It’s no secret that the Edmonton Oilers goaltending has been a weak spot of the team this year. If it weren’t for Stuart Skinner emerging into the conversation it would’ve been a lot worse this year.
Rumour has it that Ken Holland has been aggressively shopping around for goaltending help. Whether he can get some or not at this point in the season is anyone’s guess, but I wouldn’t hold my breath unless he’s foolish enough to make a lateral move for a guy who isn’t an upgrade on either Smith or Koskinen.
I may be stating the obvious here, but if the trade deadline passes without some help coming from between the pipes, then we can consider the offseason the time to swap out the Oiler’s goaltenders. That’s where I’m thinking the change will be made.
Thankfully Mikko Koskinen’s contract is up after this season, so it’ll be easy to just let him walk.
I see two realistic potential moves in which the Edmonton Oilers could upgrade their goaltending at a lower cap hit.
Let’s get to the first one – and I’m assuming as a foregone conclusion that Koskinen will walk after the season.
1. Edmonton Oilers trade Mike Smith and a 2022 sixth round pick to the New York Rangers for the negotiating rights to Alexander Georgiev and the Ranger’s 2022 fifth round pick, and then sign him to a three year, $8.0025 million contract ($2.6675 million per season cap hit).
Alexander Georgiev was signed as a free agent from Bulgaria by the New York Rangers back in 2018. He got tapped to be a future starter, putting up elite numbers in his last season in the SM-Liiga before coming to the Rangers on a tryout and making the team.
Then Igor Shesterkin broke out in 2019-20 and Georgiev was relegated to backup. That has to sting a little for Georgiev. There were rumours flying around for a time that Georgiev asked for a trade, but those rumours were quashed late last year.
The Rangers have since signed Shesterkin to just south of $6 million a year for the next three seasons after this one. No contract extension for Georgiev, though, so for the long term the Rangers have made their choice.
Georgiev may not have asked for a trade, but he’s gotta be disappointed at the lack of playing time he’s getting in New York. That certainly would not be an issue here – he’ll get as much playing time as he earns and whatever Jay Woodcroft chooses to give him.
Further incentivizing the Rangers to trade Georgiev is the fact that his numbers have declined in limited playing time, to the point where this season he’s struggling with an .898 sv% and a 2.99 GAA.
So why would the Oilers wants him? Well, he checks off a lot of boxes for the Edmonton Oilers.
He’s 26 years old and has played 115 NHL games, so he’s not coming into the club as a raw rookie and is certainly a younger option in net as opposed to Koskinen or Smith, something the Oilers desperately need at this point in time. At 26 years old he’s in his prime producing years, and it’s reasonable to chalk up his declining numbers to mere development and dissatisfaction with his current organization, even if only privately. Georgiev’s struggles with numbers would be the reason why he wouldn’t cost much to acquire.
More importantly, we’ve seen glimpses of what Georgiev is capable of as his career highs have been a .918 sv% and a 2.71 GAA. The former is close to elite and the latter is at least NHL average.
It’s also worth nothing that even with Georgiev’s warts, he’s still proven to be better than Koskinen in career numbers. Georgiev’s .910 career sv% is better than Koskinen’s .906, that folks is the difference between above and below average. GAA is closer, but the same situation, Georgiev has a 2.95 GAA while Koskinen posts an ugly 3.00. Georgiev’s even had one more shutout then Koskinen has in his career – six to five – in only 115 career games as opposed to Koskinen’s 149.
There is risk in this move for sure, but IMO it’s a calculated risk.
Meanwhile, Mike Smith has spent most of this season injured and frankly at 39 years old it’s realistic to read the tea leaves and believe this could be a new normal for Smith instead of an aberration. NHL players who make it to his age typically get injured easier and heal slower, even if they do have a remarkable fitness level as Smith does. Meanwhile if Smith does spend most of next season on the shelf, it’s not going to be as big a blow to the Rangers because Shesterkin will still be on the roster and they can just pull in some temp help in a minor trade or call up their #3 guy to backup Shesterkin. Here in Edmonton, if Smith gets injured we only have Koskinen to fall back on – and we’ve seen how that script plays out. Koskinen can’t handle a starter’s workload, even if only temporarily.
Cap wise this actually works out great for both teams. While Georgiev would still need a mandatory 10% raise due to his being an RFA, it still works out great for the Edmonton Oilers as he’s almost $2 million cheaper than Koskinen, so even if Holland gambles and loses on the player at least he won’t have a boat anchor contract hanging around his neck like he has with Koskinen now.
Meanwhile the Rangers get a backup to Shesterkin who, when healthy, can push him for playing time and will be at least $400,000 less in cap space while being more of a veteran presence for he team.