.
Let’s get to the first one – and I’m assuming as a foregone conclusion that Koskinen will walk after the season.
1. Edmonton Oilers trade Mike Smith and a 2022 sixth round pick to the New York Rangers for the negotiating rights to Alexander Georgiev and the Ranger’s 2022 fifth round pick, and then sign him to a three year, $8.0025 million contract ($2.6675 million per season cap hit).
Alexander Georgiev was signed as a free agent from Bulgaria by the New York Rangers back in 2018. He got tapped to be a future starter, putting up elite numbers in his last season in the SM-Liiga before coming to the Rangers on a tryout and making the team.
Then Igor Shesterkin broke out in 2019-20 and Georgiev was relegated to backup. That has to sting a little for Georgiev. There were rumours flying around for a time that Georgiev asked for a trade, but those rumours were quashed late last year.
The Rangers have since signed Shesterkin to just south of $6 million a year for the next three seasons after this one. No contract extension for Georgiev, though, so for the long term the Rangers have made their choice.
Georgiev may not have asked for a trade, but he’s gotta be disappointed at the lack of playing time he’s getting in New York. That certainly would not be an issue here – he’ll get as much playing time as he earns and whatever Jay Woodcroft chooses to give him.
Further incentivizing the Rangers to trade Georgiev is the fact that his numbers have declined in limited playing time, to the point where this season he’s struggling with an .898 sv% and a 2.99 GAA.
So why would the Oilers wants him? Well, he checks off a lot of boxes for the Edmonton Oilers.
He’s 26 years old and has played 115 NHL games, so he’s not coming into the club as a raw rookie and is certainly a younger option in net as opposed to Koskinen or Smith, something the Oilers desperately need at this point in time. At 26 years old he’s in his prime producing years, and it’s reasonable to chalk up his declining numbers to mere development and dissatisfaction with his current organization, even if only privately. Georgiev’s struggles with numbers would be the reason why he wouldn’t cost much to acquire.
More importantly, we’ve seen glimpses of what Georgiev is capable of as his career highs have been a .918 sv% and a 2.71 GAA. The former is close to elite and the latter is at least NHL average.
It’s also worth nothing that even with Georgiev’s warts, he’s still proven to be better than Koskinen in career numbers. Georgiev’s .910 career sv% is better than Koskinen’s .906, that folks is the difference between above and below average. GAA is closer, but the same situation, Georgiev has a 2.95 GAA while Koskinen posts an ugly 3.00. Georgiev’s even had one more shutout then Koskinen has in his career – six to five – in only 115 career games as opposed to Koskinen’s 149.
There is risk in this move for sure, but IMO it’s a calculated risk.
Meanwhile, Mike Smith has spent most of this season injured and frankly at 39 years old it’s realistic to read the tea leaves and believe this could be a new normal for Smith instead of an aberration. NHL players who make it to his age typically get injured easier and heal slower, even if they do have a remarkable fitness level as Smith does. Meanwhile if Smith does spend most of next season on the shelf, it’s not going to be as big a blow to the Rangers because Shesterkin will still be on the roster and they can just pull in some temp help in a minor trade or call up their #3 guy to backup Shesterkin. Here in Edmonton, if Smith gets injured we only have Koskinen to fall back on – and we’ve seen how that script plays out. Koskinen can’t handle a starter’s workload, even if only temporarily.
Cap wise this actually works out great for both teams. While Georgiev would still need a mandatory 10% raise due to his being an RFA, it still works out great for the Edmonton Oilers as he’s almost $2 million cheaper than Koskinen, so even if Holland gambles and loses on the player at least he won’t have a boat anchor contract hanging around his neck like he has with Koskinen now.
Meanwhile the Rangers get a backup to Shesterkin who, when healthy, can push him for playing time and will be at least $400,000 less in cap space while being more of a veteran presence for he team.
Marc-Andre Fleury, #29, Chicago Blackhawks Goalie Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports /
2. Edmonton Oilers sign Marc-Andre Fleury to a two year, $4 million contract plus bonuses of $1 million for games played ($2 million base cap hit, $500K bonuses per)
Marc-Andre Fleury is not the same goaltender he once was, but even at 37 years old he’s still a very capable goaltender. On a good Vegas Golden Knights team only two seasons ago he put up elite numbers of a .928 sv% and a stingy 1.98 GAA. Edmonton isn’t quite as good as Vegas is, but IMO Fleury could put up numbers close to that here.
He’s currently putting up average numbers on a rebuilding Chicago team, one in which he almost didn’t report to after being traded there by Vegas.
I think Fleury knows his big number contract days are over, and playing on the same team as Connor Mcdavid and Leon Draisaitl should hold some sway for him.
IMO he could platoon well with Georgiev and the two would push each other for starts and playing time. He’s also a fantastic fallback option for the playoffs if Georgiev doesn’t have the hot hand going into them.
After this contract is up, Fleury could easily give way to Stuart Skinner, who at least in theory should be ready to be a full time NHLer by this time. Before that, if the worst happens and Fleury ends up on the shelf for most of the season, we’ve got a capable #3 in Skinner that can come up here and take some time in the big leagues, as we’ve seen this season so no problems there.
He’s a three time Stanley Cup winner so he knows how to win, and can play a role in helping the rest of the team getting there.
And hey….age wise he’s still a better option than Mike Smith. Right?
Bottom line
With these two moves the Oilers accomplish a lot of things they need. The current age average of their goaltending is 36. That’s too old.
With these two moves – even with elder statesman Fleury in tow, the Oilers move that down to 31.5.
I don’t know about you, but that has me breathing a lot easier.
The Oilers also upgrade their talent level. Georgiev has warts in his game but is a good bouceback candidate with a change of scenery. He’s got elite level starter capability, but he’s not going to reach that in New York. It’ll likely be somewhere else, why not here?
Meanwhile Fleury has proven that, even at 37 years old, he’s at least still an NHL average goaltender at worst and still an elite goaltender at best.
This tandem, IMO, is what Koskinen-Smith was supposed to be the last couple of seasons.
It works out great cap wise too. Even taking Fleury’s bonuses into account, The Oilers would still be spending only $5.1675 million at worst on their goaltending tandem, and $4.66675 at best if Fleury doesn’t make his bonuses.
Either way it’s still much better than the $6.7 million they’re paying now for the inferior tandem of Smith-Koskinen. That cap space will be vital for what we need to do this offseason and beyond.
Better talent at a lower cap hit? That’s a GM’s dream.
